For my MotF entry, I plan to do a scenario where France is in the *Central Powers, and Germany is in the *Allies. What is a plausible scenario I can use to make this happen? Perhaps a French victory in the Franco-Prussian War or something like that?
Most plausible scenario for a CP France and Allied Germany in WW1
- Thread starter DPKdebator
- Start date
Frnace gets white peace in F-P war and Germnay unites slowly
France allies with A-H, Bulgaria and Russia
Germany allies with UK, Italy, Serbia and Ottomans
Best I can do
If Wilhelm I died somewhat earlier than he did, then that would give Fritz more time on the throne (other than his 90 days or so). Fritz, and his English wife, Victoria wanted to build a Germany with a constitutional monarchy. If they take the throne earlier they can build this. Also perhaps try and avoid having a disabled Wilhelm II, so that way his relationship with his mother is less hostile.
FF lives, A-H focuses on internal reform, rather than Serbian adventures.
In 1916-7, Russia, with a brand spanking new army and seeking a short victorious war to stem the tide of revolution, and France, whose leadership plays the Alsace-Lorraine card, find a casus belli against Germany.
Through naked opportunism (Tsingtao and the Bismarck Archipelago), and treaties (Anglo-Japanese and over Belgium) and fears for the Great Game (Afghanistan, Iran, and India), Japan and the UK side with Berlin.
Austria-Hungary can sit it out or enter on Germany's side, as can Turkey. Italy will do the same on Russia's side - though Italian entry guarantees A-H involvement.
In 1916-7, Russia, with a brand spanking new army and seeking a short victorious war to stem the tide of revolution, and France, whose leadership plays the Alsace-Lorraine card, find a casus belli against Germany.
Through naked opportunism (Tsingtao and the Bismarck Archipelago), and treaties (Anglo-Japanese and over Belgium) and fears for the Great Game (Afghanistan, Iran, and India), Japan and the UK side with Berlin.
Austria-Hungary can sit it out or enter on Germany's side, as can Turkey. Italy will do the same on Russia's side - though Italian entry guarantees A-H involvement.
If the Austro-Prussian (and maybe Franco-Prussian) War go(es) differently, and France stays friendly and allied to Austria-Hungary against a slightly less strong Germany...it wouldn't be unnatural for such a Germany to partner with Russia and that creates the rough shape of the alliances for the future Great War. Now the bigger problem is how to have France keep this unwise foreign policy long enough until it blows up into a major war, but it's not impossible.
In any case, Italy, Serbia, Romania etc. would have an interest in fighting on the Russo-German side, the Ottoman Empire would have some interest in fighting on the Franco-Austrian side, and events related to them could also serve as the catalyst for the war. So the sides could look much like in OTL except France and Germany are switched, and Britain is presumably neutral.
In any case, Italy, Serbia, Romania etc. would have an interest in fighting on the Russo-German side, the Ottoman Empire would have some interest in fighting on the Franco-Austrian side, and events related to them could also serve as the catalyst for the war. So the sides could look much like in OTL except France and Germany are switched, and Britain is presumably neutral.
Perkeo
Banned
Germany chooses Russia over Austria as their primary ally.
France allys with Austria instead of Russia.
Germany takes care not to antagonize Britain and France doesn't (rather than vice-versa IOTL).
So we have the alliances:
"CP": France-Austria-Ottoman
"Entente": Britain-Germany-Russia
However, the naming of the alliances is unlikely in this case...
France allys with Austria instead of Russia.
Germany takes care not to antagonize Britain and France doesn't (rather than vice-versa IOTL).
So we have the alliances:
"CP": France-Austria-Ottoman
"Entente": Britain-Germany-Russia
However, the naming of the alliances is unlikely in this case...
I don't see Britain allying with their two primary opponents on the continent.
Perkeo
Banned
Russia wasn't a primary opponent IOTL, it was Britain's ally.
Germany also kept good relations until they started a naval race.
OTOH the weakness of TTL's "Central Powers" does make it harder for Britain to join TTL's "Entente"
Russia was a primary opponent over Central Asia and had consistently been so for almost a century.
Only Tirpitz's ambition temporarily balanced the Russian threat to India. In a scenario with an allied Germany, that pretty much guarantees that the British perception of Russia reverts to the SOP for the bulk of the 19th century - a competitor for influence particularly in Afghanistan and Persia.
Austria is a problem, they aren't going to sign their death warrant by allying against both Russia and Germany. What good does a French alliance do them? France would never commit to a war with a doomed Austria as its main ally either.
A Personal Union between Britain and Germany?
ALLof Queen Victoria's sons predecease her and the line of succession runs through her eldest daughter Victoria, Princess Royal, wife of Frederick III, mother of Wilhelm II.
ALLof Queen Victoria's sons predecease her and the line of succession runs through her eldest daughter Victoria, Princess Royal, wife of Frederick III, mother of Wilhelm II.
Perkeo
Banned
If the Ottomans join the CP from beginning and Romania and Bulgaria are both on their side, they might.
France wouldn't have planned such a commitment, but that doesn't exclude it ends up doing so. Germany's commitment was not fully thought through and ill-advised IOTL in 1914, as was the French in 1871.
The Entente would absolutely demolish the CP with these alliances, I should think.
If OTL Germany allied with OTL Russia, France/AH wouldn't dare to go up against them. The disparity between the two sides is just too big. However, say German unification goes differently, with some sort of alternate Franco-Prussian war that ends with France controlling everything up to the Rhine, and AH in a stronger position. Germany still unifies later on, but with Prussia in a less dominant position. Germany would be poorer, weaker, viewed as less of a military powerhouse, and virulently anti-French/Austrian. In this case, you could possibly get a war where France and AH gamble on a quick campaign knocking out *Germany before moving on to deal with Russia over the Carpathians.
Another possibility is a catastrophic Russian revolution during the Russo-Japanese war completely upsetting the balance of power and shuffling the alliance deck.
Another possibility is a catastrophic Russian revolution during the Russo-Japanese war completely upsetting the balance of power and shuffling the alliance deck.
Russia had been Britain's primary continental opponent since Napoleon was toppled. They fought in the Crimean War and were constantly competing in Central Asia. It was the threat of Germany which had suddenly started to muscle in on their ambitions (the Berlin-Baghdad Railroad for instance), which both viewed as a threat to themselves. There is no way Britain is allying with both Germany and Russia. A few years later and they might ally with Germany against Russia, but it will be one or the other, not both.
Why would Romania join their side? Allying with Russia and Germany is a sure way to get Transylvania, and they've no real chance of beating off a Russian invasion. There's also Italy and Serbia. Austria would be completely enveloped by enemies with claims on its territory, with no real prospect of direct aid from any allies. Why would Bulgaria or the Ottomans want to commit so heavily and early to what would be obvious to everyone as a doomed prospect?