Would it really matter if the trade is technically domestic if it still is trans-atlantic? Also people would get mad at Britain, sure, but they could do nothing, just stare angrily at them and try to buy French products instead of British ones.
They couldn't fight Britain, but they could become more sturbborn in relation to slavery.
 
As a whole, the idea that a country does not industrialize simply because of its past is wrong.
But I'm not talking abot the past only, it includes the present as well; for example, the majority of its railway network was built during the empire, but construction only picked up speed after the central goverment and some provincial ones guaranteed a minimum of return for the investiment, today the Trans-northeastearn railway being built is for transporting agricutural products for a port for export; you can see all the time in near divine reverence news outlets such as the Globo Group praise agricutiral development and nothing else, everything the federal government does must be in favour of soy plantations, hell Fantástico had a segment about semiconductors and didn't mentioned Ceitec once.
 
Brazil had reasons for becoming a naval power(even if it didn't): most reliable communication between regions was by ship until the second half of the last century. It had very few opportunities to do so, due to economic fragility, mostly. Periods of naval expansion were almost always during times where the economy was booming(biggest example being the 1910 Fleet; it wouldn't have been possible without the boom in rubber extraction - which ended soon after - and the Funding Loan deal that gave a momentary pause in debt service payments).

So, for instance, a Brazil that doesn't pay for the Portuguese debt as part of the Independence settlement, could very well be part of what allows Brazil to be a middling naval power (you'd need industrialization, probably Japanese-style, for a Brazil that is a major naval power). Having Angola would help, but you'd have trouble with the British concerning the slave trade between Angola and mainland Brazil, and no, the British wouldn't care that it would be trade between Brazilian provinces. I don't see Brazil industrializing before the very end of the 19th century, so a stronger Brazilian economy means Brazil exports something else in addition to coffee(which has its limitations as a cash crop) and sugar(which was becoming ever cheaper since the 17th century). I also don't see the vulcanization process being invented much sooner so... Tobacco? Cocoa? Vanilla(don't know when Europe started consuming this one for real, and it might not raise enough money to matter before artificial substitutes are invented)? Erva Mate(this affects Paraguay as well)? Something else(perhaps Guaraná becomes known outside Brazil earlier?)? Perhaps Brazil becomes the UK main supplier of cotton instead of the southern US? The last one has a lot of other implications to the timeline.

Oh, something else regarding the 1910 Fleet; Brazil was swept with enthusiasm for its Dreadnoughts when they arrived, enough that there were ideas of raising subscription campaigns for raising the money for Rio de Janeiro and even a fourth Dreadnought. Those plans died with the Revolt of the Lash, and the Navy was deliberately neglected during the 1910s. When proposals for the acquisition of newer ships were made in the early 1920s, the support of naval officers for the Tenentista revolts against Artur Bernardes ensured those plans didn't go further. So, ensure the prohibition of the Lash as a punishment(something enacted in the 1890s) gets enforced, and you get a stronger Brazilian Navy in the early 20th century. Ensure the election and swearing in of Artur Bernardes is peaceful and you get modern cruisers and destroyers for the Brazilian Navy in the 1920s, mitigating the block obsolescence problem it suffered in the 1930s.
 
Yes? If you're talking about the quoted text, it's not correct. Vargas cared about military modernization, if only because a big part of his support base(former Tenentes) cared about it(although most of them cared about Army modernization, being Army officers). But in the 1930s, Brazil didn't have much money to spare - and the fact that Brazil was trying to renegotiate its foreign debt(again), and the British(the main prospective sellers) didn't like the conditions proposed much(to say the least) also was a problem.
 
Yes? If you're talking about the quoted text, it's not correct. Vargas cared about military modernization, if only because a big part of his support base(former Tenentes) cared about it(although most of them cared about Army modernization, being Army officers). But in the 1930s, Brazil didn't have much money to spare - and the fact that Brazil was trying to renegotiate its foreign debt(again), and the British(the main prospective sellers) didn't like the conditions proposed much(to say the least) also was a problem.

Sharp as a razor, as always.
 
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