I couldn't decide on which scenario I liked best - so I made three.
Magic Circle Unbroken
1963-1964: Reggie Maudling (Conservative)
1964-1965: Harold Wilson (Labour minority with supply and confidence from Liberals)
1964 def. Reggie Maudling (Conservative) Jo Grimond (Liberal)
1965-1969: Harold Wilson (Labour)
1965 def. Reggie Maudling (Conservative) Jo Grimond (Liberal)
1969-1972: Quintin Hogg (Conservative)
1969 def. Harold Wilson (Labour) Jeremy Thorpe (Liberal)
1972-1979: Richard Wood (Conservative)
1974 def. Harold Wilson (Labour) Jeremy Thorpe (Liberal)
1979-: Paul Channon (Conservative)
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The Chancellor of the Exchequer successfully schemed his way past many several senior politicians to get the support of the Conservative Party - but as much as Maudling stalled for time he could not save his party's fortunes - Wilson narrowly picked up the most seats in a hung parliament. After almost a year of uneasy coalition government Wilson decided to call a new election - and this time the electorate decisively swung against Maudling, giving Labour a large majority and clear mandate. Maudling had performed disappointingly in both elections - and stepped down as leader.
There was just as much of a leadership vacuum as there had been two years ago - Ted Heath, who had been seen as a rising star the previous year - had lost Bexley in 1965 by three hundred votes - a personal embarassment in the wake of the overall Conservative defeat. Rab Butler had just stepped down and Macmillan was not about to return to power, glorious dreams to the contrary. In the end, Shadow Home Secretary Quintin Hogg (his glory-seeking antics of 2 years before forgotten) was the pick of the Tory Grandees - beating out Peter Thorneycroft, while some rumored absurdly that the 14th Earl of Home had also been a contender. A second viscount was an incongruous choice for Conservative leader in the years of Wilson - but he was an effective speaker, and when Labour underperformed in 1969 - that would be enough for Hogg to win a usable majority. There were some Conservative reforms - but Hogg ended up preoccupied with the Troubles and labour unrest, and would resign a tired man in 1972. And once again, the 'Magic Circle' stepped in - picking Foreign Secretary Richard Wood over a bitter Keith Joseph. Wood was a fellow Etonian and the son of the 1st Earl of Halifax - but as a bitter Harold Wilson would learn, he was also Teflon. Labour attacks on 'inherited privilege' came off as simply callous against a double amputee who had served in World War 2 - and Wood had earned both the respect and the unity of the Conservative Party, even in hard economic times. Labour lost seats in 1974 - and Wilson stepped down, to be replaced by Michael Foot. Foot himself had a dispiriting four years trying to pin the nation's economic woes on the Conservatives, to little avail. His first break came in 1979 - when Wood suddenly resigned due to ill-health, and yet another Etonian emerged - young Paul Channon, who had served twenty years in Parliament - but been first elected at only 23. Channon paled in comparison to his predecessors - and a decline in the polls showed it. It looked like the days of aristocratic Tories would soon come to an end...
Rivers of not always going to be a dystopia how hard is that to understand
1963-1964: Reggie Maudling (Conservative)
1964-1965: Harold Wilson (Labour minority with supply and confidence from Liberals)
1964 def. Reggie Maudling (Conservative), Jo Grimond (Liberal)
1965-1970: Harold Wilson (Labour)
1965 def. Reggie Maudling (Conservative), Jo Grimond (Liberal)
1970-1972: Enoch Powell (Conservative)
1970 def. Harold Wilson (Labour), Jeremy Thorpe (Liberal)
1972-1976: Harold Wilson (Labour)
1972 def. Enoch Powell (Conservative), Jeremy Thorpe (Liberal), Ted Heath (Independent Conservative)
1976-1977: James Callaghan (Labour)
1977-1977: James Callaghan (Labour with supply and confidence from Liberals)
1977 (Jun) def. Neil Marten (Conservative), Frederick Rodger (Liberal), Kenneth Baker (Independent Conservative)
1977-1982: Neil Marten (Conservative)
1977 (Nov) def. James Callaghan (Labour), Frederick Rodger (Liberal), Mark Carlisle (Independent Conservative)
1981 def. John Silkin (Labour), Frederick Rodger (Liberal)
1982-: Timothy Raison (Conservative)
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Maudling failed twice as already related - and when the 14th Earl of Home was picked seemingly out of nowhere to be the next leader of the Conservative Party, many were aghast. Even his subsequent disclaiming of the earldom and election as MP for Hove could not make him seem less alien to most of the nation. He was elitist, not dynamic, and simply came across as a lesser light even when party leader. It is to his partial credit that Douglas-Home at least saw these shortcomings and tried to do something about them. His decision was to institute democratic Conservative leadership elections for the first time - doing away with the Magic Circle and replacing it with the vote of MPs - alongside the choices of Conservative voters at large. As a show of good faith - Douglas-Home himself would stand for reselection as leader in early 1968; in part as a good PR move, but the decision was also based on the relatively weak Conservative leadership.
In fact there would only be two serious challengers; Shadow Chancellor Iain MacLeod and Shadow Secretary of State for Defense Enoch Powell. Both were younger, more charismatic critics of Home - even if coming from different political directions. Powell had the right-most core of the party it seemed, while MacLeod was the 'electable' alternative to Home, who could present a more charismatic Conservative Party. All the smart money thought that Douglas-Home, already in charge, would have the backing of a large plurality of MPs - followed by MacLeod in second and Powell in a distant third. MacLeod would then presumably beat Douglas-Home among Conservative voters at large. The presumptive phrase here would be "wrong". Powell snatched second-place by two votes in a shock to MacLeod - in a textbook case of tactical voting; MPs in favor of Douglas-Home were convinced that Iain MacLeod would be a tougher opponent and had therefore discreetly swung their votes to Powell.
They would come to repent their decision, for Powell was an excellent orator above all and the speech he delivered during that leadership contest would never be forgotten. 'Rivers of Blood' was widely condemned in the media as racialist and horrid - but in the public at large Powell received overwhelming acclaim for sympathizing with their feelings of concern about mass immigration. And when it finally came to a popular vote, Powell beat Douglas-Home by 61.89 to 38.11% to become leader of the Conservative Party. Conservative MPs were rather less thrilled. But Powell had other priorities in his first year as leader - coming up with an economic plan that would significantly cut taxes, and offering a defense of the House of Lords that completely blunted Prime Minister's Wilson's efforts at reform.
Harold Wilson rather desperately looked for a drop in Powell's popularity as Parliament came to an end; but there was none. The beginnings of dissent were emerging from Ted Heath (MP for New Forest since late 1968) who had a sizable Europhile following that looked anxiously at Powell's economic policies. But although the canny Wilson tried to make 1970 an informal referendum on whether to join the EEC - Powell held his party together and won a forty seat majority, slightly underperforming the polls.
Powell's premiership itself would be - anticlimactic. Conservative MPs had no stomach for many of the things he was proposing - and his positions on NI and entering Europe were considerably out of line with the rest of his party, which was rather resenting the burden the electorate had forced on it. The final straw would come from Rhodesia - Powell continued to push for the Pearce Commission's plan despite the black citizens in Rhodesia widely disapproving of it; with even the foreign service reluctant to back him up on that decision. Ted Heath and a wild variety of fellow wets ended up defecting under the 'Independent Conservative' banner - and the Powell government collapsed. Wilson won handily - and the brief experiment with Powellism came to an end. Although Shadow Chancellor Neil Marten shared Powell's distaste for the E.U. - his first priority was reconciling with moderates in the party, and at his resignation in 1982 Timothy Raison would finally put the Powell wing of the party to bed.
Partycrasher Thatcher
1963-1969: Alec Douglas-Home (Conservative)
1964: Hugh Gaitskell (Labour), Jo Grimond (Liberal)
1969-1969: Iain MacLeod (Conservative)†
1969-1969: Peter Thorneycroft (Conservative)
1968-1969: Margaret Thatcher (Conservative)
1969-: Hugh Gaitskell (Labour)
1969: Margaret Thatcher (Conservative), Jo Grimond (Liberal)
Partycrasher Thatcher (Comisario was quite right about John Smith - so I made this.)
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Even in her twenties there had been chatter about her becoming the first female Prime Minister. That talk had only intensified when she'd been a successful Health minister under Douglas-Home, and even more so when Iain MacLeod's first (and only) reshuffling had very surprisingly made her Secretary of State for Defense. And when MacLeod had died suddenly one morning from the stress of preparing for the election campaign - a shocked Peter Thorneycroft was appointing her to fill his spot as Home Secretary (while Quintin Hogg became the new Deputy Prime Minister in his stead) - and not so discreetly hinting that he would back her if she ran. After all, who else was there?
Ted Heath was still off being the Incredible Sulk after losing the last leadership contest - and Maudling was a two time loser and not exactly scandal-free. That left Soames - and who wanted another elitist when the country was well and tired of Douglas-Home? So she'd squeaked by to a win on the second ballot. She'd become the first female Prime Minister. And for all that, she was about to leave 10 Downing St. after what could only be described as a sickening, massive loss to Labour. Maybe if the Conservatives hadn't been in power so long - maybe if she had worked on her voice more - but no, none of that mattered now.
Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher sighed. It was Hugh Gaitskell's job now.