Muhammad Ali's Egypt a Meiji-like nation?

[EMT]

I've always though it VERY possible that Muhammad Ali and his descendants could have turned Egypt into the first of many nations that could have a Meiji-like rise of power.

To benefit them over Japan:
-close to Europe
-access to more resources than Japan
-has more prestige to it's name than Japan, Muhammad Ali got close to taking Istanbul itself(not called that yet, right?)

Cons compared to Japan
-as a muslim nation, christian europe looks down on Egypt for it's religion
-was forced to give up it's gains in western asia
-turned into a semi-british protectorate

PODs could obv. be before Egypt is forced to surrender her gains. Egypt could take Constantinople(?) and basically make the Ottomans into Bulgaria. Killing cotton off with some insanely sick disease that affects only cotton would have too many butterflies. Annexing the Ottomans entirely would put them in the same situation that the Ottomans where in, plus or minus instability and lack of historical base of power. I'm really not knowledgable about Egypt's time as a regional power post-Napoleon, but I'd personally be interested to learn a little about what happened in this time period, and more interestingly, what if Egypt came out on the better end of the stick.

EDIT: Maybe if the Egyptians refused to help the Ottomans against the Greeks, and instead allied with Russia, Britain, and France and took Syria as a war prize, keeping their navy intact? What could the effects be?

 

[Mirza Khan]

Get rid of Kheldive Ismail (successor to Muhammad Ali). Don't care how, but Egypt needs someone who can actually balance a budget to make this scenario work.

Beyond that, you have the problem that Europe didn't want Muhammad Ali (or any other Mideastern ruler) to become to powerful. When he invaded the Ottomans in OTL, the Europeans sent aid to the Ottomans to prevent him from winning (which he probably otherwise would have). While you mentioned being close to Europe as an advantage for Muhammad Ali, its probably a disadvantage compared to Japan, which didn't have any western nations breathing down its neck during the first, crucial stage of the Meji reforms. How you solve this problem with Egypt I'll leave to your imagination. (But go for it...it would be very interesting to see how an Arab nation with European-level industrialism affects colonialism).

 

[The Kiat]

Wow, Meiji is going to become the new TR.

Considering that the British are going to want control of Egypt for the sake of building a canal, I'm not sure you could keep them out.

 

[David S Poepoe]

Historically, wouldn't one still have to worry about the likes of the Urabi Revolt? Muhammad Ali and his children were not native-Egyptians and there was a ruling class of Turco-Circassian and Albanian members. The Urabi Revolt was sparked by a number of things including the Egyptian army officer's corp dislike of their non-native leaders. Historically the modernization of Egypt eventually saw the dismissal of the pasha/king by a military coup in the 20th century.

Also I would consider it harder for a muslim country to modernize, along the lines of Meiji Japan, if it doesn't get all portions of society behind. Just as the Japanese eventually forced the samurai into retirement will there be an 'Ataturk' sort of equivalent to cowl muslim holy men (brain's giving out here with the correct term).

 

[stevep]

Considering that the British are going to want control of Egypt for the sake of building a canal, I'm not sure you could keep them out.

Not really. It was French money and expertise that build the canal in the 1st place. Britain only got involved because the Khadivate became bankrupt and Britain had the funds to buy it, as well as the interest in controlling such a key route.

Similarly it was only the disorder that resulted from the breakdown of the Khadivate that dragged Gladstone, an arch anti-imperialist, into Egypt because of its importance. He was desperate to avoid a prolonged entanglement.

Steve

 

[IMP CAES AVG]

I'm afraid do not see why proximity to Europe should be regarded as an asset in the case of Egypt. Japan was able to successfully undertake the Meiji reforms precisely because it was still relatively isolated from the European powers. Also, because of its proximity to Europe, the Great Powers would never permit a reformed Egypt to do to the Ottoman Empire what Meiji Japan did to China. After all, once the Suez Canal is built, it is nearly inevitable that Egypt will come under the control of a European power, most likely France.

 

[Saepe Fidelis]

If Egypt aligned with Russia and Austria then she would have enough allies at least i nthe early 19th century to industrialise. All the obove powers want a weakened Ottoman Empire. If she secures these alliances and doesn't borrow too profusely then it could stand a chance of remaining independent. However, it couldn't be a power on par with Meiji- Japan this late in the game. There are too many European predators circling Africa, eager to carve it up. the Suez Canal would be too lucrative an oppurtunity for GB to resist or indeed France. If she does gain indepndence then she will almost definitely end up a client state to someone, however she could become powerful enough to become a dsired ally and power-broker (a la early 18th century Prussia- not too powerful but crucial to hte balance of power) and indeed may gain an independent voice at the Berlin Confererence, possibly expanding into Sudan and Libya etc. however will she be a great power? Most likely not I'm afraid.

 

[mowque]

I'm afraid do not see why proximity to Europe should be regarded as an asset in the case of Egypt. Japan was able to successfully undertake the Meiji reforms precisely because it was still relatively isolated from the European powers. Also, because of its proximity to Europe, the Great Powers would never permit a reformed Egypt to do to the Ottoman Empire what Meiji Japan did to China. After all, once the Suez Canal is built, it is nearly inevitable that Egypt will come under the control of a European power, most likely France.

Beat me to it. Being close to Europe tends to be negative.

 

[Andrelvis]

Best option for Egypt to industrialize successfully would probably be to not mess with the Ottomans too much; getting at most Syria and that's it.