Martin Van Buren reelected in 1840?

[Vinization]

Despite his unpopularity at the time of the election, and Harrison's comfortable victory in the electoral college and popular vote, Martin Van Buren came very close to winning Maine, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New York and New Jersey. Had he won those five states, he would've gotten 153 votes in the electoral college and a second term as president, even if he still loses the popular vote.

How would that second term go? My guess is that it would be very rough for him and the Democrats, since the Whigs will almost certainly keep control of Congress given how close a Van Buren victory would be, plus they won't tear themselves apart like they did IOTL after Harrison's death. One thing worth noting is that unlike John Tyler, Van Buren was opposed to the annexation of Texas. Given the 1844 election will almost certainly be won by a Whig candidate (probably Henry Clay), if only because of the fatigue of 16 years of Democratic rule, could the Mexican-American War be avoided entirely?

How would American politics be affected by these developments?

 

[redjirachi]

It's possible he could die instead. It's nowadays thought that Harrison died of typhoid from the awful sewage system Washington had, and that it could've also contributed to Polk and Taylor's end

 

[Vinization]

It's possible he could die instead. It's nowadays thought that Harrison died of typhoid from the awful sewage system Washington had, and that it could've also contributed to Polk and Taylor's end

Well, that would be tremendously anticlimactic.

What would an independent Texas look like, assuming the US doesn't annex it in the 1840s or 1850s?

Can Mexico keep its remaining northern territories?

 

[DanMcCollum]

I suspect Clay would be almost a shoe-in come '44 - arguing that a military chieftan obviously didn't work, the Whigs need to stick with their ideals. I wonder if he will remain as hesitant about annexing Texas as he was in OTL, as this would allow him to critique the outgoing Van Buren administration.

 

[Vinization]

I suspect Clay would be almost a shoe-in come '44 - arguing that a military chieftan obviously didn't work, the Whigs need to stick with their ideals. I wonder if he will remain as hesitant about annexing Texas as he was in OTL, as this would allow him to critique the outgoing Van Buren administration.

Could Daniel Webster be another plausible candidate, or was he too close to the elite to be viable outside of Massachusetts?

 

[DanMcCollum]

Could Daniel Webster be another plausible candidate, or was he too close to the elite to be viable outside of Massachusetts?

Webster was respected on his speaking tours, and beloved even, but "Black Dan" didn't have a chance of the nomination, let alone the presidency, outright. He was far too associated with the New England elites, and though he had a lot of prestige and power in the Senate, he was a regional candidate when it came to the Presidency. His best best, and really his only real chance to gain the top office was to become VP and inherit it.

 

[NedStark]

I suspect Clay would be almost a shoe-in come '44 - arguing that a military chieftan obviously didn't work, the Whigs need to stick with their ideals. I wonder if he will remain as hesitant about annexing Texas as he was in OTL, as this would allow him to critique the outgoing Van Buren administration.

Fatigue alone would have been enough to help Clay. IMO, he wouldn't have pushed for annexation, especially if Van Buren blocked it from the beginning (thus never letting Texas annexation to gain the momentum).