Latest Successful Southern Secession (ACW)

[Kevin C. Smith]

I recall being taught in history class that the Compromise of 1850 bought the United States enough time to develop sufficient industry and population that the Confederacy would surely be defeated when the American Civil War broke out a decade later. I have always wondered what would have happened if secession (similar to OTL's states) had occurred at that time, instead. Assuming a Union administration just as committed to preserving the union, does an 1850 secession succeed?

Whether that particular year works or not, what do you believe would be the latest time that a secession of southern states (at least 7-8 of them) could plausibly occur?

Are there any good existing threads someone could point me to?

 

[jahenders]

I couldn't point to a specific date, but I think that, in general, earlier points would have been more likely to succeed. 1846-1855 might be a good target range because the "Northern Advantage" isn't as great, but Texas has been made a state, etc. Among other things, in an ACW in that timeframe you might not get much in the way of steam gunboats -- a big advantage for the Union.

 

[deathscompanion1]

I couldn't point to a specific date, but I think that, in general, earlier points would have been more likely to succeed. 1846-1855 might be a good target range because the "Northern Advantage" isn't as great, but Texas has been made a state, etc. Among other things, in an ACW in that timeframe you might not get much in the way of steam gunboats -- a big advantage for the Union.

On the other hand you have Andrew Jackson and other Southerners more than happy to hang the traitors from a tree. The divisions between North and South werent fully there yet.

 

[iddt3]

On the other hand you have Andrew Jackson and other Southerners more than happy to hang the traitors from a tree. The divisions between North and South werent fully there yet.

Indeed, the South spent a generation building the ideology that would underpin succession; if the South tries earlier, it's likely the Deep South alone, or even just South Carolina.