May 10th 1940 - Germany invades the USSR

ranoncles

There are some good reasons mentioned in this thread.

But what I haven't seen is the main reason it would never happen IMO.
If there was anything all Germans agreed on, it was the fear of a two-front war. Historically, Hitler 'only' managed to get away with it because he convinced his followers that Britain was not a threat on 1941 and that Russia (England's other hope of salvation in addition to America) could be defeated in 1941. After conquering Russia, a rejuvenated Wehrmacht would finish matters with the British.

In early 1940, the Germans are at war with Britain and France, the combination that defeated them in WWI (with Russia and America).

It would be the height of folly (which in itself is not a rare thing in Nazi Germany) to start a war against Russia with those nations already arrayed against you.

Don't forget that France was considered to have the best military force in the world at the time and already had more men and tanks.

I do not see any moves to the east while such 'formidable' opposition lies in the west.
 

metalstar316

If the British wouldn't surrender when France did in OTL, I don't think they would have when/if the Soviets did. Especially not if France has only been marginally engaged.
 

DaleCoz

A little twist

One possible twist in all of this: the Germans wanted to attack France much earlier than they did, but were prevented from doing so by a very nasty winter. What if the weather had opened up and allowed a German attack on France on March 10 rather than May 10? France surrenders on or before April 25, and--the Germans would not be ready to attack the Soviets by May 10, but they might be by the middle of June.

Let me think that through. First, would the Germans go after the Soviets immediately rather than going after the Brits? Hard to know. Hitler really wanted to take the Soviets down. With an entire campaigning season ahead of him the idea would be tempting. Hard to predict with Hitler.

Another issue: would the battle for France have gone the same way it did historically? When did the German emphasis shift from a northern to a southern attack? When the French take 7 of their better divisions, including the best of their DLMs out of central reserve and start planning to send them north toward Holland in the Breda variant? When did the French start getting more ambitious in terms of which river line they planned to defend in Belgium? The further north they pushed the more vulnerable they became. When did Belgium decide not to fight in the Ardennes?

I don't think you could push a German offensive much before mid-March without changing those factors and making a German victory more iffy. On the other hand, if the battle of France went much the same way it did historically, but two months earlier I doubt that the British would get anywhere near as much of the BEF off the continent as it did historically because the wild weather in the channel would have made the evacuation more difficult.

Then there is the issue of the weather. In order for the German offensive to work like it did historically, the weather would have to be clear for at least a couple of weeks because the Luftwaffe was a fair-weather airforce. The snows would have had to have melted, and the ground would have had to have dried out enough to prevent the Germans from being road-bound. Not real likely by March 10th, but not ASB-type unlikely. What do you think? Would that work?

---------

Dale Cozort - 11 years of alternate history e-zines at:

http://members.aol.com/althist1/index.htm

(March and May 2008 zines are now up)
 

pacifichistorian

Banned
Zyzzyva said:
Besides, the French didn't surrender until... oh, let's see, 22 June. Even if the wermacht uses their magical teleporters to go from Paris to Brest-Litvosk overnight, they're still one day behind the '41 date of invasion, and aren't going to reach Moscow before winter.
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Actually, if Hitler had been less of an interfering maniac (that is, Hitler:D), the Heer would have been in Moscow in well less than the 10wk the plan called for (mid-Sept, IIRC, OTL), with winter not even close.
 

Zyzzyva

pacifichistorian said:
Actually, if Hitler had been less of an interfering maniac (that is, Hitler:D), the Heer would have been in Moscow in well less than the 10wk the plan called for (mid-Sept, IIRC, OTL), with winter not even close.
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Er... Is that assuming no Kiev Pocket? because if they do that Army Group Centre is getting the flank attack to end all flank attacks.
 

pacifichistorian

Banned
Zyzzyva said:
Er... Is that assuming no Kiev Pocket? because if they do that Army Group Centre is getting the flank attack to end all flank attacks.
Click to expand...
Actually, I'm thinking of the 800km route march to Stalingrad & back to no benefit, instead of letting AGCenter rest. Have a look at Stolfi, Hitler's Panzers East.

Jukra said:
However, I think a Soviet attack on USSR
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You mean Hitler isn't a complete idiot:p & gets the nationalities to turn on the Communists?:cool::cool: ASB, sorry.:eek::D
 
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