M-R Pact WI: Stalin Tries To Take The Turkish Straits

[Napoleon IV]

During the negotiations for the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact the Soviets mentioned that they wanted to establish military control of the Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits in Turkey. Let's say Stalin decides to do that, and instead of the Winter War launches an attack on Turkey. How does it turn out?

 

[kclcmdr]

During the negotiations for the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact the Soviets mentioned that they wanted to establish military control of the Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits in Turkey. Let's say Stalin decides to do that, and instead of the Winter War launches an attack on Turkey. How does it turn out?

Soviets threatens the Mediterrean Sea with the military adventurism attempt to take over the Straits and strangle trade in that region and possibly use their Fleet Assets to spread their influence in the region..

Turkey is aflame with war while the Soviet's actions alarms Romania, Bulgaria, whom needs the straits open to allow their merchant ships to travel to the Med to go pick up cargo, fuel and whatnots..

Hungary and Yugoslavia are concern likewise...

Italy, France and Great Britain, especially Great Britain, sees that this is the DAGGAR aimed straight at the economic commerce web that allows their respective Empires and Republic to run smoothly and are forced into an impromptu Alliance.......

 

[Files]

I've heard that there was discussion over ensuring that the Soviet Union would be able to freely pass through the straits, but that seems different than "military control". I think that to hazard a guess on what an ATL might be, it would help to see the specific Soviet proposals re: the straits. Do you know where to read something like that?

 

[thaddeus]

tried to ask same question myself https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=364090 but more focused on whether Germany could have conceded Bulgaria to USSR in return for Finland and Lithuania in their sphere of influence.

believe that the discussions about Straits were more during German-Soviet Axis talks https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German–Soviet_Axis_talks than during M-R Pact, as Stalin wanted bases and/or passage through Bulgaria.

of course the argument is that ideology prevents continued or more expansive German-Soviet partnership but if Italy and Japan got cold feet Germans might have been forced to continue.

 

[Caesar Biden]

The WAllies get a whole lot more serious about fighting the Soviets as well as the Nazis. The Soviets end up being overstretched, and Bulgaria and Romania get a lot more concerned about them. When Barbarossa rolls around they abandon what they have in Turkey and end up at significantly worse footing, if they didn't get trashed immediately.

 

[Pesterfield]

Would Soviet forces from Armenia be used?

On one hand it opens a front on the other end of Turkey, on the other letting the Armenian SSR go after Turkey has the danger of stoking nationalism.

 

[tallthinkev]

It's going to be bad for the USSR. There are already French forces in Syria and Lebanon, British in Palestine and Trans Jordan, plus their fleets in the Med. Plus it's a short trip for forces for both counties to get more from North Africa, and not that far from India. Turkey will not take this well, but still may put a good enough fight to give Russia a bloody nose.
Greece?
Meanwhile back in Rome......

 

[thaddeus]

my speculation was around continued German-Soviet Axis with Soviets in Bulgaria, there was some speculative offers from Soviets about aiding them in capturing Turkish Thrace also.

any miscalculation by Greece and they get invaded per OTL, Soviets would have bases on eastern coast of Black Sea and Med (both sides of Straits)

 

[MattII]

They'd have to come from the east, which is a slow journey given the poor state of Turkey's infrastructure.

 

[Glenn239]

During the negotiations for the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact the Soviets mentioned that they wanted to establish military control of the Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits in Turkey. Let's say Stalin decides to do that, and instead of the Winter War launches an attack on Turkey. How does it turn out?

Poorly for Turkey.

 

[raharris1973]

Regardless of the operational problems and diplomatic costs the Soviets would face, them moving and seizing the Kars-Ardahan 1914 border is surely as achievable as their historic gains against Finland, the Baltics, Poland and Romania.

The straits are much more operationally challenging because of the need to cross water and the more densely populated and urban terrain.

The Soviets operational solution to their strategic goal may be to maximize their advance as much as possible in northeastern Turkey, say to the line they occupied by OTL early 1917, and then offer to return territory up to the 1914 border line in exchange for the Turks accepting Soviet establishment of forts and naval bases at the straits.

{Soviet life gets more complicated if the Turks hold out, say "no deal" and otherwise do not behave as Moscow hopes and expects)

In theory, this type of "Finnish-style" victory (not sure it would be as hard fought for the Soviet side) would leave Turkey motivated to fight a continuation war, once the Germans begin Barbarossa. But the problem for the Turks at the point would be their southern frontiers and coasts would be vulnerable to retaliation from the WAllies in a way that Finland's Baltic frontiers were not.

As for the Romanians and Bulgarians - the Romanians will be freaked out but will have little ability to do anything to oppose the Soviets that would not simply bring greater harm upon themselves.

The Bulgarians will have mixed feelings about Russia in the straits, balancing their Russophilia against their monarchism, discomfort with another major power's control of their trade and their own desires for Constantinople and the straits.

---It probably would not go down this way, but the Greeks, Bulgarians and Italians could try to join the USSR in an anti-Turkish pile-on to all get their own slice.

--When Barbarossa rolls around they abandon what they have in Turkey and end up at significantly worse footing, if they didn't get trashed immediately.

This might be hard in practice- the Soviet presence in the straits, even if not a full occupation, may give the Bulgarians the stones to not align with the Axis and permit German forces to pass. This of course carries a high risk of war for Bulgaria, but it slows down everything the Axis can do in the Balkans a little bit.

Also, western hostility to the Soviet occupation of the straits evaporates entirely once Germany invades the Soviet Union and thereby becomes an ally. London immediately comes to regard the straits as a valuable flank for the anti-German coalition to keep a hold of.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

I would think the best bet for the Soviets here would be to convince Bulgaria to ally with them, so the Soviets could land troops in Bulgaria, and take European Turkey from the land side.

A lot easier than marching the entire length of Anatolia.

Of course, what incentives they could offer to get Bulgaria to jump their way, I'm not sure.

===
As others have pointed out, this makes Operation Pike and similar (having France and Britain declare war on the USSR) much more likely.

If the Nazis still invade the USSR in '41, it's going to be a right mess.

 

[Tyg]

Might this convince Mussolini to stay neutral vis-a-vis France and Britain? Soviet occupation of Finland is a far less disturbing prospect for Italy than the USSR getting open access to the Mediterranean. German acceptance of such a thing at the very least is going to badly strain relations between Rome and Berlin.

What are the odds that Mussolini gives Germany the finger, and directly intervenes in Turkey's favor? It seems likely that most of the Balkans would favor Italy and Turkey, possibly to the extent of some degree of support. A clever move for Italy would be to build an anti-Soviet coalition covering the Balkans and Franco's Spain, Portugal, etc. Germany just proved itself to be deeply unreliable, which gives Italy the chance to reassert itself as a leading power.

That could be a 'fun' multi-sided set of expanding conflicts.

 

[raharris1973]

Might this convince Mussolini to stay neutral vis-a-vis France and Britain? Soviet occupation of Finland is a far less disturbing prospect for Italy than the USSR getting open access to the Mediterranean. German acceptance of such a thing at the very least is going to badly strain relations between Rome and Berlin.

What are the odds that Mussolini gives Germany the finger, and directly intervenes in Turkey's favor? It seems likely that most of the Balkans would favor Italy and Turkey, possibly to the extent of some degree of support. A clever move for Italy would be to build an anti-Soviet coalition covering the Balkans and Franco's Spain, Portugal, etc. Germany just proved itself to be deeply unreliable, which gives Italy the chance to reassert itself as a leading power.

That could be a 'fun' multi-sided set of expanding conflicts.

Maybe, and its an interesting idea.

However the the likelihood of *all* Balkan countries taking a common stand seems unlikely. Balkan history suggests that some countries will react to a neighbor's pro-Italian stand by taking an anti-Italian one.

Mussolini, and Balkan states like Greece and Bulgaria might also react more pragmatically towards the Russian move against Turkey, seeking their own deals with Russia at Turkish expense, tolerate Russian domination of eastern and northern Turkey and the straits in return for Bulgaria (or Greece) getting the rest of Thrace, Greece getting Smyrna and Italy getting the sphere of influence in southwestern Turkey it was promised during WWI. Heck, with that kind of a dogpile, the Vichy French in Syria might claim the portions of south-central Turkey that were pledged to French influence in the Sykes-Picot map.

 

[thaddeus]

Soviet claims, at least post-war, were in eastern Turkey https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_territorial_claims_against_Turkey , plausible that Germany-USSR agree to restore earlier Russian borders with Turkey.

leaving aside how the Balkans are divided and whether Italy joins the war, if the Soviets forced territorial concession on Turkey and gained a warm water base in the Med (occupied Greece, Vichy Syria, or even an occupied Cyprus) that might be enough leverage over the Turkish Straits?

 

[raharris1973]

and gained a warm water base in the Med (occupied Greece, Vichy Syria, or even an occupied Cyprus) that might be enough leverage over the Turkish Straits?

What was the chain of events you had in mind leading to Soviet access to Greece, Vichy Syria or Cyprus? Sounds like a challenging scenario, but an intriguing one.

 

[thaddeus]

Soviet claims, at least post-war, were in eastern Turkey https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_territorial_claims_against_Turkey , plausible that Germany-USSR agree to restore earlier Russian borders with Turkey.

leaving aside how the Balkans are divided and whether Italy joins the war, if the Soviets forced territorial concession on Turkey and gained a warm water base in the Med (occupied Greece, Vichy Syria, or even an occupied Cyprus) that might be enough leverage over the Turkish Straits?

What was the chain of events you had in mind leading to Soviet access to Greece, Vichy Syria or Cyprus? Sounds like a challenging scenario, but an intriguing one.

try to dominate Turkey as they had the rest of the Balkans, to assure the chrome production and open Turkish Straits. USSR kept requesting a base in Bulgaria, they could use Alexandroupoli in (Bulgarian) occupied Greece.

(with or without Axis Italy)

 

[Tyg]

Maybe, and its an interesting idea.

However the the likelihood of *all* Balkan countries taking a common stand seems unlikely. Balkan history suggests that some countries will react to a neighbor's pro-Italian stand by taking an anti-Italian one.

I wouldn't expect them all to stand shoulder-to-shoulder, but it's possible that they'd be willing to be friendly neutrals or quietly cooperative with whatever anti-Soviet coalition that gets cobbled together. Paranoia about Communist revolution or undermining of the establishment can be a powerful thing. If Mussolini is willing to cut deals in order to get his alliance together, (or secure favorable neutrality) then so much the better for the Balkans.

The reaction of Britain and France would also be one to watch. There were serious discussions of directly aiding Finland, even though that country was not nearly as important strategically as Turkey. If Italy intervenes in support of Turkey, perhaps along with one or two Balkan nations, then it might be in French and British interests to provide at least indirect support. They'd certainly like to keep Italy neutral in the war with Germany, and the Soviet Union was viewed as an effective co-belligerent at this point. That means French and British diplomacy and aid would probably be driving the Balkan nations to support an Italian intervention against the USSR (though one imagines that things would get complicated with Hungary).

 

[sloreck]

British and French foreign policy had been for perhaps 100 years united in preventing Russian control of the straits. If the Russians make a move before Barbarossa, and once that starts they are far too busy to try it, I would expect the British and French to do everything they could diplomatically and militarily to aid the Turks and prevent Stalin from owning the straits. A Soviet attack to get the straits will poison the well in a way that their attack on Finland did not. Assuming Barbarossa goes off as OTL, I can see the British being much more measured in any direct aid to the USSR, and likewise the Americans as well - less LL and calibrated to keep the USSR from drowning but not much more. The demands Hitler would make on the USSR for an armistice would be much more than the Brest-Litovsk treaty, so a separate peace between Stalin and Hitler especially with Hitler winning is unlikely.

Another factor is one thing the Allies did not want was Turkey joining the Axis. A Soviet incursion/attempt on the straits would do just that, in spite of the overall desire of Turkey to remain neutral. Bulgaria and maybe even Greece would either join the Axis or tilt that way to avoid becoming a potential target of the Axis. Certainly friendly neutrality to the Axis would be their position at a minimum.

BTW any forces the USSR uses against Turkey to grab land/straits will be forces that are useless during Barbarossa, making things easier for Hitler...

 

[Hammurabi]

BTW any forces the USSR uses against Turkey to grab land/straits will be forces that are useless during Barbarossa, making things easier for Hitler...

Which operates on the assumption that the war wouldn't end before the invasion kicked off.

The very point of divergence, or the time in which the Soviets actually kick off an invasion, could be before the Fall of France, and thus subsequently kick off butterfly's which, well, butterfly away France's defeat, and thus any notion of a German invasion of the Soviet Union.