Margaret Theresa was the mother of Maria Antonia who was considered the heiress of Spain, but what if her daughter Maria was born as son
Margaret Theresa had a surviving son by Leopold
- Thread starter Salma Amer
- Start date
Her son Fersinand Wenzel survived until three months, why not just let him survive?
Will be better
I chose Maria Antonia because she has proven her ability to bear children, I want to stop any upcoming succession war
But Ferdinand is also suitable, perhaps he is like his sister and not like their uncle Charles II
On the plus side, Margarita Teresa having a surviving son likely means she doesn't spend most of her short marriage knocked up. The poor woman was pregnant six times during her life, and IIRC was several months into a pregnancy when she died OTL.
That being said, a surviving son's effects won't be seen in Spain until the 1680s/1690s when it becomes apparent Carlos II won't have an heir of his own. However, having a surviving son and a different sequence of pregnancies for Margarita means that she might not die exactly when she did OTL. It can also mean that Klaudia Felizitas of Tirol becomes James II's second wife (negotiations were only scuppered by Leopold needing a new wife ASAP)
That being said, a surviving son's effects won't be seen in Spain until the 1680s/1690s when it becomes apparent Carlos II won't have an heir of his own. However, having a surviving son and a different sequence of pregnancies for Margarita means that she might not die exactly when she did OTL. It can also mean that Klaudia Felizitas of Tirol becomes James II's second wife (negotiations were only scuppered by Leopold needing a new wife ASAP)
not impossible that he has "minor issues", epilepsy was a problem that her mother, grandmother and uncle all suffered from, but fortunately there are no other Habsburgs to "cross-pollinate" with aside from siblings/half-siblings, and Louis XIV has no surviving daughter, nor does the duke of Savoie or any of the other major players for the Spanish crown, which might mean he gets a "foreign" match (literally and figuratively) like Anna Maria Ludovica de Medici (as a French proxy), Anne Marie d'Orléans, OTL Queen Anne of England (her sister was considered for Leopold I and Anne herself was kicked around for Carlos II OTL)...I doubt very much that he'd get a German bride if he's going to be the next king of Spain.
What if Ferdinand had lived and his sister Maria Antonia had given birth to a son?
unprincipled peter
Donor
Maria Theresa is still the elder sister of Margaret Theresa, and the same claim of superior line of succession for her children due to her renunciation being held to be invalid the French POV). So, the Habsburg claimant changes, but the French still have their candidate. Ultimately, I don't think Habsburg strength of line of succession really matters. Maria Theresa's heirs will always trump her younger sister's, unless you consider the renunciation valid. IF that's the case, the Bourbon's have no claim TTL or OTL. Since French power made it non valid OTL, it is non valid TTL.
What might change is the diplomacy, and events leading up the succession showdown could lead to an alt war IF France is convinced a partition is the way to go. Otherwise, I think the WoSS is still on course for OTL-like happening.
This surviving son is the first in line for the Austrian throne. Does he give that up to head off to Spain? He's old enough to have teen/pre-teen children. Perhaps a second son is deemed the heir, ala Philip in the Bourbon line. Otherwise, the claimant is passed down to Joseph, who would have the same line of succession as Karl.
If Joseph, or Ferdinand, or a second surviving son of Margaret (just to make things more interesting) is the Habsburg claimant, they are adult/older, and thus may journey off to Spain to join the fight (unlike Karl, who didn't go to Spain til halfway through the war). This may garner more support earlier, and affect the course of the war.
OTL, when everyone was worn out and ready to call it a day (except Austria, who wanted to continue until Karl was the sole inheritor), it was handy that Karl was the heir in Austria, and then the only Habsburg male left standing, meaning he was sitting on the Austrian throne, and HRE. Thus the allies could back off putting him on the Spanish throne. Here, there's more Habsburg males, so the same situation won't exist. IF we just blindly have the war scenario exactly the same, except there's more Habsburg males alive, does Britain do the same as OTL and accept Philip as Spanish King, or do they fight on? I lean toward they accept Philip. The war had everyone worn out, and France was stymied in their bid to take it all, and Britain preferred a partition anyhow.
Ultimately, unless the WoSS goes very differently, I think the biggest effect will be in Austria. Does Ferdinand W do the reform effort Joseph started? Do the Habsburg line have enough males to prevent the diplomacy of the Pragmatic Sanction and the War of Austrian Succession? Karl was a poor HRE/Austrian leader, so an alt Habsburg very well do better. And, of course, avoiding the WoAS, or changing the War of Polish Succession, will have massive effects on the rest of the century and on.
What might change is the diplomacy, and events leading up the succession showdown could lead to an alt war IF France is convinced a partition is the way to go. Otherwise, I think the WoSS is still on course for OTL-like happening.
This surviving son is the first in line for the Austrian throne. Does he give that up to head off to Spain? He's old enough to have teen/pre-teen children. Perhaps a second son is deemed the heir, ala Philip in the Bourbon line. Otherwise, the claimant is passed down to Joseph, who would have the same line of succession as Karl.
If Joseph, or Ferdinand, or a second surviving son of Margaret (just to make things more interesting) is the Habsburg claimant, they are adult/older, and thus may journey off to Spain to join the fight (unlike Karl, who didn't go to Spain til halfway through the war). This may garner more support earlier, and affect the course of the war.
OTL, when everyone was worn out and ready to call it a day (except Austria, who wanted to continue until Karl was the sole inheritor), it was handy that Karl was the heir in Austria, and then the only Habsburg male left standing, meaning he was sitting on the Austrian throne, and HRE. Thus the allies could back off putting him on the Spanish throne. Here, there's more Habsburg males, so the same situation won't exist. IF we just blindly have the war scenario exactly the same, except there's more Habsburg males alive, does Britain do the same as OTL and accept Philip as Spanish King, or do they fight on? I lean toward they accept Philip. The war had everyone worn out, and France was stymied in their bid to take it all, and Britain preferred a partition anyhow.
Ultimately, unless the WoSS goes very differently, I think the biggest effect will be in Austria. Does Ferdinand W do the reform effort Joseph started? Do the Habsburg line have enough males to prevent the diplomacy of the Pragmatic Sanction and the War of Austrian Succession? Karl was a poor HRE/Austrian leader, so an alt Habsburg very well do better. And, of course, avoiding the WoAS, or changing the War of Polish Succession, will have massive effects on the rest of the century and on.
Louis XIV- for all his frequent assertions over the Netherlands as part of an unpaid dowry- does seem to have "respected" the rights of Maria Antonia's son (or at least said he would) OTL. Granted, he also received a motley assortment of concessions in the First Partition treaty. From what I've read, he basically went to war OTL because he knew no one else would never accept the will, not necessarily because he wanted "more than he got". For instance, he never (AFAIK) contested the duchy of Milan going to Austria, and IIRC there was practically no actions in the Italian possessions promised to the dauphin by either partition treaty.
That being said, things need to be looked at in context. As I mentioned, Ferdinand Wenzel is likely only going to be looked at as potential heir to Spain from the mid-1680s (when Carlos' childlessness started being an issue, and was "delayed" when he remarried), but between his survival in 1668 and the 1680s, there are a number of other forks that could change. The first being Margarita Teresa's pregnancy patterns. With a surviving son, Leopold is going to be a little less desperate for an heir, so that can allow more "recovery time" between pregnancies. If she doesn't die exactly when she did OTL, Klaudia Felizitas could end up as Mrs. James II. That in and of itself has huge implications for Britain. If James marries Klaudia instead of Mary of Modena, that means he might get an heir sooner. Which changes the whole fabric of the English succession. If they have a surviving half-brother (or two) being raised an Anglican, Mary and Anne Stuart might be married elsewhere than OTL. At the very least, William III isn't going to be able to a) invade England and b) count on Habsburg support against the emperor's own blood. This in turn affects the OTL 9YW since while the English might barely tolerate the Catholic James II, FWIR he wasn't as pro-French as propaganda smeared him (in fact, Louis XIV actively intrigued against him because he wasn't being pro-French enough). So before we get to the question of a Spanish Succession War, those questions have to be answered.
Margarita’s line was recognized by everyone as being the most direct claimant. NOBODY tried to partition anything BEFORE the deaths of both Margarita and Antonia, who were recognized as Princesses of Asturias. Margarita marrying with full rights and her being a closer relative of Charles II mean who she and her heirs would be ahead of that of Maria Theresa also if the latter’s renunciation is deemed as invalid.
In this scenario, assuming who Margarita lived slightly longer, left two living children (Ferdinand Wenzel and Maria Antonia) and Leopold remarried directly to Eleonore Magdalena and had more sons by her, Ferdinand will get Spain, while Austria will go to Eleonore’s eldest son
Agreed. Claudia would be a very different Duchess of York and Queen than Maria Beatrice was. But the POD could also allow for the survival of Magdalena of Tyrol, leaving Claudia as Empress and Magdalena as Duchess of York (who would more interesting). And William will not be able to invade England if James is married to an Habsburg and Louis XIV’s plots against James would likely get the latter more firmly in the Habsburg camp, specially if Henrietta still died as OTL without leaving sons…
I think the other aspect of diplomacy that will change is the lack of a compromise or third candidate. If Ferdinand Wenzel lives then the children of his sister, if he still has one, rank indisputably behind him in order of succession. So unlike IOTL with Maria Antonia's son Ferdinand Joseph of Bavaria there no other person with a claim of equal or close to equal standing to Ferdinand Wenzel and the Grand Dauphin.
Agreed. Especially with no compromise candidate available. And if Leopold has another son with Margaret Theresa or with a second wife there is no risk of union of Spain and Austria. So Ferdinand would likely be the only candidate considered by most of Europe, basically everyone except France. So I wouldn't expect partition treaties like we had IOTL between the French and English. Probably everyone is content with Ferdinand being the heir and fully expects that outcome. Then France launches a war when Charles dies and leaves everything to Ferdinand to try and conquer some chunks of the Spanish empire.
This has always been really interesting to me. It could lead to such a weird dynamic with James II married to an Austrian Archduchess. Kind of like what Archduke has created with James allying with Spain in that TL. I'm not sure how it would all play out but its fun to think about. Though I also think there is a possibility that Claudia would die before too long as her health was not apparently very good/strong. Though if she popped out a male heir before she died that does still create complications.
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unprincipled peter
Donor
Carlos II top heir is Maria Theresa. She's the old surviving child of Philip IV. Margaret's line is second, as she's the next oldest. The renunciation removed Maria Theresa, but then France decided to ignore it when Carlos II failed to sire children. The validity of the renunciation is the only thing removing her children from the top spot. They're either in the line, or they're not, and if they're in it, they're in the top spot. They don't drop a notch. France and Austria had plans to divvy up the Spanish Empire during one of France's Dutch Wars/Spanish Netherland Wars, but then Carlos II lived, and the plan was dropped. France claimed to accept the compromise candidate in the first partition treaty, but then they also claimed to accept Karl in a partition treaty, and they decided not to honor that. All that diplomacy/treaties was posturing to prevent war, and/or making the other side think they weren't going to war.
We can go round and round regarding who the top accepted heir is. Ultimately, all that matters is whether France engages in war to get a piece of the pie pushing the claim of Maria Theresa. France will want a piece, and will go to war if necessary. The only question is whether circumstances persuade them to engage in a limited war to take part of it, or a full war to take all of it.
Again in OTL Margarita first and then Antonia were the recognized heiresses presumptive of Charles II of Spain and nobody contested that. The troubles started only when Leopold tried to secure Spain for his younger son at the expense of his daughter by his first wife. If Margarita left two sons is possible who the younger will become heir of Spain but if Ferdinand Wenzel lived and remained Margarita’s only son then he will be the Prince of Asturias and will inherit Spain leaving Austria to the elder son of Leopold and his next wife.
unprincipled peter
Donor
First, would Ferdinand renounce his claims in Austria/HRE? He would have to, or the world won't accept him in Spain. Is Spain the bigger prize, though?
Second, I don't think diplomatic efforts vary all that much. The goal is still to prevent war. Britain/Dutch Republic (basically tied at the hip, OTL, but depending on marriages and effects on the Glorious Revolution, may vary TTL) also wanted to break up the Spanish Empire. So, there will be talk of partition in an effort to appease France. With a stronger claimant than Karl (assuming Ferdinand or a Ferdinand son/brother is the candidate), Austria will balk at partition, as they did OTL. As you say, and as I posited above, France will go to war to get a piece of the pie, presuming the world is recognizable after 9YW/alt-no GR.
I would think so. Its not a big deal if Leopold has a second son either with Margaret Theresa or with a second wife. This would be solidified when the brother is older enough and could be elected King of the Romans which should still happen in the 1690s as Joseph was IOTL. That would leave no doubt in anyone's mind as to the future succession of the two realms/branches of the Habsburg family.
I agree that all sides wanted a lasting peace after the Nine Years War but I'm not sure the English and Dutch were so determined to break up the Spanish Empire. I mean maybe the English and Dutch back channel to the French and suggest that they would turn a blind eye if the French roll into Italy and take Naples as long as they don't contest Spain itself or attack the Spanish Netherlands but I'm not sure that an actual partition Treaty is so likely.
So I think the diplomatic situation at Charles II's death is probably a near universal recognition of Ferdinand Wenzel as his heir but maybe some kind of unwritten 'understanding' between the English and French that they wouldn't overtly oppose the French grabbing a slice of the pie if the Austrians refused to concede anything.
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If by that point Ferdinand is formally recognized as the Prince of Asturias & Girona or has become king of Spain (Castile, Aragon etc.), then I can see this happen. If he doesn't end up with Spain, this would make no sense, since then Ferdinand would be the heir of Hungary, Bohemia, Austria etc. and the logic Habsburg candidate for the position of Emperor.
Ferdinand probably will be sent to Spain for his education.
Which slice though? The Spanish Netherlands are off limits and all probably can agree that Austria is right to prefer Spain in the duchy of Milan than France. This leaves the kingdoms of Naples, Sicily and possibly Sardinia. And Sardinia is a maybe, only likely if France wins and Savoy was a loyal ally and they want to reward them with something, otherwise Sardinia will stay Spanish. Even a French kingdom of Naples & Sicily might be deemed a secundogeniture, once the Dauphin becomes king of France, this goes to his second son, not the eldest (like what Habsburg-Lorraine ended up doing with the Grand Duchy of Tuscany).
Yes, its a risk. And probably Leopold wouldn't want to have his younger son elected King of the Romans if he hasn't been able to secure the Spanish signoff on the elder as Charles' heir. But would Charles really resist such a proposition? I think the Spanish would go along with it. Its the best path forward from their perspective, to preserving the Spanish inheritance and keeping it out of French hands.
That is the tricky part. From the French perspective I think they'd be ok with Naples, they'd had their eyes on it for a while and they would know that going after the Spanish Netherlands will mean war with England and the Dutch. As for those two they could probably see their way to accepting a French Naples if it preserved the peace. But for Spain and Austria obviously its unacceptable. Loss of Naples would make Milan, which was typically dependent upon the resources of Naples for support, especially vulnerable. Milan would probably fall into Austrian orbit even if its ruler is still nominally the Spanish King. So Milan and the Netherlands (with its Dutch garrisons) will begin to drift away from Spanish control.
Or the French could really press their claims, maybe pushing for the exchange of Milan for Lorraine (with a slice of Milan to Savoy) but that may be a bridge too far if its on top of Naples and probably not enough to satisfy the French if its the only thing they get.
Yes, it is. Plus if he is the only surviving son of Margarita and Leopold had more sons from another marriage the split would be the most logical as only Ferdinand would have a direct claim on Spain
Can Charles II formally invest Ferdinand as Prince of Asturias? It's a great proposition for both Habsburg branches, but without a Spanish confirmation, an Election as King of the Romans is way to permanent to have your younger son elected, if your eldest son might possibly be the heir of his uncle in Spain.
If France agrees, that Naples & Sicily eventually go to a second son then other Powers (not Spain and Austria though) will certainly give their blessing.
IOTL Lorraine drove a hard bargain, when they were forced to exchange Lorraine & Bar for Tuscany and then their heir was allowed to marry the Austrian Habsburg heiress. Now that's not on the table, so they will want the whole duchy of Milan, IMHO this only leaves the kingdom of Sardinia for Savoy, provided they supported a victorious France, as a compensation. Since Naples & Sicily will go to a French prince, first the Dauphin and after him most likely the duke of Anjou.
Lorraine is not too likely but I think its still on the table. I've read that Leopold was receptive but negotiations for the exchange didn't go very far before war broke out. He'd only been restored in Lorraine a few years earlier and the conditions were such that it was going to be hard to keep Lorraine from becoming a French satellite. And he's heir to Mantova and Monferrat so moving to Milan could help him form a consolidated state so there is some logic to it.
Certainly different circumstances than when Francis Stephen had to give it up later on. He'd been born and raised in Lorraine, it had been over 30 years since their restoration. And he had already been forced to concede the Mantuan inheritance to Austria and Savoy so there was no longer an Italian connection.
I don't see Savoy getting anything. The French likely wouldn't need their support in any war if its just France vs Austria and Spain. And if they did I think a slice of the Duchy of Milan is more than adequate compensation.
Certainly different circumstances than when Francis Stephen had to give it up later on. He'd been born and raised in Lorraine, it had been over 30 years since their restoration. And he had already been forced to concede the Mantuan inheritance to Austria and Savoy so there was no longer an Italian connection.
I don't see Savoy getting anything. The French likely wouldn't need their support in any war if its just France vs Austria and Spain. And if they did I think a slice of the Duchy of Milan is more than adequate compensation.