I wanted to explore this post from 2018 more deeply, as I found it fascinating. The last comment describes a scenario where Tom McCall, a popular Oregon governor, wins the presidential election in 1976 as an independent. I will quote some of the info from the OP and the last comment on the post here for context; I still highly recommend reading the original discussion:
"What would an independent McCall campaign in 1976 have looked like? Apparently, the Third Force "eludes definition" but its "commandments" include "protecting the environment, stressing energy conservation, developing a new openness in government, creating a national presidential primary and national initiatives [ed: that is, referenda], eliminating the seniority system in Congress and protecting consumers." A Third Force campaign might involve national versions of programs McCall pushed in his home state such as a Bottle Bill, comprehensive land-use planning, and an expansive interpretation of free speech. He'd probably be rather pragmatic and centrist on economic issues - he'd tried to institute sales duties in Oregon in order to cut property tax, a right-wing suburbanite's dream, but he also advocated wage and price controls in response to stagflation. It's also worth mentioning that he was a proponent of legal euthanasia. Conversely, the platform might be thinner on issues where he had less expertise or interest, such as civil rights, labor, and foreign policy. The overall picture captures a certain 70s zeitgeist and there would be a constituency for it - but I'm not sure the majority of Americans would be in that constituency.
It's difficult to imagine a path to victory for any independent candidate, but McCall's charisma and list of actual accomplishments as Governor would put him in a better starting position than the comparable OTL campaigns of McCarthy and John Anderson. A lot would depend on the other candidates in the race. If Carter still won the Democratic nod, their outsider messages might overlap too much. The stigma of Nixon had begun to fade by this point IOTL and the Third Force would have had less appeal than it did in 1974 - you might need a really heinous end to the Watergate saga to give McCall a chance."
"MAXIMUM TOM SCENARIO
-Connally becomes Nixon's VP either in 1972 or after Agnew's resignation.
-Nixon resigns as IOTL.
-Connally's milk price scandal comes out, leading to his resignation as well.
-Carl Albert's alcoholism leads to him being unable to take the oath of office.
-James Eastland serves until the end of the term and picks another conservative as his vice president.
-With the political situation as chaotic as it is, Tom McCall announces the "Third Force" with numerous Republicans and Democrats defecting.
-Wallace gets the Democratic nomination in 1976 over a divided liberal opposition (many joining McCall).
-Reagan, as the conservative leader, defeats Rockefeller and Percy to becomes the Republican nominee.
-With the general election approaching, McCall is able to attract significant progressive support from the public.
-On election night, McCall wins the popular vote and gets third in the electoral vote. Reagan is in second but does the worst electorally given the split Southern vote. Wallace is a more distant third in the popular vote but is second electorally."
Picking up from the MAXIMUM TOM scenario, how would Tom McCall's administration navigate the hectic times, with stagflation, Iran, Israel, the Soviets, Nicaragua, etc.? Let me know what you think!
"What would an independent McCall campaign in 1976 have looked like? Apparently, the Third Force "eludes definition" but its "commandments" include "protecting the environment, stressing energy conservation, developing a new openness in government, creating a national presidential primary and national initiatives [ed: that is, referenda], eliminating the seniority system in Congress and protecting consumers." A Third Force campaign might involve national versions of programs McCall pushed in his home state such as a Bottle Bill, comprehensive land-use planning, and an expansive interpretation of free speech. He'd probably be rather pragmatic and centrist on economic issues - he'd tried to institute sales duties in Oregon in order to cut property tax, a right-wing suburbanite's dream, but he also advocated wage and price controls in response to stagflation. It's also worth mentioning that he was a proponent of legal euthanasia. Conversely, the platform might be thinner on issues where he had less expertise or interest, such as civil rights, labor, and foreign policy. The overall picture captures a certain 70s zeitgeist and there would be a constituency for it - but I'm not sure the majority of Americans would be in that constituency.
It's difficult to imagine a path to victory for any independent candidate, but McCall's charisma and list of actual accomplishments as Governor would put him in a better starting position than the comparable OTL campaigns of McCarthy and John Anderson. A lot would depend on the other candidates in the race. If Carter still won the Democratic nod, their outsider messages might overlap too much. The stigma of Nixon had begun to fade by this point IOTL and the Third Force would have had less appeal than it did in 1974 - you might need a really heinous end to the Watergate saga to give McCall a chance."
"MAXIMUM TOM SCENARIO
-Connally becomes Nixon's VP either in 1972 or after Agnew's resignation.
-Nixon resigns as IOTL.
-Connally's milk price scandal comes out, leading to his resignation as well.
-Carl Albert's alcoholism leads to him being unable to take the oath of office.
-James Eastland serves until the end of the term and picks another conservative as his vice president.
-With the political situation as chaotic as it is, Tom McCall announces the "Third Force" with numerous Republicans and Democrats defecting.
-Wallace gets the Democratic nomination in 1976 over a divided liberal opposition (many joining McCall).
-Reagan, as the conservative leader, defeats Rockefeller and Percy to becomes the Republican nominee.
-With the general election approaching, McCall is able to attract significant progressive support from the public.
-On election night, McCall wins the popular vote and gets third in the electoral vote. Reagan is in second but does the worst electorally given the split Southern vote. Wallace is a more distant third in the popular vote but is second electorally."
Picking up from the MAXIMUM TOM scenario, how would Tom McCall's administration navigate the hectic times, with stagflation, Iran, Israel, the Soviets, Nicaragua, etc.? Let me know what you think!
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