Modern Ottoman Empire

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

No ofcource not,

but I just do not grasp the importance of this region regarding demographics and economy in contrast to Macedonia wich you easily gives away

Or Rumania or Greece or "northern Bulgaria"

I guess I was just balancing strategic with economic importance. Losing Macedonia does not harm the strategic position of the empire as does the loss of territory south of the Balkan range, as this makes defense of Istanbul very difficult. But you're right, the Salonika province had a Muslim plurality, i.e. the number of Muslims was greater than either the number of Slavs or Greeks.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

I agree. There is no chance Bulgaria would enter the war with the Ottomans sitting on their border uncommitted. As it was it was necessary for the Ottomans to cede a strip of territory to the Bulgarians to purchase alliance.

In order for the Ottomans to gain any territory they would have to join the Entente, and it's hard to see what land they could be offered - most likely the Italians would have to return the Dodecanese, and that's about it. In a pinch perhaps return of Cyprus. There is no chance of regaining Bulgarian territory unless Bulgaria joins the CP which is impossible if the Ottomans joing the Entente.., ad infinitum. Even if somehow this did happen, the most that could be hoped for is a piece of Western Thrace, which still had a Muslim majority - and that's if Greece wasn't in need of compensation.

Assuming Bulgaria's still going to war with its Ottoman border not secure, there's going to be a lot of opposition in Belgrade, Bucharest and Athens to something like that. And that's just assuming Russia still gets its ass kicked so much it won't have a say, and the public opinion in Britain, France, the United States and Italy won't be manipulated to oppose it (based on the old Christianity vs Islam rutine). It's far more likely that Bulgaria loses the eastern part of its 1913 gains.



Greece had no claim on Serbian territory, in fact Serbia was its ally against Bulgaria, and northern Epirus can be obtained by joining the Entente side (it's a miracle that Albania survived Versailles).

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

An idea I have been toying with was a member of the more Russophobic Armenian factions ratting out a plot to help the Czar invade, get himself appointed effective governor after the Russiand make themselves _real_ unpopular among the supposed 'Traitors to Christiandom', and help turn the overall tide of that particular Russo-Turkish war (Bulgaria, Macedonia, Bosnia, and Ioannia remain firmly in Ottoman hands... and the Sultanate becomes increasingly constitutional)

HTG

Interesting - I'd be interested in seeing that.

 

[AndreHanover]

German victory in WW1. That's all it takes.

Seriously though, the Ottomans were constantly reforming and did a pretty good job of it overall. The problem they had was the same one Russia had: the Western nations aren't reforming, they're just doing it right in the first place. You don't get ahead by copying the people doing better than you - at best you catch up some.

The war would likely give them Egypt, and even if not, they'd still consolidate their hold on Arabia and get a little more land from Russia. They have most of the world's oil, and are strong enough to bargain with it. They have an serious population base. With Russia smacked down they have real territorial security. They already have the reforms in line that Attaturk continued. That's makes them a France-level power, easily. Likely even more powerful.

In fact, basically and POD can do, if it somehow prevents their dismemberment in the aftermath of a World War. They were already on the track to match or surpass (mainland) France and Britain in economic and military power. And as to culture... they already had an equal culture. We didn't read their books or look at their art first because they were Muslims, and then later because they lost the war and were more or less destroyed.

Making the Ottoman military stronger and throwing in some nationalism will never allow the Empire to be an equal of one of the two pre-war global superpowers (France.) The power of France is so much greater than the shell of the Ottoman Empire it's not even funny. How is the Ottoman Empire ever going to conquer half of Africa, be a solid third in world global power, and have a strong naval presence in every ocean? And how can adding the Hejaz, the Levant, and Mesopotamia (which is severely underdeveloped) magically add industrial power within a few years to surpass both France and Britain? Even today, Turkey hasn't achieved this, and much of Turkey's growth in the late 1940s was due to Marshall Plan funding and post-war shelling out of cash so that the country would not fall to the Communists. Back on the military issue, the only reason the Ottomans lasted as long as they did was because Germany was being very generous with military assistance. Notice how Britain/Arabs and to some extent the French still beat the Ottomans when they had their military and German help?