Late nuclear bomb

[brunosouzzxx]

What if the development of the nuclear bomb is delayed by around one year? How would the Pacific theater play out? Would Japan still be fighting in August 1946?

 

[Lalli]

Japan actually would surrend around same time as in OTL or little later. One big factor was fear of Soviet invasion to Hokkaido. So nuclear bomb delaying with one year might not change that much. And even if USA still has launch Operation Downfall Japan would still surrend in months so it would surrend already in August 1946.

 

[raharris1973]

What if the development of the nuclear bomb is delayed by around one year? How would the Pacific theater play out? Would Japan still be fighting in August 1946?

For the question in bold print: Only "fighting" on islands the Allied forces had chosen to bypass and bomb and blockade instead of directly invade to force surrender.

The Japanese would have been finished completely on the mainland, due to a year's worth of additional fighting there with Soviet forces, British Empire forces, Chinese forces (both kinds), possibly augmented by Americans. That's if we're going off of conventional narratives of the strength of the Soviet August Storm offensive. Which, if it succeeded like OTL, but was not enough to convince Japan to surrender without the bomb, could just be repeated every couple months, at points further south in Korea and China to devour the IJA, while the Chinese pick up stragglers. The Brits were getting back to Malaya and Singapore and crossed into Thailand from Burma.

The only way I could imagine Japanese still holding out on the mainland in August 1946 would be if the assertion of the Soviet ops being more administrative than blitzkrieg, as asserted here are true:

https://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:794584/FULLTEXT01.pdf
Just posting some excerpts from this

TL: DR:
>be shitter Japanese units
>filled with chinese and manchu conscripts
> barely any equipment
>face off against battle hardened Red Army divisions
>absolutely bitchslap them and force them to retreat
>only surrender because High Command are cowards who can't find a way out conditionally and the Emperor tells you to stop

 

[raharris1973]

One big factor was fear of Soviet invasion to Hokkaido.

Why could the Soviets pull off an invasion of Hokkaido before the Americans could do one of Kyushu?

Because the Soviets don't care about sacrificing all their forces on the first couple tries?

 

[Lalli]

Why could the Soviets pull off an invasion of Hokkaido before the Americans could do one of Kyushu?

Because the Soviets don't care about sacrificing all their forces on the first couple tries?

I didn't say that they actually would had but Japanese leadership might be worried such thing.

 

[Sekhmet_D]

Why could the Soviets pull off an invasion of Hokkaido before the Americans could do one of Kyushu?

Because the Soviets don't care about sacrificing all their forces on the first couple tries?

Pretty much, and also because Hokkaido was very lightly defended. The Hokkaido cupboard was practically stripped bare to stock up Kyushu.

 

[brunosouzzxx]

With Japan surrendering without a bomb, how would this affect how the world sees it's development? It would probably still be made and tested, but without the large scale deaths would it be seem as such a threat?

 

[Lalli]

With Japan surrendering without a bomb, how would this affect how the world sees it's development? It would probably still be made and tested, but without the large scale deaths would it be seem as such a threat?

Probably it woudn't be seen such threat altough eventually risks are realised since it would be noticed how dangerous radiation would be. And you can pretty quickly make calculations how effective nuclear weapons are. But probably these would are used later, perhaps on Korean War if it is not butterflied away.

 

[Nik]

Between the US naval blockade starving populace to Nork-extremis, and daily USAF fire-bomb raids progressively razing the remaining cities then the larger towns, literally only the centre of Tokyo would be left standing. Don't forget the RAF were planning to contribute their skills with TallBoy and GrandSlam mega-bombs...

I've never heard even a hint of plans to 'earthquake-bomb' Mt Fuji, though I suspect this would merely rile the locals, rather than terrify them as lesser USAF raids on Mt Vesuvius did for the Italians. And besides, unlike grumbling Vesuvius, Mt Fuji seems to be 'historically' dormant...
Mind you, if news had got out about those jet-stream riding incendiary balloons, and the elNino/laNina phase had allowed vast Pacific-coast forest fires, Fuji might have been hammered in revenge...