Most likely new nations in the next 5 years

The Ubbergeek said:
Line of tolerence... Sad fact that they have to stand and follow a dictature...


How about a full Timor? Some say that the western side of the island may join in independnace too...

Why would it? As far as I can make out all talk of 'great Timor' had been from Indonesian agitators who use it to speak of a spectre of domino fall... same goes for PNG. Besides, both PNG and East Timor are failing states... Indonesia isn't great, and West Papua and West Timor are the bad parts of Indonesia... but it's better than anarchy.
 
There's been an active West Papuan independence movement for some time- it's like East Timor, it was supposed to become independant but Indonesia invaded it as soon as the Dutch left.
 
Imajin said:
There's been an active West Papuan independence movement for some time- it's like East Timor, it was supposed to become independant but Indonesia invaded it as soon as the Dutch left.

That would make an interesting scenario.
 
The Ubbergeek said:
As far I know, the papoos have problems with the indonesian malays majority, so they have a point....

Oh, sure, and they are not too happy at suddenly becoming 'Iriyan Jaya', either. But dissatisfaction isn't the same as running away for a trainwreck...
 
Justin Pickard said:
As a new nation? Not yet. I'd say that even in 50-60 years we'd still be looking at something vaguely confederal.


I think you're pessimistic.

IMO, we'll have some sort of EU confederacy ( hopefully on the swiss model ) in 20 to 30 years. Could be more, could be less, depending on events, but I think about a generation is the time needed.
 
Somaliland (gaining wider recognition.)
Kosovo (Really inevitable at this point.)
Palestine (Most of the West Bank, and/or all of Gaza)
French Guiana (not likely, but if the divide widens between Washington and Paris, and events in Fr. Guyana are supportive.)
Western Sahara (Maybe the focus on it will increase.)
Eastern South Africa (maybe called "Kaapstadt?")
West Papua (Indonesia is not in great shape, but neither is PNG, I supose.)
 
How about Greenland? It's pretty autonomous these days, right?

There's also a lot of island territories in the Pacific and in the Caribbean that I could see going independent... Aruba, French Polynesia, and the Cook Islands, for example.
 
Tokelau. Granted, it'd still be heavily reliant on New Zealand, but a majority voted for independence last time. It's only a matter of time...
 
Arent some or all of the Dutch Carribean islands supposed to gain independence soon-ish?

I do wonder about an independent Scotland. Oh someone asked about Wales-it has an assembly but in no way could it be thought of as a seperate country. All matters such as defence, foreign policy are handled centrally. In addition Plaid Cymru (I believe) does not favour indepdence for Wales, only greater home rule (unlike the Scottish Nationalists)-plus I'm not convinced an indepedent Wales would be as large as Wales is today.

What about the Basque regions, is there any real chance they will become independent?
I suppose there is also the possibilty of a revivied West Indies Federation.
 
Jason said:
Arent some or all of the Dutch Carribean islands supposed to gain independence soon-ish?

There was a referendum about independence there, they all voted against independence (I know a couple of Dutch people who dislike that, because they think the islands cost too much). Now the Dutch antilles will split up an curacao ans sint maarten wil become (like aruba is now) autonomous parts of the kingdom of the Netherlands and bonaire, saba and sint eustatius will get closer ties to the netherlands.
 
Indonesia could well fall apart. West Timor, West Papua, and possibly Bali, as they all have religious and/or ethnic differences with the majority Javans (who dominate the nation). It's not an imminent proposition, though.

In the area, it's vaguely possible that Malaya and Sarawak will split, although it's not too likely in the imminent future.

Kosovo and perhaps Vojvodina may split from Serbia.

The Sudan may fall apart - a southern Christian Sudan, a northern/central Muslim one, and Darfur might become independent or a part of Chad (Janjaweed violence is spreading into Chad, and the Chadians are not happy about it).

Somaliland is basically already independent of Somalia. Puntland may strive for similar recognition.

Iraq might fall apart into 2 or 3 states. Iran is less likely but might have a Kurdish and/or Azeri separatist movement in the northwest. Kurdistan is top on the new nation list.

Chechnya and some of the other south Russian provinces are trying very hard to gain independence, I don't know if they'll achieve it... Russia is trying to keep them just as hard.

Separatist movements amidst the Basques, in Catalonia, Quebec, Puerto Rico, and possibly Brittany or Corsica might succeed.

Northern Italy has an independence movement, they haven't been terribly succesful though.

French Guiana is a definite possibility, although the Guyanas in general are actually among the most likely places to join the US (Guyana in particular has a strong US annexation movement).

Turkey has the Kurds in the southwest and possibly other minorities in the Northwest to deal with.

Georgia has some rebellious provinces that might try a further independence move.

Transdnestria is an issue for Moldova, it may become formally independent or a part of Russia or the Ukraine.

Zimbabwe might do a Somalia in the next few years. Oppressive regime + major economic disruptions due to said regime and AIDS = crazy stuff.
 
You forget also Aceh, who have still the idea of independance in head even if the local guerila have a cease-ire. They are a region of indonesia with some cultural difference, and a more orthodoxe Islam.
 
Justin Pickard said:
Realistically, within 5 years? Two or three of the following:

- Kaliningrad / Konigsburg - increasingly anti-Russian & pro-European. Can envisage as a Baltic 'free city' and tax haven; "the Monaco of the North".

- Basque Country - with ETA agreeing to a cease fire, I think that reasonable negotiation may soon have some headway.

- Quebec - narrow margin defeated the referendum for independence in the mid 90s. I think that the War on Terror might have polarised opinion to the extent that an independent Quebec could emphasise ties with France over ties with the US.

- French Guyana - one of the last bastions of colonialism. Don't think, from what I've heard, that the indigenous folks are particularly happy with their reliance on the French.

- Puerto Rico - US state or country? Nobody seems quite sure, but it'll have to go one way or the other soon...

- Somaliland - you know the drill. Practically got its own independent infrastructure and necessary state institutions. All it's really waiting on is international recognition.

Although this is a very parochial point of view, about the only ones of these that have any day-to-day significance to the US would be Königsberg (as a tax haven for the wealthy) and Quebec. Quebec would have sizable practical significance, in that it would probably kick loose an avalanche of events that could lead to the disappearance of Canada as a nation.

Statehood for Puerto Rico seems unlikely: the cultural gulf is a very wide one to bridge. No, I don't think the same argument holds for the Maritime Provinces: they're largely similar to Maine, for example, to varying degrees--and they're predominantly Anglophone, unlike Puerto Rico.

And although there may be a strong annexation move in French Guyana, will someone please explain why on earth the US would want to do that?
 
1940LaSalle said:
Although this is a very parochial point of view, about the only ones of these that have any day-to-day significance to the US would be Königsberg (as a tax haven for the wealthy) and Quebec.

That's nice. But there is more to the world than the US.

1940LaSalle said:
Quebec would have sizable practical significance, in that it would probably kick loose an avalanche of events that could lead to the disappearance of Canada as a nation.

How so? I'd be interested...

1940LaSalle said:
And although there may be a strong annexation move in French Guyana, will someone please explain why on earth the US would want to do that?

Um...the US wouldn't. French Guyana would declare independence from France?
 
I think the collapse of Canada following the secession of Quebec is very unlikely. I would think that it would result in a greater unification of Canada, as culturally the nation would be more unified. I don't think Canada and Quebec would have too bad relations at all, or that Canada would annex the northern provinces of Quebec... I mean, Serbia, a nation far more prone to making rash moves against neighboring nations, didn't try to hold on to Northern Montenegro, which voted against secession.
 
You could get Flanders, if Belgium falls apart. Interesting question is what would happen to Brussels (City-State, staying with Wallonia in residual Belgium?), and whether Wallonia would join France.
 
Kosovo, Palestine, Somaliland, Southern Sudan and Western Sahara are my candidates for the most likely.

The majority of Kosovars do not want to be part of Serbia and I cannot see them even accepting autonomy. Perhaps the status quo will continue, but how viable is this in the long term?

Palestine if some sort of Middle East peace accord can be hammered out, though I am not so sure. I do agree with an above comment that it looks too much like a Bantustan right now.

I actually think Somaliland has a good chance of getting international recognition since the takeover of Mogadishu by Islamist extremists. Perhaps Puntland too, though Somaliland seems to gain more press.

Southern Sudan seems all but inevitable since they are planning to hold a referendum there in 2011.

With Western Sahara it seems that Morocco has been somewhat more cooperative. It could become independent, but then again the Moroccans have held on for thirty years.

There are a few other places that I would say could be likely. Among them, West Papua The Indonesians took over the place over 40 years ago, but have swamped the area with Malay settlers so who knows how strong an independence movement would be.

Perhaps Catalonia and the Basque Country, though Spain has managed to hold on until now, so I think greater autonomy is more likely.

If China's political situation were to become volatile, I could see Tibet and maybe Uighurstan breaking off.

There are lots of other places like Northern Ireland, Quebec, etc but I do not see these areas becoming independent soon.
 
Kurdistan will become a nation state because I think that's what Kurds really want and right now the only thing keeping it from happening is the US staying there. Probably this will lead Turkey to invade northern Iraq (Kurdistan) in an attempt to stop it so that Kurds in eastern Turkey won't split off to join their region to the new country. But it won't work, and in the end, part of Turkey and part of Iraq and maybe even part of Iran will be Kurdistan.

This might lead Iran to invade southern Iraq, and help Shiite areas around Basra to separate themselves from Iraq. This would lead to a state of South Iraq, though effectively it would be a satellite state of Iran.

Finally, if there is enough of a cease fire between Israel and the Palestinians, I can envision Israel withdrawing from certain areas of the West Bank. In most places, settlements would be abandoned in a manner similar to what happened in the Gaza Strip. However, in a few places, notably in Hebron, settlers would resist the Israeli military. This would lead to an armed conflict and ultimately Israel, unable politically to use too much force against the settlers, would withdraw, and the Hebronite settlers would promise to become Palestinian citizens (much like the settlers in Texas agreed to become Mexacan citizens with no intention of actually living as Mexicans). In the end the former Israeli Hebronites would either create their own state or be annihilated by the Palestinians. Actually, maybe this requires more than 5 years.
 
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