Li Zicheng strikes South: Two Chinas in 1644?

[maverick]

Chinese Rebel leader Li Zicheng, who IOTL led a rebellion in the western provinces during the years of the lateMing Dynasty and established the short-lived Shun Dynasty in 1644, controlling the provinces of Shanxi, Shaanxi, Hebei and the capital of Beijing, before the Manch invaded in 1644 and established the Qing Dynasty.

But what if instead of occupying Beijing in April of 1644, Li Zicheng had turned south towards Jiangnan and the southern Ming Capital of Nanjing?

Li Zicheng controlled Henan and Hubei in 1643 and the choice was between Nanking and Beijing, so he eventually went with Beijing...but what if?

Let's say that he could have conquered Nanjing and established the Shun Dynasty in Southern China...what happens next?

IOTL, the Manchu were able to invade because General Wu Sangui opened their way through the Shanhaiguan pass, which Wu controlled, having defected to the Manchu following the fall of the Ming and a little issue with Li Zicheng because Wu was too slow to join him, so Li sacked his properties.

ITTL, if Li Zicheng can conquer Nanjing, the war continues and there's a chance that the Manchu are unable to invade...or do they seize the opportunity and try a new crossing of the Shanhaiguan pass even without the downfall of Beijing to the Shun?

 

[Thande]

I hate to see a potentially interesting thread with 30 views and no responses, so I am going to post even though I have little to contribute just to show willing.

Wu Sangui was something of an inveterate backstabber...

 

[Ofaloaf]

Wu Sangui was something of an inveterate backstabber...

The choice was between some gallivanting warlord or a group of nomadic peoples he had been in contact with since he began garrison duty. Wu Sangui's problem was that he even bothered briefly siding with Li Zicheng when he should've just sided with the Manchurians from the get-go and spared himself all that extra trouble.

That being said, for Li Zicheng to head south and establish a Southern Shun dynasty, he'd have to wipe the Southern Ming who were already in the neighborhood and busy consolidating power. Tricky.

Far more interesting would be a "three Chinas" scenario: a northern Qing, a southern Ming, and an inland Shun centered around Xi'an, which Li Zicheng apparently fancied if I've got my facts right. It's not likely that a three-way power split could last very long before one side or another collapsed, but it'd still make for a cool story.

 

[Stateless]

It is a very interesting thread. Sadly early modern China is not an area I am particularly well-versed in, owing to the vagaries of a western education, but luckily that does mean I am very interested in finding out more from this thread! Given the little reading I've done (!), didn't Li chose Beijing because he felt Ming was weaker there than Nanjing (as Ofaloaf has suggested)? So perhaps he has a far tougher time defeating them and is ultimately unsuccessful (and modern AH.commers ask WI Li had gone North)?

 

[Hendryk]

Far more interesting would be a "three Chinas" scenario: a northern Qing, a southern Ming, and an inland Shun centered around Xi'an, which Li Zicheng apparently fancied if I've got my facts right. It's not likely that a three-way power split could last very long before one side or another collapsed, but it'd still make for a cool story.

That would have recreated the situation of the Three Kingdoms era, but with the difference that by the 17th century, the demographic and economic center of gravity of China had moved noticeably to the south.

 

[maverick]

As far as I could tell, the Southern Ming post-fall of Beijing were practically a confederation of warlords glued by Shi Kefa and the Prince Fu, so in a way, if the Ming are less capable of keeping their forces cohesive, we might see Southern China+Sichuan(remember Zhang Xongxhian) turn into warlord-land.

I don't know how strong is Nanjing itself.

Li Zicheng had over 100,000 or 200,000 men, but it was a poorly disciplined and barely cohesive "army" and Beijing fell due to a combination of Eunuch corruption, hunger and massive incompetence, and I wouldn't know if those circumstances are present at Nanjing as they were at Xi'an, Kaifeng and Beijing IOTL.

Wu Sangui's problem was that he even bothered briefly siding with Li Zicheng when he should've just sided with the Manchurians from the get-go and spared himself all that extra trouble.

From what I could tell, he got a letter and money from Li Zicheng, but took too long to repply, so Li Zicheng had Wu's house sacked just as he was riding with his army towards Beijing, and when he heard of that, he turned north and decided to side with the Manchu.

The ITTL situation depends on Wu deciding whether he betrays the Ming even if Beijing has not fallen and the Mandate of Heaven not lost.

 

[Faeelin]

As far as I could tell, the Southern Ming post-fall of Beijing were practically a confederation of warlords glued by Shi Kefa and the Prince Fu, so in a way, if the Ming are less capable of keeping their forces cohesive, we might see Southern China+Sichuan(remember Zhang Xongxhian) turn into warlord-land.

I don't see how Li does any better, though. Nanjing itself fell pretty quickly to the Qing in OTL, so what will really change?

Wu still has an army in the north, and if the southern capital falls, he will feel threatened to go take it.

I think to get a "southern" state you need something more.