OTL at this time Hart was loading his fleet train with supplies and munitions; 8", 6", 5"/25, 3"/50, 4"/50, 3"/23, , 1.1", .50 Cal, MK VIII, Mk XIV torpedoes, the MK X's for the S boats and the oldest 5 fleet boats were to be the last loaded and go on the USS Canopus, and most were still in the Torpedo shop or warehouse at Cavite when it was bombed. Some MK VIII , MK X, and MK XIV had been moved by barge to Marivales Station on Bataan.If the information about the attack on HMS Reguius, manages to reach Pearl Harbour by the evening of the 6th, and into the hands of either Admiral Kimmel or his deputy. What are the chances that it could affect the alert status of the American forces in Hawaii to such an extent that the Japanese dawn attack on the 7th would be seriously affected. To which question my personal perspective is a resounding no, for two reasons. First and foremost the American authorities will want independence confirmation of the information before taking any action, along with instructions from Washington. Secondly it requires the authorities to appreciate the threat that exists, which they perceive to be sabotage, not a direct assault on the Islands. Despite the recent attack by the British on Taranto in the Mediterranean, there was no perception that such an attack could take place against Pearl, without a prior formal declaration of war. Nor it should be noted was this the Japanese plan, their plan was for there to be a formal declaration of war to be delivered in Washington, swiftly followed up by the attack on Pearl. The fact that this wouldn’t give sufficient time for the information of the declaration to be propagated to Pearl didn’t matter, as in Japanese eyes that was the Americans problem. And even if the declaration had been received in Washington and the Americans had by a miracle been able to inform Pearl, very little would have changed in the alert status in Pearl. As previously said the risk as the administration in Pearl saw it was primarily of sabotage attacks, as apposed to an assault on the Island. The Americans were more worried about a naval bombardment followed by an invasion attempt, than they were by an air strike, no one at the time had envisioned, a combined air attack from six aircraft carriers , the normal expectation was that combining more than two aircraft carriers together was unworkable. Pearl was a very long way away from any Japanese base and the Americans fully expected to receive sufficient warning of any approaching Japanese fleet. The idea that the Japanese could assemble a massive fleet containing all of their fleet carriers, leaving all their other fleets devoid of carriers, and sail it across the Pacific to Pearl, without being detected. Never crossed the minds of the United States Navy higher command, it was basically inconceivable at the time. So despite events in the South China Sea, my personal belief is the the Americans in both the Philippines and Pearl Harbour, will ITTL be caught with their thumb up their bum and their brains in neutral. The only officer that has a good chance of being awake and on his game is Admiral Hart, and he unfortunately has the dead hand of MacArthur and Washington constraining his actions.
RR.
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