more solid Christian majority in Lebanon (and stronger sense of Lebanese nationality)

What would it have taken for Lebanon to have a more solid Christian majority (Maronite and otherwise; at least up until the 1930s-1940s), and hence its citizens having a stronger sense of Lebanese nationality, other than having just Mount Lebanon as an independent state (something that wasn't seen by the Maronite Christian leaders themselves as viable even as early as 1919-20)? (But of course having significant Sunni, Shia, and Druze minorities as well.) Perhaps...

a) a Crusader victory in the Levant as a whole in the Middle Ages (though that would have massive implications both in the entire Levant and elsewhere in the known world)
b) heavier Western missionary activity in the Levant in general or Lebanon specifically (probably accompanied by higher French settlement, perhaps sort of in the style of Algeria)
c) a different National Pact in 1943 from OTL
d) being a firm ally of Israel
e) somehow beating all the odds that Lebanon already had against it even in the 1920s-1950s, sort of like how the emergence (and sustainability) of the State of Israel in 1948 was an upset victory that required many multiple PODs?
f) have the legacy of Fouad Chehab, who - as president from 1958 to 1964 - promoted a strong sense of Lebanese nationality as such and encouraged unity among all Lebanese of different faiths, continue (Though my take on that is that having immediate successors continue his legacy might just have pushed off the inevitable - first and foremost the long and bloody civil war - for 5-10 years if not sooner.)

In short, what would it take for Lebanon to evolve in a different, and better, direction than it has iOTL? For Lebanon to have more stability, less corruption, a GDP per capita on the same level as Greece, Cyprus, or even Israel, no 1975-90 civil war, no ongoing and catastrophic economic crisis since 2019, and on it goes? As well as probably less overall conflict as well - more on the level of either Israel/the Palestinians or Cyprus?
 
Going real far back Umayyad’s decide they will only let sons from Christian mothers inherit the throne and upper class Arabs marry wholesale into syriac Christian communities.
 
Whilst it changes a lot about Lebanon down the the line, if you avoid the Mt Lebanon famine (killing half the population of the Mutasarrifate which is todays heartland of Lebanese Christianity) Lebanon will be a lot more Christian and Druze. If an independent Lebanon isn’t butterflied away than it will probably also include less Muslims: since the famine and ensuing paranoia about food scarcity was an important justification for including several majority Muslim areas.
 
Whilst it changes a lot about Lebanon down the the line, if you avoid the Mt Lebanon famine (killing half the population of the Mutasarrifate which is todays heartland of Lebanese Christianity) Lebanon will be a lot more Christian and Druze. If an independent Lebanon isn’t butterflied away than it will probably also include less Muslims: since the famine and ensuing paranoia about food scarcity was an important justification for including several majority Muslim areas.
The famine was tied to world war 1 without which you wouldn't get an independent Lebanon in the first place.
 
It may have been majority OTL. Do you mean overwhelmingly majority? i.e. Less of the eastern governates, more coastal?
Pretty much. If you keep the French from expanding the Mutasarrifate too much, that might work. Tack on southern Lebanon (including the cities of Tyre, Sidon, and Nabatieh), ensure both Beirut and Tripoli are retained by this new Christian Lebanon, and you have a pretty solid Christian majority. The rest of Lebanon, particularly the eastern and parts of the northern governorates (including Hermel, Baalbek, Miniyeh) is handed over to Syria.
 
Given that I've read related threads in the past, the most plausible is a smaller Lebanon, composed of districts with Christian majority; otherwise, population exchanges would be another option.

The problem, nonetheless, is the Druze-dominated south.
 
Pretty much. If you keep the French from expanding the Mutasarrifate too much, that might work. Tack on southern Lebanon (including the cities of Tyre, Sidon, and Nabatieh), ensure both Beirut and Tripoli are retained by this new Christian Lebanon, and you have a pretty solid Christian majority. The rest of Lebanon, particularly the eastern and parts of the northern governorates (including Hermel, Baalbek, Miniyeh) is handed over to Syria.
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Exactly. The only realistic way to keep Lebanon a Christian majority state would be NOT to expand its borders beyond the old ottoman Mutasarrifiyah. And still it would be a good idea to exclude the Druze-majority region of the Chouf, south of Beirut.

The problem is that this Lebanon would have struggles in being self-sustainable without the agricultural lands of the Bekaa and Jebal Amil, that’s the reason why the French and the Maronite elite expanded the borders.
 
View attachment 846070

Exactly. The only realistic way to keep Lebanon a Christian majority state would be NOT to expand its borders beyond the old ottoman Mutasarrifiyah. And still it would be a good idea to exclude the Druze-majority region of the Chouf, south of Beirut.
You could probably get away with including the Chouf.

The problem is that this Lebanon would have struggles in being self-sustainable without the agricultural lands of the Bekaa and Jebal Amil, that’s the reason why the French and the Maronite elite expanded the borders.
I had intended for the Jabal Amil to be part of the Christian Lebanon, I should have made that clearer, but you do raise a good point that a Christian Lebanon would definitely have trouble without the Bekaa valley. I think it's like 40% of all arable land in Lebanon is there.
 
What would it have taken for Lebanon to have a more solid Christian majority (Maronite and otherwise; at least up until the 1930s-1940s), and hence its citizens having a stronger sense of Lebanese nationality, other than having just Mount Lebanon as an independent state (something that wasn't seen by the Maronite Christian leaders themselves as viable even as early as 1919-20)? (But of course having significant Sunni, Shia, and Druze minorities as well.) Perhaps...

a) a Crusader victory in the Levant as a whole in the Middle Ages (though that would have massive implications both in the entire Levant and elsewhere in the known world)
b) heavier Western missionary activity in the Levant in general or Lebanon specifically (probably accompanied by higher French settlement, perhaps sort of in the style of Algeria)
c) a different National Pact in 1943 from OTL
d) being a firm ally of Israel
e) somehow beating all the odds that Lebanon already had against it even in the 1920s-1950s, sort of like how the emergence (and sustainability) of the State of Israel in 1948 was an upset victory that required many multiple PODs?
f) have the legacy of Fouad Chehab, who - as president from 1958 to 1964 - promoted a strong sense of Lebanese nationality as such and encouraged unity among all Lebanese of different faiths, continue (Though my take on that is that having immediate successors continue his legacy might just have pushed off the inevitable - first and foremost the long and bloody civil war - for 5-10 years if not sooner.)

In short, what would it take for Lebanon to evolve in a different, and better, direction than it has iOTL? For Lebanon to have more stability, less corruption, a GDP per capita on the same level as Greece, Cyprus, or even Israel, no 1975-90 civil war, no ongoing and catastrophic economic crisis since 2019, and on it goes? As well as probably less overall conflict as well - more on the level of either Israel/the Palestinians or Cyprus?
I suppose you could have a population exchange between French Lebanon and French Syria.

General distribution of population in the State of Jabal Druze according to the French census in 1921–22[1]
ReligionInhabitantsPercentage
Druze43,00084.8%
Christians7,00013.8%
Sunni7001.4%
Total50,700100%
ReligionInhabitantsPercentage
Alawite State, 1921–22[15]
Alawites253,00070.7%
Sunni50,00014%
Christians42,00011.7%
Ismailis13,0003.6%
Total358,000100%
ReligionInhabitantsPercentage
General Distribution of Population in the State of Damascus according to the French census in 1921-22[2]
Sunni447,00075.1%
Christians67,00011.3%
Foreigners49,0008.2%
Twelvers9,0001.5%
Ismailis8,0001.3%
Jews6,0001.1%
Alawis5,0000.8%
Druzes4,0000.7%
Total595,000100%
ReligionInhabitantsPercentage
General Distribution of Population in the State of Aleppo according to the French census in 1921-22[4]
Sunni502,00083.1%
Christians52,0008.6%
Alawis30,0005%
Jews7,0001.2%
Foreigners3,0000.5%
Total604,000100%
The total Christian population of Syria proper was 7,000 (Jabal Druze), 42,000 (Alawite state), 67,000 (Damascus State) and 52,000 (Aleppo State), with a grand total of 168,000 Christian’s in Syria proper.

In the Greater Lebanon State the Breakdown was 402,363 Christian’s and 383,180 Muslims. I guess what you could do is engage in a population transfer in which Muslims within Greater Lebanon and Christians in Syria proper could be repatriated?

I don’t know, to me it smells of the Indian partition. But I guess it would lead to a more Christian population in Lebanon?
 
I suppose you could have a population exchange between French Lebanon and French Syria.
Noone wanted this and no way the Syrians would agree to this

In the Greater Lebanon State the Breakdown was 402,363 Christian’s and 383,180 Muslims. I guess what you could do is engage in a population transfer in which Muslims within Greater Lebanon and Christians in Syria proper could be repatriated?
I remember an anecdotal story that when the Lebanese borders were drawn, the Orthodox population was exclude in favor of the Shias. Since the latter was regarded as harmless peasants and former was too interested in Syrian or Arab nationalism.
 
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French draw border so that Lebanon is Christian majority nation.
They did! Lebanon at inception was a solid 55ish% Christian! Maronites were about 30% of the total population.

Even today, Christians are probably 45ish%, though of course Lebanon no longer carries out censuses.

One problem, of course, is that most of the Orthodox Christians aren't super in tune with the Maronites.

The borders can be drawn much smaller in such a way as to give a solid Maronite majority, to say nothing of Christian.

Lebanon was always intended to be a Maronite nation-state, though the French apparently decided that more territory was inherently good.
 
Isn't the majority of diaspora Christian? If the diaspora stay, over time doesn't the population become majority Christian?

No Palestinian refugees would also help.
 
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