Most likely Form of Government following a White Victory in the RCW

[powerthirteen]

Better in what way is the question. Even if the reds lose, they’re going to need to give something to the people or the same problems that lead to the revolution are going to remain.

Good point made here.

Maybe, maybe not.

I mean, part of the problem is that the Whites were so diverse a group that, had they managed to defeat the Bolsheviks, there probably would have been a second Civil War to decide exactly who gets to be in charge. And from that point, anything goes. A Russian-version of the Nazis or Khmer Rouge is as possible as a Russian-version of the Continental Congress or the Kemalists or whatever.

Stalin and, to a lesser extent, Lenin winning the Civil War were a pretty bad result for Russia. But it's perfectly conceivable they might have wound-up with even worse.

The main White leaders who had a serious shot at power were Denikin, Kolchak and Wrangel, all of whom saw Germany as the grater enemy/threat compared to the US, the UK and France, and would have been prepared to enter an "alliance" of convenience of sorts with the West in order to crush any potential revanchist Germany, on the given conditions that they are also allowed to annex Finland and Poland, both of which all of them considered to be "rightful" Russian territories.

Given how the rise of Lenin and Stalin during the 1917 October Revolution in Russia and the fear of global Communist revolution was one of the key fundamental reasons why Mussolini and Hitler were able to seize power in Italy and Germany, I believe that it is pretty safe to say that a White victory during the Civil War would have precluded the rise of fascism and Nazism during the inter-war era due to the Bolsheviks and the Mensheviks having been discredited by the Red defeat in the Civil War.

With the Japanese-aligned von Ungern-Sternberg in control of Mongolia and Siberia and a potential pro-Japanese Chinese government installed in Beijing/Northern China by similarly sympathetic warlord, the GEACPS could potentially have been formed in the 1920s, resulting in the fulfillment of the Hokushin-Ron/Strike North Group faction within the IJA/IJN and precluding any fundamental need for further Japanese militarism.

Even if Russia falls to China-esque warlordism as a result of this entire mess, the prevention of the rise of fascism and Nazism is still a better outcome than most.

 

[marktaha]

They would all fight each other if the reds were not a threat. There is no way Kerenskyite socialists and Tsarists are ever getting along. It was the Kerenskyites who overthrew the Czar

They would all fight each other if the reds were not a threat. There is no way Kerenskyite socialists and Tsarists are ever getting along. It was the Kerenskyites who overthrew the Czar in the first place.

Were there any Kerenskyites fighting?

 

[Lee-Sensei]

Good point made here.


The main White leaders who had a serious shot at power were Denikin, Kolchak and Wrangel, all of whom saw Germany as the grater enemy/threat compared to the US, the UK and France, and would have been prepared to enter an "alliance" of convenience of sorts with the West in order to crush any potential revanchist Germany, on the given conditions that they are also allowed to annex Finland and Poland, both of which all of them considered to be "rightful" Russian territories.

Given how the rise of Lenin and Stalin during the 1917 October Revolution in Russia and the fear of global Communist revolution was one of the key fundamental reasons why Mussolini and Hitler were able to seize power in Italy and Germany, I believe that it is pretty safe to say that a White victory during the Civil War would have precluded the rise of fascism and Nazism during the inter-war era due to the Bolsheviks and the Mensheviks having been discredited by the Red defeat in the Civil War.

With the Japanese-aligned von Ungern-Sternberg in control of Mongolia and Siberia and a potential pro-Japanese Chinese government installed in Beijing/Northern China by similarly sympathetic warlord, the GEACPS could potentially have been formed in the 1920s, resulting in the fulfillment of the Hokushin-Ron/Strike North Group faction within the IJA/IJN and precluding any fundamental need for further Japanese militarism.

Even if Russia falls to China-esque warlordism as a result of this entire mess, the prevention of the rise of fascism and Nazism is still a better outcome than most.

Nazism seems unique. I don’t know that it would ever stand a chance of winning out in Russia since it was partially rooted in 19th century nordicism. It would be more likely that a standard conservative/nationalist authoritarian regime like the regimes in Italy and Iberia would take hold in Russia (replacing Catholicism with Russian Orthodoxy), although they’ll still have to give the people something or the problems that lead to the revolution would linger. Whether that would be better than Soviet Russia is up in the air, but either way... Russia would be in for a tyrannical government and a lot of bloodshed.

 

[powerthirteen]

Nazism seems unique. I don’t know that it would ever stand a chance of winning out in Russia since it was partially rooted in 19th century nordicism. It would be more likely that a standard conservative/nationalist authoritarian regime like regimes in Italy and Iberia would take hold in Russia (replacing Catholicism with Russian Orthodoxy), although they’ll still have to give the people something or the problems that lead to the revolution would linger. Whether that would be better than Soviet Russia is up in the air, but either way... Russia would be in for a tyrannical government and a lot of bloodshed.

As I have said earlier, even the worst White victory is much better than the best Red victory.

 

[Deleted member 90949]

Were there any Kerenskyites fighting?

Pretty much the entire Socialist Revolutionary Party sided with the Whites, although some defected to the Bolsheviks.

The frontman for the Whites was an SR.

The SR government was also the one recognized by the intervening Allies. The Tsarist Kolchak was only given support by them under the condition that he signed a paper recognizing the SR as the legitimate government of Russia.

 

[Alexniko]

The SR government was also the one recognized by the intervening Allies. The Tsarist Kolchak was only given support by them under the condition that he signed a paper recognizing the SR as the legitimate government of Russia.

Do you have a source for that? Since the Kolchak I've read about had no more love for the SRs than he had for the Bolsheviks. To quote himself:

"The general opinion...was that only a government authorized by the Constituent Assembly could be a real one; but the Constituent Assembly which we got...and which from the very beginning started in by singing the 'Internationale' under Chernov's leadership, provoked an unfriendly attitude...It was considered to have been an artificial and a partisan assembly. Such was also my opinion. I believed that even though the Bolsheviks had few worthy traits, by dispersing the Constituent Assembly they performed a service and this act should be counted to their credit."

After he (or rather the officers in his name, Kolchak played a rather passive role in the coup of November 18th) overthrew the very government you mentioned, his regime cracked down brutally on not only the Bolsheviks but all self-described socialists. To quote Orlando Figes' "A People's Tragedy":

"For several weeks after the coup, Kolchak’s police carried out a series of bloody reprisals against SR activists. Hundreds were arrested — many as ‘hostages’ to be executed in the event of SR acts of terror against the dictatorship. Among the hostages in Omsk were twenty SR deputies of the Constituent Assembly, ten of whom were shot in December following a workers’ uprising in the town."

 

[Ijon Tichy]

Good point made here.


The main White leaders who had a serious shot at power were Denikin, Kolchak and Wrangel, all of whom saw Germany as the grater enemy/threat compared to the US, the UK and France, and would have been prepared to enter an "alliance" of convenience of sorts with the West in order to crush any potential revanchist Germany, on the given conditions that they are also allowed to annex Finland and Poland, both of which all of them considered to be "rightful" Russian territories.

Given how the rise of Lenin and Stalin during the 1917 October Revolution in Russia and the fear of global Communist revolution was one of the key fundamental reasons why Mussolini and Hitler were able to seize power in Italy and Germany, I believe that it is pretty safe to say that a White victory during the Civil War would have precluded the rise of fascism and Nazism during the inter-war era due to the Bolsheviks and the Mensheviks having been discredited by the Red defeat in the Civil War.

With the Japanese-aligned von Ungern-Sternberg in control of Mongolia and Siberia and a potential pro-Japanese Chinese government installed in Beijing/Northern China by similarly sympathetic warlord, the GEACPS could potentially have been formed in the 1920s, resulting in the fulfillment of the Hokushin-Ron/Strike North Group faction within the IJA/IJN and precluding any fundamental need for further Japanese militarism.

Even if Russia falls to China-esque warlordism as a result of this entire mess, the prevention of the rise of fascism and Nazism is still a better outcome than most.

I get where you're coming from in your third paragraph, but the threat of working-class revolution in interwar Europe didn't just come from Lenin and his heirs. Workers' revolution was a possible item on the menu because of the social problems of that era, and those problems don't go away just because the Bolshies aren't around. Those problems could be solved by peaceful reforms, but if you're an Italian or German landlord or factory owner, or one of their petit-bourgeois sympathisers, are you going to go for those reforms, or are you going to resort to the iron fist in both domestic and foreign policy?

 

[powerthirteen]

I get where you're coming from in your third paragraph, but the threat of working-class revolution in interwar Europe didn't just come from Lenin and his heirs. Workers' revolution was a possible item on the menu because of the social problems of that era, and those problems don't go away just because the Bolshies aren't around. Those problems could be solved by peaceful reforms, but if you're an Italian or German landlord or factory owner, or one of their petit-bourgeois sympathisers, are you going to go for those reforms, or are you going to resort to the iron fist in both domestic and foreign policy?

The co-ordination of many of these workers' rights/left-wing agitation movements became possible in the first place due to the Moscow Comintern.

 

[Ijon Tichy]

The co-ordination of many of these workers' rights/left-wing agitation movements became possible in the first place due to the Moscow Comintern.

But the Comintern wasn't the only co-ordinating body at the time, or before. One of the worst things about the Comintern was that it reduced the workers' movement, or significant sections of it, to a tool of Russian great-power foreign policy. Absent that distortion, the workers agitational capacity might have been even greater, and might have won - or might have been slapped down even harder by those who wore top hats and coloured shirts.

 

[powerthirteen]

But the Comintern wasn't the only co-ordinating body at the time, or before. One of the worst things about the Comintern was that it reduced the workers' movement, or significant sections of it, to a tool of Russian great-power foreign policy. Absent that distortion, the workers agitational capacity might have been even greater, and might have won - or might have been slapped down even harder by those who wore top hats and coloured shirts.

The precise reason why fascism/Nazism's foreign policy was validated in the 1920s and the 1930s was due to the international threat of Communism coming out from the Soviet Union.

With workers' agitation movements scattered around the globe and un-coordinated with each other, it is far more likely that the right-wing, conservative(not fascist/Nazi) governments generally running Europe at the time would simply have followed the example of the Whites and crushed their various rebellions and strikes as they did so before 1914.

 

[Reggieperrin]

As I have said earlier, even the worst White victory is much better than the best Red victory.

I don’t know why it seems to be such an ideé fixe on this board that defeat of the bolshies will inevitably lead to an improved outcome. OTL the period since the revolution seems to have been characterised by repeated cycles of:

• subject nations attempting to squirm out from under Moscow’s boot at every opportunity, shortly followed by muscovite revanchism at their first opportunity
• economic collapses and temporary revival driven by commodity export prices
• internecine feuding over power and wealth among the ruling elite

and this is with a relative stable and centralized apparatus ruled with an iron fist by whoever was bossing the kremlin and secret police. IMO it’s not at all implausible that after stomping out the reds the 347 different factions of whites could go in some very bad directions such as:

1. A knock-down fight for the office of Tsar/President For Life, with whichever faction is ascendant splintering into backstabbing, repeatedly.
2. Dividing up the spoils into conveniently-looted portions for milking by whoever has greased enough palms to be awarded an office, and never mind who is dying of what outside the palace walls.
3. Lunatic ethno-nationalism of every flavour that involves killing people you don’t like the look or sound of

Or indeed combinations of the above, for decades. With Germany, Poland, Japan, Turkey etc sticking their oar in whenever circumstances permit.

That could very easily leave the former Russia looking like an earlier, vastly larger, version of the Yugoslav civil war or Zaire or Sudan, or any number of similar horrible scenarios we have seen play out over the decades. Its not like we’re short of examples of ‘war turns poor country with weak institutions into hellhole where civilians die like flies‘.
Kill off 1-2% of the population every year for a decade or two and not only is it a wash with red atrocities but the country is even more wrecked than OTL.

 

[powerthirteen]

I don’t know why it seems to be such an ideé fixe on this board that defeat of the bolshies will inevitably lead to an improved outcome. OTL the period since the revolution seems to have been characterised by repeated cycles of:

• subject nations attempting to squirm out from under Moscow’s boot at every opportunity, shortly followed by muscovite revanchism at their first opportunity
• economic collapses and temporary revival driven by commodity export prices
• internecine feuding over power and wealth among the ruling elite

and this is with a relative stable and centralized apparatus ruled with an iron fist by whoever was bossing the kremlin and secret police. IMO it’s not at all implausible that after stomping out the reds the 347 different factions of whites could go in some very bad directions such as:

1. A knock-down fight for the office of Tsar/President For Life, with whichever faction is ascendant splintering into backstabbing, repeatedly.
2. Dividing up the spoils into conveniently-looted portions for milking by whoever has greased enough palms to be awarded an office, and never mind who is dying of what outside the palace walls.
3. Lunatic ethno-nationalism of every flavour that involves killing people you don’t like the look or sound of

Or indeed combinations of the above, for decades. With Germany, Poland, Japan, Turkey etc sticking their oar in whenever circumstances permit.

That could very easily leave the former Russia looking like an earlier, vastly larger, version of the Yugoslav civil war or Zaire or Sudan, or any number of similar horrible scenarios we have seen play out over the decades. Its not like we’re short of examples of ‘war turns poor country with weak institutions into hellhole where civilians die like flies‘.
Kill off 1-2% of the population every year for a decade or two and not only is it a wash with red atrocities but the country is even more wrecked than OTL.

No Lenin, Stalin et al. = No Hitler or Mussolini.
Nuff' said.

 

[Gukpard]

I mean, part of the problem is that the Whites were so diverse a group that, had they managed to defeat the Bolsheviks, there probably would have been a second Civil War to decide exactly who gets to be in charge. And from that point, anything goes. A Russian-version of the Nazis or Khmer Rouge is as possible as a Russian-version of the Continental Congress or the Kemalists or whatever.

Stalin and, to a lesser extent, Lenin winning the Civil War were a pretty bad result for Russia. But it's perfectly conceivable they might have wound-up with even worse.

Something to consider is that as bad Lenin was, he did do some basic things like created a free education system that alone was better than anything the white officers could plan.

 

[powerthirteen]

Something to consider is that as bad Lenin was, he did do some basic things like created a free education system that alone was better than anything the white officers could plan.

Having the moderate Kerenskyite socialists take over once the civil war is over would also have implemented the same reforms.

 

[Masteroftheuniverse]

A shaky democracy, followed by a descent into fascist or military dictatorship. Whatever the government, viciously anti-semitic.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

A shaky democracy, followed by a descent into fascist or military dictatorship. Whatever the government, viciously anti-semitic.

If not viciously anti Semetic certainly Slavic or Russian nationalist to the point of Facisim. Pan Slavic to the point where it frightens the Germans, Hungarians, Rumanians with further territorial loss & economic warfare. German leaders & voters are going to see this new Russia absorbing Poland as anathema. Instead of the Bolshevik threat from the east its the Slavic threat. German demagogues can connect the Jews to that if they like.

 

[powerthirteen]

If not viciously anti Semetic certainly Slavic or Russian nationalist to the point of Facisim. Pan Slavic to the point where it frightens the Germans, Hungarians, Rumanians with further territorial loss & economic warfare. German leaders & voters are going to see this new Russia absorbing Poland as anathema. Instead of the Bolshevik threat from the east its the Slavic threat. German demagogues can connect the Jews to that if they like.

Then that means that the DNVP comes into power instead of Hitler and the NSDAP.

 

[Crazy Boris]

I figure some manner of authoritarian republic. Who it would be under and how it would act is anyone’s guess, as others have said as soon as the commies are out of the picture the white movement is gonna fracture.

Something along the lines of a less-fascist version of Franco’s Spain could be likely once the dust settles and Russia starts to stabilize.

I think a big factor as to how this government will act is going to be stuff outside of Russia, especially with Germany, Japan, and any countries that broke off of Russia and survived the civil war (Finland, Poland, possibly Ukraine, Caucasus and Baltic states etc.), since depending on what these potential enemies and rivals do during the interwar period and relations with these breakaway states (possible allies or future conquests?) it’s going to have a role in Russia deciding how it wants to run things.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Then that means that the DNVP comes into power instead of Hitler and the NSDAP.

Or Hitler adapts his rant. the threat is Jewsh led Slavs. He frequently played to his audience & could be flexible in his political policy.

 

[powerthirteen]

Or Hitler adapts his rant. the threat is Jewsh led Slavs. He frequently played to his audience & could be flexible in his political policy.

Considering how virtually every White general at the time with serious designs on power were heavily and often murderously anti-semitic in the case of the Tsarist Black Hundreds, I fully expect this rant to fall flat on its face.