Magnum's naval PoD's. Ep. 6 - Large mid-war Kriegsmarine fleet-in-being

[Magnum]

A thread title can never do you justice. There was so much more I wanted it to convey, so many different versions of it I considered - "a limited invasion of Norway", "a more cautious Kriegsmarine" etc.

In any case, whilst I waste my time away in the queue at the car wash, here's the basic gist of it:

There are basically two main parts to this idea, inexorably linked to one another. The first one is WI the Germans had a large(er) fleet in Norway in 42/43, looking menacingly at the British? The second, which is a necessary but insufficient condition for the first, is WI the Germans only launched a limited invasion of southern Norway instead of the OTL Op. Weserubung, thus conserving their ships.

1.
So, beginning with the latter issue first:
- the landings at Bergen, Trondheim and Narvik are scrapped
- the only heavy ships involved in forcing the Drobak Sound are the two pre-dreadnoughts. Schlesswig-Holstein gets sunk on the way in by the Norwegian coastal defences, Hessen on the way out by British submarines
- the other landings remain unchanged

IMHO, there is no reason why such a limited invasion couldn't work. Yes, the Norwegians could mobilize an extra 2-3 poor-quality infantry divisions, and yes the campaign might drag on for an extra month or so after France falls, but that's immaterial in the grand scheme of things. Is this reasonable to assume?

2.
Now, for the more juicy part:
- Flugzeugtrager B is never started
- Lutzow and Seidlitz are finish earlier
- something else is given to the Soviets instead of Lutzow
- Graf Zeppelin is put into 'action' with dummy guns; her sole purpose to force the Brits keep an extra carrier on hand
- Graf Spee makes it out alive from the South Atlantic
- Bismark sinks the Hood, mission-kills the Prince of Wales but is so beat up herself that she heads back to Norway and actually makes it
- various all other heavy ships, while damaged in the early part of the war, are not sunk, and are all ready for action in the summer/autumn of '41; moreover, except for 1 'pocket battleship', none of them are in France
- butterflies are otherwise kept to a bare minimum

So, how does this affect the Arctic convoys, as well as the overall deployment and grand strategy of the Allies, if at all?

 

[HMS Warspite]

1.
So, beginning with the latter issue first:
- the landings at Bergen, Trondheim and Narvik are scrapped
* Narvik was the primary objective actually so no Narvik is basically the same as no Norway at all.
- the only heavy ships involved in forcing the Drobak Sound are the two pre-dreadnoughts. Schlesswig-Holstein gets sunk on the way in by the Norwegian coastal defences, Hessen on the way out by British submarines
- See above, though any actual landing including naval transport and support would mean the entire Kriegsmarine with all what was available at the time, simply as the challence offered by the mere presence of the Allied Navies (especially the Royal Navy) would force this sort of action.
- the other landings remain unchanged

IMHO, there is no reason why such a limited invasion couldn't work. Yes, the Norwegians could mobilize an extra 2-3 poor-quality infantry divisions, and yes the campaign might drag on for an extra month or so after France falls, but that's immaterial in the grand scheme of things. Is this reasonable to assume?

2.
Now, for the more juicy part:
- Flugzeugtrager B is never started
- Logical.
- Lutzow and Seidlitz are finish earlier
- Not a change, as long as domestic politcs were not changed in the 30's. Wehrmacht and Luftwaffe had priority over the Kriegsmarine in terms of resources allocated ti these branches.
- something else is given to the Soviets instead of Lutzow
- Logical
- Graf Zeppelin is put into 'action' with dummy guns; her sole purpose to force the Brits keep an extra carrier on hand
- I do not see the point here, as British intelligence was not so much concerned about the Graf Zeppelin's gunnery value, rather than her potential Aviation capabilities. The presence of a hostile airforce in the Mid Atlantic was the greatest fear of the Allies, besides the U-Boote. Surfaceships were a challence as well, but these could be handled, if necessary by counter tactics on the long term. Aviation was an entire different sort of beast to which the early war Royal Navy had no real answer at the time, given the capabilities of the FAA at the time.
- Graf Spee makes it out alive from the South Atlantic
- Unlikely, but a very minor change, if luck was just as similar as later with Admiral Scheer.
- Bismark sinks the Hood, mission-kills the Prince of Wales but is so beat up herself that she heads back to Norway and actually makes it.
- Likely, though all would depend on what sort of damage Bismarck would recieve, forcing her to either a temporary patching up in an undevelopped base, or demanding a large drydock to do so, which was only available in France.
- various other heavy ships, while damaged in the early part of the war, are not sunk, and are all ready for action in the summer/autumn of '41; moreover, except for 1 'pocket battleship', none of them are in France
- Much would depend on the sort of strategy the kriegsmarine deployed, either surface raiding like in the OTL, or more coastal defense and support sort of operations. Heavy ships were not the main issue here as the real demand was on the supporting medium and lighter forces, which were both in seriously limited numbers present, never in the quantity needed for more offensive operations. A serious problem existed in terms of Destroyer type ships, as the few present were not of the best quality, besides being oversized and seriously hampered by their short radius and limmited seakeepingness. Large torpedoboats could not make up for this as these were also too limmited in numbers and a lot of them even shorter ranged and often not very well designed (Type 34 for instance)
- butterflies are otherwise kept to a bare minimum

So, how does this affect the Arctic convoys, as well as the overall deployment and grand strategy of the Allies, if at all?

- So the Kriegsmarine will get at Norway against the Arctic Convoy's a fleet in being of both Bismarck and Tirpitz, as well as occasionally either Scharnhorst, or Gneisenau, as one will likely to be in Germany for trainingpurposes every now and then, as the Kriegsmarine will not wishing to withdraw one of the two larger Battleships for this purpose. Possibly on a rotation system the maximum number of eight heavy cruisers (Both Deutschland and Hipper Classes) with possibly four at best in Norway at any time. All large available destroyers as well, and some smaller torpedoboote of especially the type 1939, which was the most capable. A Luftwaffe presence would also be demanded, but Göring, being Göring, uncertain about its continuallity as support for the Fleet there. This later issue would seriously hamper the effectiveness of a fleet in being in Norway.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

Some things you haven't mentioned.

A thread title can never do you justice. There was so much more I wanted it to convey, so many different versions of it I considered - "a limited invasion of Norway", "a more cautious Kriegsmarine" etc.

In any case, whilst I waste my time away in the queue at the car wash, here's the basic gist of it:

There are basically two main parts to this idea, inexorably linked to one another. The first one is WI the Germans had a large(er) fleet in Norway in 42/43, looking menacingly at the British? The second, which is a necessary but insufficient condition for the first, is WI the Germans only launched a limited invasion of southern Norway instead of the OTL Op. Weserubung, thus conserving their ships.

1.
So, beginning with the latter issue first:
- the landings at Bergen, Trondheim and Narvik are scrapped
- the only heavy ships involved in forcing the Drobak Sound are the two pre-dreadnoughts. Schlesswig-Holstein gets sunk on the way in by the Norwegian coastal defences, Hessen on the way out by British submarines
- the other landings remain unchanged

IMHO, there is no reason why such a limited invasion couldn't work. Yes, the Norwegians could mobilize an extra 2-3 poor-quality infantry divisions, and yes the campaign might drag on for an extra month or so after France falls, but that's immaterial in the grand scheme of things. Is this reasonable to assume?

2.
Now, for the more juicy part:
- Flugzeugtrager B is never started
- Lutzow and Seidlitz are finish earlier
- something else is given to the Soviets instead of Lutzow
- Graf Zeppelin is put into 'action' with dummy guns; her sole purpose to force the Brits keep an extra carrier on hand
- Graf Spee makes it out alive from the South Atlantic
- Bismark sinks the Hood, mission-kills the Prince of Wales but is so beat up herself that she heads back to Norway and actually makes it
- various other heavy ships, while damaged in the early part of the war, are not sunk, and are all ready for action in the summer/autumn of '41; moreover, except for 1 'pocket battleship', none of them are in France
- butterflies are otherwise kept to a bare minimum

So, how does this affect the Arctic convoys, as well as the overall deployment and grand strategy of the Allies, if at all?

I don't see The Twins and Prinz Eugen mentioned.

What if the Twins weren't mined during the Channel Dash and were able to sail for Norway on 21st February 1942 with Prinz Eugen & Scheer and all 4 ships reached their destination undamaged? (The air raid that severely damaged Gneisenau wasn't until the night of 26/27 February IOTL.) Is that allowed?

 

[Magnum]

Some things you haven't mentioned.
I don't see The Twins and Prinz Eugen mentioned.

What if the Twins weren't mined during the Channel Dash and were able to sail for Norway on 21st February 1942 with Prinz Eugen & Scheer and all 4 ships reached their destination undamaged? (The air raid that severely damaged Gneisenau wasn't until the night of 26/27 February IOTL.) Is that allowed?

Yes, obviously. I shoukd have written "all other" instead of "various other heavy ships"

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

These are the OTL dates of departure from Germany from Wikipaedia (sorry).

14/01/1942 Tirpitz
21/02/1942 Scheer & Prinz Eugen, but Prinz Eugen was torpedoed by a British submarine and had to return to Germany for repairs
19/03/1942 Hipper
15/05/1942 Lützow
Jul-42 Köln
07/01/1943 Scharnhorst and Prinz Eugen, but the force turned back
08/03/1943 Scharnhorst​

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

1.
So, beginning with the latter issue first:
- the landings at Bergen, Trondheim and Narvik are scrapped
* Narvik was the primary objective actually so no Narvik is basically the same as no Norway at all.
- the only heavy ships involved in forcing the Drobak Sound are the two pre-dreadnoughts. Schlesswig-Holstein gets sunk on the way in by the Norwegian coastal defences, Hessen on the way out by British submarines
- See above, though any actual landing including naval transport and support would mean the entire Kriegsmarine with all what was available at the time, simply as the challence offered by the mere presence of the Allied Navies (especially the Royal Navy) would force this sort of action.
- the other landings remain unchanged

IMHO, there is no reason why such a limited invasion couldn't work. Yes, the Norwegians could mobilize an extra 2-3 poor-quality infantry divisions, and yes the campaign might drag on for an extra month or so after France falls, but that's immaterial in the grand scheme of things. Is this reasonable to assume?

Are the 10 Z-boats sunk at Narvik IOTL still afloat and battleworthy in January 1942 ITTL? Their presence in Norway could make just as much difference as the extra heavy units.

 

[Magnum]

Are the 10 Z-boats sunk at Narvik IOTL still afloat and battleworthy in January 1942 ITTL? Their presence in Norway could make just as much difference as the extra heavy units.

Yes, as they never went to Narvik otl. The only two ships the Germans lose in Weserubung are the 2 pre-dreads

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

There are basically two main parts to this idea, inexorably linked to one another. The first one is WI the Germans had a large(er) fleet in Norway in 42/43, looking menacingly at the British? The second, which is a necessary but insufficient condition for the first, is WI the Germans only launched a limited invasion of southern Norway instead of the OTL Op. Weserubung, thus conserving their ships.

1. So, beginning with the latter issue first:
- the landings at Bergen, Trondheim and Narvik are scrapped
- the only heavy ships involved in forcing the Drobak Sound are the two pre-dreadnoughts. Schlesswig-Holstein gets sunk on the way in by the Norwegian coastal defences, Hessen on the way out by British submarines
- the other landings remain unchanged

IMHO, there is no reason why such a limited invasion couldn't work. Yes, the Norwegians could mobilize an extra 2-3 poor-quality infantry divisions, and yes the campaign might drag on for an extra month or so after France falls, but that's immaterial in the grand scheme of things. Is this reasonable to assume?

It might make the capture of Oslo easier and the subsequent advance north faster.

AIUI the Norwegians ordered a last minute partial mobilisation after the Rio de Janiero was sunk. ITTL she can't be sunk because she wasn't on her way to Bergen. This might save the Blücher and there might not be enough time to get the Gladiator fighters defending Oslo ready. (I know you said that Oslo is attacked by the 2 pre-dreadnoughts ITTL).

AIUI British submarines were able to torpedo Lützow on her way back from Oslo and sink Karlsruhe on her way back from Kristiansand because they had weak destroyer screens. However, ITTL their A/S screens can be bolstered with the 14 Z-boats and 2 small destroyers that IOTL were part of Groups 1, 2 and 3.

OTOH it will be much easier for the British and French to send aid to the Norwegians to help them hold the centre and north of the country.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

Does this also mean that Operation Juno doesn't happen?

These are the British ships sunk in the OTL Norwegian Campaign:

Aircraft Carrier: Glorious
Cruisers (2): Curlew and Effingham
Destroyers (8): Ardent, Acasta, Afridi, Ardent, Glowworm, Gurkha, Hardy & Hunter
Sloop: Bittern

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

So, how does this affect the Arctic convoys, as well as the overall deployment and grand strategy of the Allies, if at all?

What are the KM ships that were sunk by the end of June 1940 IOTL, but still afloat ITTL going to do between July 1940 and December 1941? What are the German ships that were damaged in the invasion and out of action for the rest of 1940 IOTL, going to do fort the next year and a half ITTL?

This is what I think some of them will be doing...

ITTL Lützow doesn't take part in the attack on Oslo so she can't be torpedoed on the way back. Therefore, she's sent to sea with Scheer at the end of October 1940, which is very bad for the convoy HX84 if they still meet. I can't decide whether they operate independently or as a pair after reaching the South Atlantic. If they operate independently they sink more ships, but it also increases the chance of one of them being caught and sunk. If they operate together they probably don't sink any more ships than Scheer did on her own, but they return to Germany and will be ready to be sent to Norway in the first half of 1942.

ITTL Blücher doesn't take part in the attack on Oslo so it can't be sunk the Norwegian coast defences. Therefore, she's sent to sea with Hipper at the end of November 1940. They might do more damage to the WS5A troop convoy and sink more of the SL64 convoy. Then they return to Germany at the same time as Hipper IOTL.

If Operation Juno doesn't happen Scharnhorst won't be torpedoed by the Acasta and Gneisenau won't be torpedoed by the submarine Clyde. This means an earlier Operation Berlin. I think that they sail with Blücher and Hipper at the end of November 1940 instead of 22nd January 1941. If the squadron breaks into the North Atlantic successfully and still encounters WS5A the convoy and its escort probably suffer heavily.

I think that both heavy cruisers return to Germany at the same time as Hipper did IOTL, but the Twins remain at Brest. The extra 6 weeks might be enough time to have them ready to put to sea in May 1941 to support Bismarck and Prinz Eugen.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

2. Now, for the more juicy part:
- Flugzeugtrager B is never started
- Lutzow and Seidlitz are finish earlier
- something else is given to the Soviets instead of Lutzow
- Graf Zeppelin is put into 'action' with dummy guns; her sole purpose to force the Brits keep an extra carrier on hand
- Graf Spee makes it out alive from the South Atlantic
- Bismark sinks the Hood, mission-kills the Prince of Wales but is so beat up herself that she heads back to Norway and actually makes it
- various all other heavy ships, while damaged in the early part of the war, are not sunk, and are all ready for action in the summer/autumn of '41; moreover, except for 1 'pocket battleship', none of them are in France
- butterflies are otherwise kept to a bare minimum

-Is the material used on Aircraft Carrier B IOTL used to accelerate the construction of Lützow and Seydlitz? Are they completed in 1941 and not worked up until early 1942 to minimise the butterflies?
-Don't build Graff Zeppelin either to reduce the overloading on the German naval shipbuilding industry in the second half of the 1930s.
-I'd prefer to have Graff Spee go down fighting at the River Plate taking Exeter with her.
-Bismarck is luckier. The torpedo that jammed her steering IOTL hits a less vital part of the ship or misses completely. She makes Brest, is repaired at St Nazaire and returns to Germany with the Twins and Prinz Eugen in the OTL Channel Dash. Then she leaves Germany for Norway on 21st February 1942 with the Twins and Prinz Eugen.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

Here's a link to the page on the Russian Convoys from Naval-History Net

https://www.naval-history.net/WW2CampaignsRussianConvoys.htm

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

So, how does this affect the Arctic convoys, as well as the overall deployment and grand strategy of the Allies, if at all?

IOTL they Germans had Tirpitz and Scheer in Norway by the end of March 1942. By the end of May 1942 Tirpitz, Lützow, Scheer, Hipper and 10 Z-boats were there.

ITTL I see the built up being along the lines of:

January 1942 - Graff Zeppelin, Lützow (the heavy cruiser), Seydlitz and Tirpitz
February 1942 - Bismarck, Gneisenau, Prinz Eugen, Scharnhorst and Scheer
March 1942 - Blücher and Hipper
May 1942 - Graff Spee and Lützow (the panzerschiffe)​

The total force would be:

Aircraft Carriers: Graff Zeppelin
Capital Ships: Bismarck, Gneisenau, Scharnhorst and Tirpitz
Panzerschiffen: Graff Spee, Lützow and Scheer
Heavy Cruisers: Blücher, Hipper, Lützow, Prinz Eugen and Seydlitz

With 20 Z-boats to screen them.​

A fleet in being of that size would make the Admiralty want to suspend the Russian convoys after PQ11 and QP7. It would want to maintain a stronger Home Fleet than OTL to make a German sortie into the North Atlantic suicidal. However, Churchill might want them to be continued for political reasons.

If a stronger Home Fleet was maintained in 1942 fewer ships would be available for Force H, the Mediterranean Fleet and the Eastern Fleet. Something would have to give. The obvious thing is a suspension of Malta convoys. That won't enable the Axis forces in Libya to invade Egypt. However, it will make western Libya and Tunisia easier to supply, which may delay the clearance of North Africa and the invasions of Sicily and mainland Italy.

If the Russian Convoys are continued to PQ18 the Germans might not have enough fuel to use all their ships. And AIUI some of the convoys weren't attacked IOTL because the Germans didn't spot them and they would still have that problem IOTL.

When the JW convoys resumed in December 1942 each operation was run as two small convoys instead of one big one because they were thought to be more manageable. However, this halved the escort. All other things being equal ITTL JW51B could have been attacked by 4 Hipper class and 12 Z-boats which aught to have overwhelmed its OTL escort before the British cruisers arrived. However, I think the RN would continue to run large convoys because one large convoy would have double the escort of two small convoys and the covering cruisers would be nearer. Plus AIUI the Germans didn't detect the OTL JW51A. Had JW51A been the single large convoy ITTL it might still have reached Russia without being detected.

 

[Magnum]

snip

Apologies for not responding yet. It's a lot to unpack, and I don't have that much time. I'll get to this tomorrow. I'll just say for now that even OTL the Germans demonstrated that what mattered was the main campaign in southern/central Norway, not whether they temporarily controlled Narvik. Hell, they were pushed out of Narvik IRL but still managed to get complete control over Norway

 

[Magnum]

IOTL they Germans had Tirpitz and Scheer in Norway by the end of March 1942. By the end of May 1942 Tirpitz, Lützow, Scheer, Hipper and 10 Z-boats were there.

ITTL I see the built up being along the lines of:

January 1942 - Graff Zeppelin, Lützow (the heavy cruiser), Seydlitz and Tirpitz
February 1942 - Bismarck, Gneisenau, Prinz Eugen, Scharnhorst and Scheer
March 1942 - Blücher and Hipper
May 1942 - Graff Spee and Lützow (the panzerschiffe)​

The total force would be:

Aircraft Carriers: Graff Zeppelin
Capital Ships: Bismarck, Gneisenau, Scharnhorst and Tirpitz
Panzerschiffen: Graff Spee, Lützow and Scheer
Heavy Cruisers: Blücher, Hipper, Lützow, Prinz Eugen and Seydlitz

With 20 Z-boats to screen them.​

A fleet in being of that size would make the Admiralty want to suspend the Russian convoys after PQ11 and QP7. It would want to maintain a stronger Home Fleet than OTL to make a German sortie into the North Atlantic suicidal. However, Churchill might want them to be continued for political reasons.

If a stronger Home Fleet was maintained in 1942 fewer ships would be available for Force H, the Mediterranean Fleet and the Eastern Fleet. Something would have to give. The obvious thing is a suspension of Malta convoys. That won't enable the Axis forces in Libya to invade Egypt. However, it will make western Libya and Tunisia easier to supply, which may delay the clearance of North Africa and the invasions of Sicily and mainland Italy.

If the Russian Convoys are continued to PQ18 the Germans might not have enough fuel to use all their ships. And AIUI some of the convoys weren't attacked IOTL because the Germans didn't spot them and they would still have that problem IOTL.

When the JW convoys resumed in December 1942 each operation was run as two small convoys instead of one big one because they were thought to be more manageable. However, this halved the escort. All other things being equal ITTL JW51B could have been attacked by 4 Hipper class and 12 Z-boats which aught to have overwhelmed its OTL escort before the British cruisers arrived. However, I think the RN would continue to run large convoys because one large convoy would have double the escort of two small convoys and the covering cruisers would be nearer. Plus AIUI the Germans didn't detect the OTL JW51A. Had JW51A been the single large convoy ITTL it might still have reached Russia without being detected.

Do you envisage a large fleet battle? Or more US ships being diverted from the Pacific?

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

Graff Zeppelin is put into 'action' with dummy guns; her sole purpose to force the Brits keep an extra carrier on hand.

The extra aircraft carrier is likely to be Glorious because she isn't sunk in the TTL evacuation of Norway.

However, that does prevent her from being sent to places where she could significantly harm the Axis cause like reinforcing the Mediterranean Fleet, Force H and Force Z.

OTOH as the Bismarck survives ITTL there is no Force Z because Prince of Wales and Repulse are needed to reinforce the Home Fleet.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

Do you envisage a large fleet battle? Or more US ships being diverted from the Pacific?

Both are possible.

OTL in March 1942 the Home Fleet had the capital ships Duke of York, King George V and Renown plus the aircraft carrier Victorious to protect convoys PQ12 and QP8 from Scheer and Tirpitz.

TTL they have Duke of York, King George V, Prince of Wales, Repulse and Renown (five capital ships) and the aircraft carriers Glorious and Victorious (two ships). But the Germans have Bismarck, Gneisenau, Scharnhorst and Tirpitz (four capital ships) and Lützow (the heavy cruiser), Prinz Eugen and Seydlitz (three heavy cruisers).

There's potential for a fleet action here.

 

[I want to learn]

Weren’t USS Washington and USS Wasp in the North Atlantic with the British Home Fleet around that time?

 

[Spencersj345.346]

Weren’t USS Washington and USS Wasp in the North Atlantic with the British Home Fleet around that time?

Yep and in this timeline its possible North Carolina along with Ranger joins them with the first two South Dakotas being the first modern battleships sent to the Pacific theatre

 

[Killer in]

Also building these additional ships means fewer U-boats, meaning the RN should have to build fewer escorts. Meaning Vanguard and the Implacables should be less delayed too.