Long-term effects of an Islamic conquest of Southern Europe?

[vulpesvelox]

I've been really interested as of late in the Umayyad conquests and later Arab expansions across the Middle East during this period of time and one thing really kind of stuck and was something I found really kind of fascinating which was the siege of Constantinople by the Arabs. I thought of the idea of Islamic expansion into Europe and an almost Roman Empire of Islam type of thing where Islam is dominant in the South of Europe while the North is left to its own devices. This map is an example (u/Brooklyn_University made this) of what I'm talking about. So I have to wonder, with this map in question or the idea of Islamic expansion over most of Southern Europe, what would be the result of this long term for both the Islamic emirates that would form here, and the Franks/Europeans in the North?

 

[Nivek]

https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...former-roman-empire-becomes-romanized.431350/ some thoughts about the concept

 

[NewEnglish]

I'm sure one large effect would be the papacy. Would they stay in Rome or try to flee elsewhere, and if so, where?

 

[Rickdukulous Rex]

The nebulous category of Western Civilization is more Germanic, more northern focused. Proto-Capitalism developed In the Italian City States OTL and could still develop in Muslim lands or, disconnected from Northern European economic systems, could simply not develop. Modern banking could instead develop in England, the Low Countries, or maybe Scandinavia.

The Islamic world is much more interesting. Much more influence on Islamicate culture by Rome and Greece in the West. Deepens a divide between Persian inspired eastern Muslims and Roman inspired western Muslims.

I'm very skeptical of the OTL claim that Roman and Greek philosophy had any impact on the Scientific Revolution other than to retard its progress so I don't think the Islamic world invents science.

 

[Fulano]

Would they stay in Rome or try to flee elsewhere, and if so, where?

There is no way the Papacy as an institution will stay in Rome. They will probably flee to one of the most important Dioceses in the Empire, depending on when the Islamic invasion happens.

 

[Nivek]

There is no way the Papacy as an institution will stay in Rome. They will probably flee to one of the most important Dioceses in the Empire, depending on when the Islamic invasion happens.

What Dioceses remain? a new one in paris or london?

 

[ennobee]

There is no way the Papacy as an institution will stay in Rome. They will probably flee to one of the most important Dioceses in the Empire, depending on when the Islamic invasion happens.

Will there still be a papacy to start with? I could easily see the Catholic Church evolving into one with a different leadership in every country? May be even with regional dynasties combining faith, law AND military matters much like the Califs in neighbouring Islamic countries.

 

[Nik]

OTL, didn't the Islamists famously get to the walls of Vienna before being beaten back ??
In this ATL scenario, looks like they didn't stop until colliding with the Steppes' horse-clans

 

[Arariboia Guamá]

I'm not sure if the Arabs can expand beyond much beyond Constantinople. For starters, much of the old Eastern Roman Empire might not be onboard with the new domination at all. We might see one or multiple claimants to the Purple taking up arms to drive the infidel arabs, plus if the Roman Fleet still survives, it will present serious problems for the arabs.

There's also the matter of the Bulgars, who were around for the siege. I think its naive to assume they would not smell weakness in the over-extended Ummayads at the end of their logistical rope. Khan Tervel of Bulgaria (or his sucessor Kormesios, because it seems Tervel might have actually died by 715) might just see this as an opportunity to take the Purple by taking back Constantinople from the invading arabs - or helping whoever has the Purple now drive the arabs back and getting even more concessions.

And beyond the Bulgars, there's the Franks, who I cannot see simply tolerating this. Suddenly a frankish Translatio Imperii looks a lot more acceptable if the alternative is a bunch of heathen arabs, especially now that the Great Schism has not happened yet.

 

[Hastings]

There is no particular reason for Tours to be changed by this. Charles Martel is ruling Francia and competent. In terms of the Balkans, Bulgars didn't convert until 864 OTL. Muslims are going to have huge troubles expanding inland. East Thrace sure, but after that challenging. It is a long way from the Umayyad center of power. Bulgars may well eventually convert to Islam, but quite possible they don't. They already have significant Orthodox populations and being Orthodox will help legitimize ruling over Greek populations and pushing toward Constantinople. In terms of Italy, wasn't OTL major priority and Sicily proved tough morsal. Good odds it isn't captured and never really was a focus except for the North Africans. The thing is realistically it is just such a big empire, even bigger ATL (This conquest will rapidly add Islamified Greeks in Anatolia/Thrace to the interest group mess that was the Umayyad Empire), that it will always be very vulnerable to centrifugal forces and eventually fail to beat them. Russians may well eventually become Muslim. Hungarians and Poles however, tended more westward in focus OTL. The reason they are Catholic and not Orthodox in the first place. Christian Europe will be much smaller, but I think knocking out the heart of of Catholic Europe is unlikely, even if Rome falls. Orthodox lands will be greatly diminished, but Catholic (of course not really a thing yet) will be fine and probably get most of their later conversions.

 

[athgtq16129]

OTL, didn't the Islamists famously get to the walls of Vienna before being beaten back ??

Quick nitpick, but the word you are looking for is simply Muslims or the Caliphate, the term "Islamism" wasn't invented until around the 17th century, and didn't become popular until the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran.