Very nice, I really quite like it. Although I have seen bigger Israels that weren't considered ASB, you might be able to get this one with POD around '67 or so.
I was thinking the POD was before WWII, with more Ashkenazi Jews escaping to Mandatory Palestine, bulking up the demography. Granted, the 1949 line being the same given this change is suspiciously convergent. (You can kind of make out the green line in the map with the diagonal shading). But yeah, keeping thinks the same till '67, post '67 would have to see a huge amount of immigration from the USA to make the demographics feasible. One can envision the collapse of the Hashemites following 1967, and a prolonged 1973 war resulting in a revolutionary Jordan being conquered and occupied. So that divergence, in addition to Kissinger letting Israel off the leash once the tide turned in the '73 war.
The way I was picturing this, the Israeli majority is solid in areas annexed (Judea & Samaria, etc). (Not hard to envision WB being annexed; almost impossible to really do a reasonable timeline where the Gaza pill is not too bitter to swallow.) So somehow assume immigration and birthrates to make that so. Gaza and Transjordan take the role of Gaza and the West Bank in our timeline; large Arab population with a light smattering of Israeli settlement, primarily blocs in the Perea and Gilead districts.
I have also been toying with the idea of some sort of conversion of a large fraction of the Arab population in Judea & Samaria following 1967, somehow they get caught up in some roided out version of Messianism and rediscover Jewish roots. This is very ASB though.
This was the religious distribution I was toying with:
With Blue being Ashkenazi/Sephardi/Mizrahi/Ethiopian Jews, Green denoting Sunni/Shia/Druze Muslims, Red denoting Maronites, Greek Ortho., etc and Light Blue denoting Arabs who have joined some wacky, Messianic, Arabicized, Samaritan-like version of Judaism following spectacular defeats in '49 and '67. This last part is still iffy.
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