NAFTA style Free Trade Area in Central Europe 1910

Vanity 6

What are the chances of a German/Austro-Hungarian/Romanian customs union initiated by Germany by 1910?

Advantages for Germany? Cheap labor for household help and also markets for products. Manor Houses staffed by Poles and Ukrainians. Advantages for AH and Romania? Capital investments and markets for some products. Factories opening in Galicia, Hungary and Romania.

Can German pressure cause the Magyars to relent on anti-Romanian policies to make it work?

What are the reactions of the other Powers?
 

Bad@logic

As L'Agonie d'une monarchie: L'Autriche-Hongrie 1914-1918 can attest, Austro-Hungarian business interests were heavily opposed to any customs union, and from my recollection only bowed to the proposal when Austria-Hungary had been reduced to an appendage of Germany and was completely reliant upon Germany for survival. There is no possibility of the Austro-Hungarian customs barrier wall being lowered in peace time.
 

Dathi THorfinnsson

Bad@logic said:
As L'Agonie d'une monarchie: L'Autriche-Hongrie 1914-1918 can attest, Austro-Hungarian business interests were heavily opposed to any customs union, and from my recollection only bowed to the proposal when Austria-Hungary had been reduced to an appendage of Germany and was completely reliant upon Germany for survival. There is no possibility of the Austro-Hungarian customs barrier wall being lowered in peace time.
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I would imagine that the easiest way to this goal politically would be to have the AH empire split at the seams, as it came so close to doing several times. If each bit is too small to survive on their own.....

At a guess, the business people most opposed were German speaking, and loved having the rest of the empire as a captive market. I'm sure the Galicians and Croats, say, would love to get cheaper German goods ... What the Hungarians thought, i'm not sure, but I always got the impression the Hungarian magnates were land based, not commerce based.
 

Vanity 6

I do agree about the Austrian industrialists. But some Germans did want closer ties with Germany. And looser ties with the rest of the empire.

I wonder whether the Magyars are the key here. As Austria becomes more fractious perhaps they become then fulcrum of imperial power. And they’d want cheaper German goods and a German market for their agricultural products.

I wonder if it could be structured on such a way as to be accepted. Perhaps some Austrian industries are protected. And some are not. German investment would beneficial would if not?
 
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