Monarchy Restored in Brazil

Could anyone imagine a scenario where the monarchy is restored in Brazil? There's no need for a specific date; however, it would be more fitting somewhere between the 1890s and 1940s.

Perhaps Vargas restoring the monarchy to remain in power during the Estado Novo, or the Paulistas achieving more victories in the Constitutional Revolution of 1932 and preventing Vargas from becoming a dictator, causing him to reconsider the parliamentary monarchy that could ensure his stay in power for a few more years.
 
If the Monarchy is restored, could the new King, play a similar role as Victor Emmanual III did in Italy, and restore democracy?
 
If the Monarchy is restored, could the new King, play a similar role as Victor Emmanuel III did in Italy, and restore democracy?
Victor Emmanuel III never restored democracy, he allowed Mussolini to stay in power from 1922 to 1943 and he got rid of him only when it was clear that Italy was on the losing side to not lose his crown, there's a reason why many voted against maintaining the monarchy.
 
If the Monarchy is restored, could the new King, play a similar role as Victor Emmanual III did in Italy, and restore democracy?

1. Title would be emperor not king.
2. VEIII never restored democracy. He actually allowed that to be abolished. Yes, he fired Mussolini after Italy was clearly losing the war but after that he just fled Italy like a coward and abdicated only just one month before referendum.

I would compare that Brazilian emperor to Juan Carlos I.
 
"By the way, in the event of the monarchy being restored, which branch would assume the crown?"
Vassouras or Petrópolis?
 
Last edited:
There was a referendum in 1993, where the monarchist option got 13% of the vote, and observers were surprised that it was that high.

There are more possible timelines where Brazil becomes a republic right from independence, than timelines where the monarchy lasts until the twenty-first century.

The best option is a coup by a Franco style dictator, ideally before World War II. The only other way would be to really nerf post World War 2 Brazilian politics, to the extent where there is still a 1993 referendum but the monarchist option passes. This would have to be something like an outright Communist becoming President of Brazil, followed by a period of military rule worse than the OTL one, and bad even by the standards of other Latin American countries. And I don't think even that would do it.
 
Could anyone imagine a scenario where the monarchy is restored in Brazil? There's no need for a specific date; however, it would be more fitting somewhere between the 1890s and 1940s.

Perhaps Vargas restoring the monarchy to remain in power during the Estado Novo, or the Paulistas achieving more victories in the Constitutional Revolution of 1932 and preventing Vargas from becoming a dictator, causing him to reconsider the parliamentary monarchy that could ensure his stay in power for a few more years.
Best bet for me is either D.Pedro II choosing to resist the coup(but his personality makes that improbable at best), or D.Isabel heeding Gaspar Silveira Martins' proposal to get her heir to Brazil during the Navy/Federalist Revolt(but that would need better military and political leadership on part of the rebels to win over the government forces).

After that, things get harder. Unrepentant monarchists were purged(bloodlessly, but purged nevertheless) from Brazilian political life. By the late 1900s, they were beginning to die, which means the Imperial Family doesn't have a political base, and would depend on the ones that would bring them back to power(the Imperial Family fully knows that, which is why, IMO, they insist on returning 'only with the assent of the majority of the population' - to return otherwise is to become puppets and rubber stamps for the ones who put them back in the throne, at least in the beginning).

Still, I can see two (long shot, to say the least) possibilities. The first one is Vargas bringing them back. This would have to be after 1940(which is when Vargas created the Imperial Museum in Petrópolis, as part of the efforts to paint himself as the 'D.Pedro II of the 20th century'). So... say that in response to the Manifest of the Mineiros(so, 1943), Vargas pledges to bring the Constitutional Monarchy back 'after the end of hostilities', instead of going full populist in order to consolidate a political base of support. The Army will be pissed, and this will have to be dealt with. OTOH, they can gain support among those sectors that are close to the Catholic Church(not enough, so Vargas will have to do really well in political maneuvering, even better than his usual). The Imperial Family will be wary, but I think Vargas can play the Petrópolis and Vassouras branches against each other here(note, I agree with holycookie that the Petrópolis Branch is the legitimate one; that wouldn't matter to Vargas, though). By, say, 1946, a new Emperor sits on the throne.

Second scenario is even more unlikely: in the period between the 1929 Crash and the 1930 Revolution, one of the Princes starts agitating for the end of the Republic, saying the current events prove the Republic has failed, and starts to form a political movement and army(because there is no way this wouldn't end in civil war) to put himself on the throne. This scenario is, frankly, almost ASB, and the 'Prince' in question would have to be for all practical effects a created character, because I can't see one of D.Isabel's sons or nephews even considering this(the only one I could see doing that is D.Pedro Augusto, but he was in a mental asylum, and would die in 1934... hmm, perhaps that could be a third possibility), but it could be a good story.
 
Best bet for me is either D.Pedro II choosing to resist the coup(but his personality makes that improbable at best), or D.Isabel heeding Gaspar Silveira Martins' proposal to get her heir to Brazil during the Navy/Federalist Revolt(but that would need better military and political leadership on part of the rebels to win over the government forces).

After that, things get harder. Unrepentant monarchists were purged(bloodlessly, but purged nevertheless) from Brazilian political life. By the late 1900s, they were beginning to die, which means the Imperial Family doesn't have a political base, and would depend on the ones that would bring them back to power(the Imperial Family fully knows that, which is why, IMO, they insist on returning 'only with the assent of the majority of the population' - to return otherwise is to become puppets and rubber stamps for the ones who put them back in the throne, at least in the beginning).

Still, I can see two (long shot, to say the least) possibilities. The first one is Vargas bringing them back. This would have to be after 1940(which is when Vargas created the Imperial Museum in Petrópolis, as part of the efforts to paint himself as the 'D.Pedro II of the 20th century'). So... say that in response to the Manifest of the Mineiros(so, 1943), Vargas pledges to bring the Constitutional Monarchy back 'after the end of hostilities', instead of going full populist in order to consolidate a political base of support. The Army will be pissed, and this will have to be dealt with. OTOH, they can gain support among those sectors that are close to the Catholic Church(not enough, so Vargas will have to do really well in political maneuvering, even better than his usual). The Imperial Family will be wary, but I think Vargas can play the Petrópolis and Vassouras branches against each other here(note, I agree with holycookie that the Petrópolis Branch is the legitimate one; that wouldn't matter to Vargas, though). By, say, 1946, a new Emperor sits on the throne.

Second scenario is even more unlikely: in the period between the 1929 Crash and the 1930 Revolution, one of the Princes starts agitating for the end of the Republic, saying the current events prove the Republic has failed, and starts to form a political movement and army(because there is no way this wouldn't end in civil war) to put himself on the throne. This scenario is, frankly, almost ASB, and the 'Prince' in question would have to be for all practical effects a created character, because I can't see one of D.Isabel's sons or nephews even considering this(the only one I could see doing that is D.Pedro Augusto, but he was in a mental asylum, and would die in 1934... hmm, perhaps that could be a third possibility), but it could be a good story.
What about Dom João? The one that got shot twice in the head

21397712_1425407147545620_1165628512_n.png

Maybe the integralists could put him in power
 
There are ways (even though unlikely ways) of accomplishing a monarchical restoration in the 1910’s. I’d say there are two basic requirements to make it work. The first one is a longer and more unstable Hermes da Fonseca presidency, in which the oligarchic pact is not restored towards the end of his administration and Fonseca installs a military dictatorship that lasts the decade and subverts the federal structure. The second is Prince D. Luís Maria de Orléans e Bragança not only surviving, but thriving, preferably not fighting in WW1 at all, where he caught the disease that killed him in OTL (and taking any sort of monarchical restoration down with him).

D. Luís Maria was fairly reformist for his time, as far as conservative reformism can go. He has all the necessary qualities in him to build a coalition of rural oligarchies, the urban middle class and liberal professions, and the military. He was also heavily interested and involved with the monarchist directories in Brazil, and actually attempted to disembark at Rio de Janeiro in 1907. He wasn’t allowed to do so, but he “held court” from the harbor and was attended by several prominent figures of the imperial establishment, including former prime ministers and such, though they would all be dead in the 1910’s.

Still, I think this would be your best shot. Have Hermes da Fonseca irreparably break down the political order and structures of the First Republic and have D. Luís Maria emerge as a leading political figure whose platform rests on federalism and conservative modernization, while still appeasing to the military due to his soldier-citizen vibe. I can see restoration happening in ca. 1920, or whenever Hermes is overthrown.

After that, it’s way too late. Getúlio Vargas definitely wouldn’t restore the monarchy. He is not Salazar or Franco. He was way too modernist and, well, republican. His whole thing was subverting the archaic order and founding a modern Brazil. That doesn’t happen by dialing back the clock.​
 
Pretropolis, the vassouras branch is not really a royal branch. They let go of that right
You changed the names, it's the petropolis branch that doesn't have the right to the Brazilian throne because Princess Isabel's eldest son resigned his sucession rights to marry a bohemia pebble, the broom branch is the one that holds the right to the throne
 
If the Monarchy is restored, could the new King, play a similar role as Victor Emmanual III did in Italy, and restore democracy?

Do you mean Juan Carlos of Spain? Victor Emmanuel pretty much did the opposite and all but gave Italy to Mussolini
 
Honestly, the best way to restore the monarchy would be to follow the Spanish model:
-Sometime between 1935-1936, Vargas falls dead in an "accident" and a mixture of political pressure and social chaos causes emergency elections to be called at the end of 1936
-Somehow the Integralist Party wins the elections and Plinio Salgado becomes president with Gustavo Barroso as his vice-president
-The Monarchy is restored sometime between 1936 and 1944, placing Dom Pedro Henrique as Emperor, although initially he is just a puppet
-The Regime remains standing and after the death of Plinio Salgado in 1975, Dom Pedro III began a process of Democratization
Honestly, the best way to restore the monarchy would be to follow the Spanish model:
-Sometime between 1935-1936, Vargas falls dead in an "accident" and a mixture of political pressure and social chaos causes emergency elections to be called at the end of 1936
-Somehow the Integralist Party wins the elections and Plinio Salgado becomes president with Gustavo Barroso as his vice-president
-The Monarchy is restored sometime between 1936 and 1944, placing Dom Pedro Henrique as Emperor, although initially he is just a puppet
-The Regime remains standing and after the death of Plinio Salgado in 1975, Dom Pedro III began a process of Democratization
 
No, they were at each other throats since integralism is socially regressive and Vargas wanted a modern industrial Brazil
You need the integralists to coup the government and maybe if Dom João Maria acts crazy as he did during it he might turn into a hero, who knows?
Do you mean Juan Carlos of Spain? Victor Emmanuel pretty much did the opposite and all but gave Italy to Mussolini
20 years later, he took it back. Do you think Badaligio would have had the guts to try what he did without backing?
 
What about Dom João? The one that got shot twice in the head

Maybe the integralists could put him in power
The Integralists had even less chance of getting into power than the Federalists did in 1893. The fact that his father renounced the right for the throne(and honored that act while he lived) wouldn't quite count if the Integralists really wanted to put an Emperor on the throne.
There are ways (even though unlikely ways) of accomplishing a monarchical restoration in the 1910’s. I’d say there are two basic requirements to make it work. The first one is a longer and more unstable Hermes da Fonseca presidency, in which the oligarchic pact is not restored towards the end of his administration and Fonseca installs a military dictatorship that lasts the decade and subverts the federal structure. The second is Prince D. Luís Maria de Orléans e Bragança not only surviving, but thriving, preferably not fighting in WW1 at all, where he caught the disease that killed him in OTL (and taking any sort of monarchical restoration down with him).

D. Luís Maria was fairly reformist for his time, as far as conservative reformism can go. He has all the necessary qualities in him to build a coalition of rural oligarchies, the urban middle class and liberal professions, and the military. He was also heavily interested and involved with the monarchist directories in Brazil, and actually attempted to disembark at Rio de Janeiro in 1907. He wasn’t allowed to do so, but he “held court” from the harbor and was attended by several prominent figures of the imperial establishment, including former prime ministers and such, though they would all be dead in the 1910’s.

Still, I think this would be your best shot. Have Hermes da Fonseca irreparably break down the political order and structures of the First Republic and have D. Luís Maria emerge as a leading political figure whose platform rests on federalism and conservative modernization, while still appeasing to the military due to his soldier-citizen vibe. I can see restoration happening in ca. 1920, or whenever Hermes is overthrown.

After that, it’s way too late. Getúlio Vargas definitely wouldn’t restore the monarchy. He is not Salazar or Franco. He was way too modernist and, well, republican. His whole thing was subverting the archaic order and founding a modern Brazil. That doesn’t happen by dialing back the clock.​
Had forgotten about him! You're right that he would have been a good candidate. Big problem is making the Hermes da Fonseca Administration even more of a shitshow than it was - not because things couldn't get worse, but because Hermes and his sons took things as far as they could, making a deal with the people they were seeking to push away in order to stabilize things at the end of his Administration.

As for Vargas not being someone who would restore the monarchy, I think that you are most likely right.
You changed the names, it's the petropolis branch that doesn't have the right to the Brazilian throne because Princess Isabel's eldest son resigned his sucession rights to marry a bohemia pebble, the broom branch is the one that holds the right to the throne
You're right as well.
 
Top