Funny how South Africa and Australia did not consider Jews to be hyperwhite as in our day. I suspect South Africa would be the main destination with a broad divide between those who accept Aparteid and those who don't. The former will likely take the attitude we will not let anyone else take what little we have from us. Wild card to throw in would be Haile Selassie taking them all in.
Most Likely Destination of Jewish Refugees and Fate of Judaism After Holocaust with No Israel?
- Thread starter PGSBHurricane
- Start date
I personally disagree with the first matter. It's important to note that most of the surviving European Jews in the Holocaust were Orthodox. Also, keep in mind that the Jews of Israel during its early statehood days were less religious than those outside of Israel since Zionism was more of a secular movement than a religious one. As for the second matter, I agree that the Jewish community would be pushing to allow the government to let in more Jewish refugees. The question is, would the government listen? It's possible that due to being afraid of being flooded with refugees that the answer could be no. IOTL, 140,000 Jews from Europe came to the USA and that was largely after most had chosen to go to Palestine. Ultimately, of the Jewish emigrants that settled in the USA after the war, most came from the Soviet Union (about 450,000 or 65-75% from my research) and that was after the US quota system was abolished in 1965-68. So I don't know if the USA would be willing to accept 3-4 million Jews (I'm counting the Soviet Jews as well as those from the Middle East and North Africa who would likely be pressured to leave assuming the Cold War runs its course much like OTL).
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Not as sure about Pakistan but I agree India would be happy to accept some (just a matter of how many). The PODs I'm looking at are if the Balfour Declaration was never issued in 1917 so that the idea of a Jewish homeland in Palestine doesn't really take off, or if Israel loses the War or 1948 to the point where essentially all Jews in Palestine are forced to evacuate.
As mentioned earlier, South Africa would be a complicated case and could really go either way. Australia is also interesting since Australia's Jewish population tripled between 1939 and 1961 largely due to immigration but anti-semitism also grew there during this time (had been rare there previously despite the rejection of the Kimberly Plan) at least partially due to the affairs in the Middle East. Would be interesting to see what happens in this scenario.
In 1947, Pakistan would probably be far happier than India to accept a significant amount. India might actually prove a hard-sell with the Hindu nationalists who were already flexing their muscles,, until the Gandhi assasination set them back for two generations.
The American Jewish community, by viture of it's commanding position in New York, back then the marquee swing state (with 45-47 Electoral Votes, the most of any state in the Union), holds disproportional sway relative to it's population, they were a key voting bloc. Truman made repeated overtures to the state's Jewish community during the 1948 campaign and even if he loses, Thomas Dewey had served as Manhattan District Attorney, and New York Governor, and is hardly going to let himself be outflanked on the matter.
The US will be the main destination for Jewish refugees, maybe not all, but between the influx being spaced out over a few decades and coupled with aggressive lobbying on the part of the American Jewish community, it will probably be home for the majority of them.
My point is that these Orthodox Jews from Eastern Europe would probably become Reform over time.
If the Kimberley Plan was shot down, this probably doesn’t have much of a shot either.
Again, while I think the Jewish American community would lobby aggressively, Truman and Dewey are only two people. What happens after them? There’s also Congress, the Supreme Court, and the general public, the majority of whom would oppose this. I would expect a major anti-Semitic backlash (albeit not as strong as in the 1920s and 1930s but still) and significantly delaying abolishing quotas if 3-4 million Jews are let into the USA, even if across several decades. Please correct me if I’m wrong.
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New York's electoral importance (again, 45+ Electoral Votes) is not going to disappear overnight. For a Democratic Party who's solid south base is showing signs of cracking, winning the state is paramount to the party's electoral fortunes, and same thing for the Republicans, Dewey could've flipped every close Midwestern state Truman won in 1948 and if he lost New York he'd still lose the election. In a close Presidential election, the Empire State is the ball game, and neither party can afford to write it off.
As for the others, the Supreme Court, chock full of Roosevelt appointees, isn't going to do anything about it. Congress is filling up with young Republicans and Democrats who just come back from fighting WWII, and an not unsubstantial amount who've toured the Nazi Concentration Camps which would've changed the viewpoint of all but the most vicious anti-semite, and the general public is enjoying peace and prosperity after the end of the turbulent post World War aftershocks.
If there's any time for large consensus that supports letting in Jewish refugees, you could do worse then the era after the 2nd World War, and again several decades, that's important. 3,500,000 people across ~20 years is 175,000 people per year, it's about what the US set the yearly quota for refugees in 1980, it's hardly unimaginable.
Muhammad Reza, very quietly had a desire for good relations with the Jewish people. He has a need for educated people , to staff the bureaus of his White revolution.
Vietnam might welcome them. Ho and David Ben Gurion were friends. On the other side Marshal Ky, begged Moshe Dayan, to help run his Chieu Hoi rehab centers for "turned" Viet Cong.
The quotas weren't fully abolished until 1965, though, and the period between 1948 and 1965 would be when the Jewish refugee crisis would likely be at its height. It could be easier after 1965 when the remaining quotas are reallocated and 1968 when the quotas were replaced with broader hemisphere limits of 170,000 people per year on a first-come, first-serve basis. But things are going to remain uncertain until then.
Apparently, Ho Chi Minh offered Ben Gurion Vietnam as a location for a government-in-exile if Israel collapsed.
Regardless of where they end up, I am less sure on how things would change within Judaism itself if Israel never successfully came to be after the Holocaust.
Actually, upon further research, it might not be as unreasonable as previously thought that a plurality, not necessarily the majority from Central/Eastern Europe and Palestine (and later the USSR/Eastern Bloc, North Africa, and the Middle East) would come to the United States. If so it would probably be distributed like the wave of 2 million that came to the USA from 1880-1914 (75% arriving between 1900 and 1914) with the majority coming once the quotas are abolished in 1965 and/or the Soviet Union lifts its emigration ban in 1971.
A Balfour Declaration POD potentially changes too much impacting the second world war and subsequent developments if they even still occur. If the 1948 war is lost, what's the POD causing the defeat and what becomes of the Jews already settled there before the establishment of the Palestine Mandate after the First World War?