Napoleon Delays his Return from Elba

[Douglas]

What if instead of returning from exile the year after being exiled to Elba, Napoleon's return to France was delayed either by design or by coincidence for, say, five years? What would be the result of Napoleon landing in France in 1820 rather than 1815?

 

[Thande]

Are we assuming he's not about to drop dead in 1820 like OTL?

It would be very different because people would have gotten used to him being Emperor of Elba in the background for a few years, there would be less panic than in 1815 where it was more or less the equivalent of Hitler showing up in a flying saucer in 1946.

 

[Douglas]

Are we assuming he's not about to drop dead in 1820 like OTL?

It would be very different because people would have gotten used to him being Emperor of Elba in the background for a few years, there would be less panic than in 1815 where it was more or less the equivalent of Hitler showing up in a flying saucer in 1946.

Let's say for the sake of argument that he lands in France in February 1820, and dies per OTL in May 1821. Poisoning rumors aside, he was over 50, so if it prevents veering off into a discussion about his health, we'll assume that he can retain a semblance of physical health until a week in May 1821 when he catches fever/gets shot/falls off a horse and breaks his neck.

 

[Thande]

I wonder if he would even be able to claim loyalty from the French army. On the one hand, Louis XVIII might well have made himself unpopular and the army nostalgic, but on the other hand there would have been a turnover and a lot of the men probably would have joined since Napoleon's exile.

I suppose it depends how much he remains in the French consciousness in his role as part of the European diplomatic system as Emperor of Elba. As I mentioned before, it's very different to his distant exile on St Helena.