Let's say the Nazis win WW2 somehow. Hitler keeps Fuhrering until around the mid-60's, when he suffers a natural death. He's then succeeded by Bormann or Goering or Himmler or any of the rest of the inner circle, probably after some power struggle and after whoever comes on top has to make quite a few succession. But after a decade or two the second Fuhrer dies as well. My question is - what happens then? Do you think Nazi Germany can keep functioning as a state just as before, or will it collapse or somehow radically change? By this point, almost anyone who was prominent during the war is dead, meaning the Nazis have to foster a new generation for leadership, but personally the Nazi regime never seemed to me like a regime that can do that kind of thing. I think more likely is for a gerontocracy to develop a la many Eastern Bloc countries, with an antiquated, completely non-dynamic bureaucracy stifling any progress, eventually forcing the country to change the hard way. Also, there's probably no one with the necessary prestige to establish a position for themselves, seeing as how long has passed since the war.
Longevity of the Nazi empire?
- Thread starter Orko
- Start date
Speaking of the Eastern Bloc, a surviving Nazi Reich will most likely end around the same time the Eastern Bloc did: late eighties to early nineties. At least that what I think.
I feel like the life of a surviving Nazi Reich would be that of a short-lived prosperity off the back of a starving and war-torn Europe, and then a slow painful end as Nazi economics fail and war-plundering is no longer available. Ironically it is similar to the Soviet Union in OTL, with the 1980s being a time of protest and change in the German puppet states, like in the Eastern bloc in the 1980s, finally leading to the puppets becoming free in the early 1990s, and the German Reich reforming either by revolt or peaceful revolution into a German Republic.
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There are several issues that would eventually bring down the Third Reich (note: I'm assuming victory means that German territory stretches from the English Channel to the A-A Line):
1. The economy. The Nazi economy was based on looting and slave labor. Once they stop conquering they will start to run out of places to loot, and Generalplan Ost means that they will eventually kill off their slave laborers. At that point serious economic restructuring would be necessary to avoid an implosion, but I really doubt the Nazis are going to be able to pull that off, or even try.
2. Similarly, the Nazis would spend an absurd amount on the military. It would not be unreasonable to expect Nazi Germany to spend a similar amount as North Korea (IE 1/4th-1/3rd of total government spending). That's not sustainable in the long term, especially once the economy begins to fall apart. And Germany can't really lower this spending, both for ideological, political, and practical reasons.
3. The leadership vacuum that would emerge after Hitler. The Nazi state was built around competition. Various people and agencies were given similar jobs, the theory being that the strongest (and therefore best) would win. In practice however that meant that everyone hated each other and projects were derailed by conflict. The only thing keeping the top Nazis from going at each other was Hitler. Once he's dead there's a good chance that Germany falls into civil war or interminable rounds of coups and purges. Either way, the power and capacity of the government is going to be vastly weakened.
4. They'll probably go to war again at some point. The Nazis were cartoonishly belligerent (Hitler even declared that all the small nations of Europe must be eliminated), and given that their economy is built on war it makes sense for them to attack the British or the Americans at some point.
Honestly, I don't think the Nazis would last much past Hitler's death. Now, Hitler's only going to live to the 60s at most (he'd be 80 in 1969), and given that he may have had Parkinson's it could even be much earlier. So realistically the Nazis can last at most until sometime in the 1970s.
1. The economy. The Nazi economy was based on looting and slave labor. Once they stop conquering they will start to run out of places to loot, and Generalplan Ost means that they will eventually kill off their slave laborers. At that point serious economic restructuring would be necessary to avoid an implosion, but I really doubt the Nazis are going to be able to pull that off, or even try.
2. Similarly, the Nazis would spend an absurd amount on the military. It would not be unreasonable to expect Nazi Germany to spend a similar amount as North Korea (IE 1/4th-1/3rd of total government spending). That's not sustainable in the long term, especially once the economy begins to fall apart. And Germany can't really lower this spending, both for ideological, political, and practical reasons.
3. The leadership vacuum that would emerge after Hitler. The Nazi state was built around competition. Various people and agencies were given similar jobs, the theory being that the strongest (and therefore best) would win. In practice however that meant that everyone hated each other and projects were derailed by conflict. The only thing keeping the top Nazis from going at each other was Hitler. Once he's dead there's a good chance that Germany falls into civil war or interminable rounds of coups and purges. Either way, the power and capacity of the government is going to be vastly weakened.
4. They'll probably go to war again at some point. The Nazis were cartoonishly belligerent (Hitler even declared that all the small nations of Europe must be eliminated), and given that their economy is built on war it makes sense for them to attack the British or the Americans at some point.
Honestly, I don't think the Nazis would last much past Hitler's death. Now, Hitler's only going to live to the 60s at most (he'd be 80 in 1969), and given that he may have had Parkinson's it could even be much earlier. So realistically the Nazis can last at most until sometime in the 1970s.
It also depends on how total the Nazi victory is. If there’s a Cold War against the US going on there’s a very good chance the Reich won’t even make it halfway through the sixties. There’s a very solid chance the Nazis launch a Third World War and lose because they will inevitably lag behind any rival that doesn’t dismiss nuclear technology as “Jewish physics.”
FillyofDelphi
Banned
While I certainly think the Nazi state would have started to run into economic problems (Napoleon IV's post covers the fundimental flaws in their state model quite well; I don't know how much I can add on that front), but saying the Nazi state would have developed into a gerontocracy is a bit like predicting the collapse of the USA after the death of the Founding Fathers. Promising bureaucrats and stables of potential successors are likely to develop and/or be groomed under the various Nazi leadership, particularly after Hitler's death (Goering being his designated successor and hardly likely to try to micromanage affairs, individual leaders are going to be getting ALOT more autonomy and responsibility, leading to a more fully fleshed out bureaucracy), and as the existential pressures of continuous war/vulnerability on the international arena start to die down somewhat paranoia will likely dip somewhat (The Heer and other elements of the military are bound to be de-antiNazified at some point... if nothing else suspected disloyals pushed out to the peripheries or sent packing as the military is reorganized for occupation/pacification and partially demobalized from its peak, reducing the potential for a coup). Global events are still going to play out that will give new personalities time to establish reputations, as competent diplomats, wheelers and dealers between feuding factons in Berlin, efficient managers of the Reichscommisarates, ect.
Okay, so the main question is will Germany after Hitler go through some period of change but still fundamentally be intact like the Soviet Union after Stalin? Or will it simply fall apart like Yugoslavia after Tito? Or will it perhaps have been mutated into a more mainstream political system that the changes will be purely cosmetically like with Japan after the death of emperor Hirohito?
Manman
Banned
Honestly any timeline dealing with surviving nazi empire have to take a few things into consideration.
1. The nazis won't need a massive army but instead a massive airforce and navy. Unlike the soviets they don't have a land border with the allies. Also the occupation of former Russia would be easier considering thier willingness to kill anyone if they have to.
2. The rot that set it wouldn't be as bad considering that the main reason it got that way is do to the losing war. The leaders would be saner and more stable than when they were losing.
3. They have an advantage in that the allies only have a few areas to attack from. The only feasible way is to the British isles or from North Africa and both will likely be seen by the Germans. Also they are able to better defend from any bombers and missiles.
4. No scenario like Yugoslavia will happen or like the Soviet Union. The areas will either be ethnically cleansed or so controlled that if the nazis do fall they will keep Russia.
5. The lack of ideological purity other than the racial one allows a much larger way to change the economic system as needed.
6. The lack of border or contact between both allies and the axis will mean that people in the Reich will have less of an opportunity to become resentful about the nazis.
Overall while people say how nazi Germany will be another Soviet Union the reality is that they are vastly different in both ideology and how thier situation in the continent is vastly different.
1. The nazis won't need a massive army but instead a massive airforce and navy. Unlike the soviets they don't have a land border with the allies. Also the occupation of former Russia would be easier considering thier willingness to kill anyone if they have to.
2. The rot that set it wouldn't be as bad considering that the main reason it got that way is do to the losing war. The leaders would be saner and more stable than when they were losing.
3. They have an advantage in that the allies only have a few areas to attack from. The only feasible way is to the British isles or from North Africa and both will likely be seen by the Germans. Also they are able to better defend from any bombers and missiles.
4. No scenario like Yugoslavia will happen or like the Soviet Union. The areas will either be ethnically cleansed or so controlled that if the nazis do fall they will keep Russia.
5. The lack of ideological purity other than the racial one allows a much larger way to change the economic system as needed.
6. The lack of border or contact between both allies and the axis will mean that people in the Reich will have less of an opportunity to become resentful about the nazis.
Overall while people say how nazi Germany will be another Soviet Union the reality is that they are vastly different in both ideology and how thier situation in the continent is vastly different.