Most generous peace for Axis in WWII?

[ZombieSlayer54]

Okay, okay. The general consesus on the board seems to be that, barring an extremely early (Read: Pre-Anschluss) POD, the Axis can't win WWII.

So, here's my question, then.

How little can the Axis lose WWII? Is it possible for Germany and/or Japan and/or Italy and/or their co-belligerents to maintain de jure and/or de facto independence? Can any of the Axis keep any of their extra-national territory? Could they get away with semi-autonomous regions, like Japan with a puppet Korea or Germany with a puppet BeNeLux?

Or, is the Axis inevitably doomed to be obliterated and occupied by the Allied powers?

 

[Wendell]

As odd as it sounds, the best peace for Germany is for the war to be avoided. Quitely absorb the Protectorate of Bohemia and Moravia, and possibly puppet Slovakia too, and call it a day.

 

[Ancien Regime]

Basically call it quits after France, make peace with 1914 borders, keep the ceasefire pact with Russia up as long as possible, throw everything you have into U-Boats, and wait for the Brits to get sick of it, while hoping Mussolini and Tojo don't act stupid. I wouldn't even sign the Tripartite pact with Japan. Hopefully for the Axis, the Russians don't invade anyway (but then again, a full strength Wehrmacht on their home turf against the post-purge Red Army?)

Of course, all of this is pretty ASB considering the character of the Nazi regime (and he wasn't going to get couped anytime soon after France).

 

[Wendell]

Basically call it quits after France, make peace with 1914 borders, keep the ceasefire pact with Russia up as long as possible, throw everything you have into U-Boats, and wait for the Brits to get sick of it, while hoping Mussolini and Tojo don't act stupid. I wouldn't even sign the Tripartite pact with Japan. Hopefully for the Axis, the Russians don't invade anyway (but then again, a full strength Wehrmacht on their home turf against the post-purge Red Army?)

Of course, all of this is pretty ASB considering the character of the Nazi regime (and he wasn't going to get couped anytime soon after France).

The problem with reverting to the 1914 borders is that the German ocupation zone in Poland would probably end up in the USSR, and at minimum, the Suwalki Triangle would remain attached anyway. However, all of this is a nonstarter, because Britain right feels at this point that the war can be won.

 

[The Red]

As odd as it sounds, the best peace for Germany is for the war to be avoided. Quitely absorb the Protectorate of Bohemia and Moravia, and possibly puppet Slovakia too, and call it a day.

And wait for your economy to collapse?

 

[Wendell]

And wait for your economy to collapse?

Possible, yes, but the Germans aren't getting any more than that short of a war with Italy.

 

[The Red]

Possible, yes, but the Germans aren't getting any more than that short of a war with Italy.

At that stage (if I was a genocidal maniac), I'd say it was too late to go back. The best thing to do would be to try and cement a formal alliance with Stalin (give him whatever he wants in exchange for support) or at least a final peace. The pray to God you can Britain to terms before the US get's involved (although this is less important if Stalin's in the Axis).

Japan's almost certainly screwed however, unless they are involved in a Nazi-Soviet alliance.

 

[schrammy]

actualy i am of the opinion that the nazi's could have pulled of a small win in ww2 just that the chances of doing so are extreemly low, but not totaly abs either.

1ste they make peace with britain slightly in there favor witch with the right pod's had a small chance of happeing.

than they stalemate the soviets while still on soviet territory and get some gains here aswell.

that would make them nominaly the winner of ww2 as that war would have ended.

but leave them exhausted and with 2 still verry powerfull enemy's that are out for revenge and so they would in al likely hood loose the next war, witch strictly speaking would be another war.

note that this all has a verry smal chance of happening just slightly above abs and require several Pod's.

 

[tuore]

If the war goes normally until the OTL peace negotiations (we'll ignore all the conferences on Germany's fate for now), the truth is pretty much that Germany will be split as it was in OTL. The general attitude of the Allies and the Comintern were that Germany should never again do what they had done during those 40 years of the 1900s. This leaves very little room for changes.

 

[BlairWitch749]

The lightest peace would have to be one where Russia has fallen (they where never going to allow the Germans to get off easy if they won)

Probably a scenario where Germany is successful in case blue and forces a Brest Litovsk type treaty; and then seeks some kind of status quo pro ante treaty with the west (they would have to make concessions in France, Hitler might have gone for that in return for recognition of his situation in the east)

 

[Grimm Reaper]

Italy stays out of the larger war, extorts a bit here and there from the British at the expense of French North Africa(Tunisia?) or the Balkans, then lunges on to the Allied side at a key moment, perhaps seizing most of the Balkans before Stalin can. Then build a new fascist anti-Nazi block including Spain, Portugal and possibly Turkey or various Balkan states.

 

[MikeTurcotte]

They got it in OTL. The only quibble might have been the Allies getting to Oder, but they got it.

 

[Gridley]

My $0.02 on the best case for the Axis:

Japan: status quo ante + some Chinese territory. PoD: don't occupy Indochina, and have the IJA smack down any ideas by the IJN of a southern strategy. Continue advancing into China, setting up puppet governments wherever possible. Absent the occupation of Indochina there MAY not be an oil embargo - this allows the war in China to proceed without an attack on the Allies. Chance of pulling this off: 5% or less.

Italy: status quo ante + some slivers of territory. PoD: don't declare war on France. An Italy NOT allied with Germany MIGHT be able to get away with snapping up some territory here and there - the Allies won't want to get into another war while they're fighting for what looks like their survival against Germany. However, given the weaknesses of the Italian Army, they're going to have a hard time taking and holding any major chunks of land without German support. Chance of pulling this off: 25% or so.

Germany: OTL maximum territorial extent. PoD: Hitler madness takes some different turns. If Germany does EVERYTHING right and gets quite lucky besides starting right after the fall of France (with minor changes starting even earlier) AND if they don't declare war on the US AND manage to keep from giving the US a causus belli, there's a tiny chance they can achieve a stalemate in the east and wear out the Brits. After a prolonged stalemate which sees (unknown to the Allies) Germany on the brink of economic collapse, peace is negotiated. Chance of pulling this off: less than 1%. Chance of survival as a coherent (still Nazi) state with any POD after the invasion of Poland: still less than 1%.

Note that there is a common theme here: war with the US must be prevented. Neither the USSR nor the UK will be defeated outright even in the best case; the USSR will be partially occupied but will still remain a 2nd tier power (holding all territory east of a line roughly Leningrad-Moscow-Astrakhan or Leningrad-Moscow-Kharkov-Black Sea).

 

[zoomar]

I don't think it is remotely possible for the "Axis" as an alliance to come out any better than in OTL. Only by abandoning the Axis and changing sides did Italy come out better than Japan and Germany. I am ignoring similar turncoat events by some of the "minor" German allies in central and eastern Europe, because their fate was sealed as the Soviets advanced and Tito won in Yugoslavia. Finland doesn't really count because it was not technically an Axis power. Given the separate dynamics of the European and Pacific Wars, it's hard to see how ditching the "Axis" would have substantially improved Germany's or Japan's position. With a different British government, Germany perhaps could have salvaged a victorious position immediately after the Fall of France, but at this point an "Axis" including Japan was not a wartime alliance. Once the UK-USSR-USA alliance developed Germany's fate was sealed, even if Hitler was overthrown by peace-loving socialist Lutheran monks. Japan entered the war with a sneak attack on the USA itself and US and British holdings throughout the Pacific. Unless you change this, its hard to see how a sudden decision by Japan to seek a less draconian peace would work.

 

[abc123]

Okay, okay. The general consesus on the board seems to be that, barring an extremely early (Read: Pre-Anschluss) POD, the Axis can't win WWII.

So, here's my question, then.

How little can the Axis lose WWII? Is it possible for Germany and/or Japan and/or Italy and/or their co-belligerents to maintain de jure and/or de facto independence? Can any of the Axis keep any of their extra-national territory? Could they get away with semi-autonomous regions, like Japan with a puppet Korea or Germany with a puppet BeNeLux?

Or, is the Axis inevitably doomed to be obliterated and occupied by the Allied powers?

Well, IMO, the best for Germany would it be that they didn't occupied Bohemia-Moravia in 1938. So then they could ask for Danzig and some sort of Corridor ( extrateritorial highway and railway ) and IMO they would get that... ( another Munich ).
And after that, annex Bohemia-Moravia.
And that's about a maximum that Germany could have without war.

 

[gridlocked]

I don't understand the board consensus.

POD #1 If Hitler did not declare war on the USSR and condemned the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor.

POD: Hitler's memory of a two front war, allows him to listen to his generals. "We will Get the Bolsheviks when Britain admits they have been beaten and our new generation of weapons come out." Hitler was very careful prior to Pearl Harbor not to upset the Americans. Hitler is in an excellent defensive position. Stalin was too cautious to roll the dice and risk everything on an attack on Germany.

The war with the UK would have to be extended to the late 40s for Britain to have A-bombs. The war would have never lasted that long. There would be voices clamoring for the return of world trade and the end of a pointless war which could not be won by either side (The Whale vs. the Tiger).


2) POD #2 A Quick win in Russia, placates the United States with words pledges to withdraw from France once the war is over etc.

POD: Hitler was not averse to divide and conquer in Yugoslavia where he had the support of the Slavic Croat government. Hitler repeats his winning formula. Imagine if he did the same thing in Russia and rode in like a liberator. The USSR would have collapsed like a house of cards. Germany could have expanded to the East and also set up free Baltic States and Ukraine. With his Goals met, Hitler proposes peace, placates the Americans, and moves all the resources of Europe into Bombers, Missiles, and fighter planes to batter the UK into a recognition of reality.

Neither POD requires Hitler being less evil, just showing a bit of his old political savvy.

Being Hitler, chances are he would use a peace to regroup for the next war, as in Gingrich's 1945, but that is another topic.

I'm am not even going into the fact that if Hitler was removed by Assassination, the earlier the better, Negotiations also might have been possible.