I was just thinking you'd need a very large increase over OTL to get a population of a million plus after the impact of disease. OTL population densities were fairly low, with most of New Zealand not that great for the Polynesian food package. I've seen numbers in the 100,000-200,000 range for the pre-Cook and co. era.
Lands of Red and Gold, Act II
- Thread starter Jared
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I was just thinking you'd need a very large increase over OTL to get a population of a million plus after the impact of disease. OTL population densities were fairly low, with most of New Zealand not that great for the Polynesian food package. I've seen numbers in the 100,000-200,000 range for the pre-Cook and co. era.
Gracias.
Well put. That said, as with anything involving the Gunnagal, the situation is rather complex.
It is quite true that in a metaphorical sense, Gunnagal would quite happily backstab anyone if they thought it gave them a bigger advantage. Where it gets more complex, though, is that Gunnagal operate within a set of unwritten, but nevertheless quite real rules. Gunnagal do not assassinate each other, at least not if they think there's any risk of getting caught. Or even if they think there's a significant risk of getting blamed, even if no-one can prove it.
The reasons for this are far more pragmatic than they are ethical. Gunnagal have been playing the Endless Dance for centuries. If they start encouraging assassinations, well, anyone can be assassinated. There's no enjoyment or even lasting gains in the Endless Dance if it ends with the death of too many of the participants. So the unwritten rule evolved into "Thou shalt not kill thy foe by assassination." People who are suspected of breaking that rule tend to find that it brings everyone against them, and that can be very, very bad. (As an aside, there are occasionally open squabbles between factions, although these are exceedingly rare nowadays. But an open squabble is seen as better than a knife in the dark, simply because it isn't going to risk starting the same trend of everyone getting stabbed in the dark).
More broadly, within their own system the Gunnagal have evolved their own code which is in some ways the opposite of Machiavellian (despite some surface similarities). Machiavelli said to never to give a person a small injury. The Gunnagal system is the opposite: try not to do an enemy a large injury unless absolutely necessary. Their social system expects that some people will change sides regularly. It's just part of the game. Any switch will involve some negative consequences on your former allies - but that doesn't mean that you will never want to deal with them again. So you try to make it so that your betrayal of them is not so bad that they will refuse to deal with you or try to take vengeance for the sake of it.
When it comes to dealing with non-Gunnagal, the rules were less strict, but nevertheless still relevant. Despite centuries of warfare with the Yadji, Gutjanal and Yigutji, no Gunnagal has ever sponsored the assassination of any of their reigning monarchs. Or for several centuries, any of their high-ranking officials. (There was an occasion about 300 years ago where that rule was broken for a high-ranking Yigutji official, leading to Unfortunate Consequences.) And despite the legendary reputation of the Gunnagal for switching sides, it was extremely rare for them to break an existing alliance with a reigning monarch of the other Five Rivers states (though not entirely unknown, if they saw a really big advantage or had good grounds for expecting to be betrayed themselves). The more common practice was to declare an alliance with an existing monarch and stick to it as long as that monarch lived. Their alliance was thus with the monarch rather than the state. When the monarch died, of course, all alliances were up for reconsideration.
Things have changed with the Hunter because he was a circuit-breaker in more ways than one. He wasn't just a circuit-breaker for the eastern parts of Aururia, he was also a circuit-breaker in how the Gunnagal saw the world. They perceived him as outside the existing rules, and also introduced a sense of extreme fear that they could lose everything, simply because the Hunter would break the Dance, not join the Dance. So the Gunnagal, or rather some of them, were willing to take an extreme and open step, risking the furore that it would cause amongst the Dominion forces, simply because they believed that they had no real alternative.
The murder of Puckapunyal came in the environment where they continue to be afraid and still haven't settled down. Though Gurragang would never say it explicitly - he is a Gunnagal, after all - there was a strong fear that the world was still unsettled and that things could go seriously wrong. Yigutji was in chaos with the Dominion withdrawing, and it could turn into anything - Gutjanal might use him, or he might become a pawn in the struggles between competing Warego, or worse an excuse for the English or other Europeans to exert influence if they came in via former Port Percy (*Sydney). In that environment, there was too much concern that things could blow up and that Puckapunyal could become a tool of someone. So Gurragang decided that the only safe option was to remove the threat.
Or, for a much shorter version: Gunnagal betray each other (and other non-Gunnagal) quite happily. But the open results leading to death (the Hunter and Puckapunyal) were not the norm, but the result of a sense of extreme desperation where they would not normally go so far.
Whether the Gunnagal settle down again from this situation remains to be seen, of course.
... It is now.
Nice map.
In terms of the way the Kiyungu and Daluming stayed with the Warego, the main comparison I had in mind was how revolts were relatively rare with the Diadochi after Alexander's death, but the Persians staying with the Abbasids is also a good analogy.
Yes, the new king is of the same royal family. The Murrginhi royal family mostly survived unmolested because the Hunter's way was not to wipe out existing non-ruling nobility unless they actually intrigued against him. In terms of Murrginhi's relationship with Europeans (and Tjibarr, and the Nuttana, and the surviving Dominion), it's worth pointing out that pre-Hunter Murrginhi was not really influenced by any of its neighbours. Their attitude of "we just don't make lasting deals with anyone", plus some luck beating off a couple of proxy invasions, meant that they'd survived largely intact. With their rule of "we don't deal with outsiders" now broken, it's an open question who they're going to end up cutting a deal with. They need some form of backing from outside to keep them safe from the Dominion, but does that best come from the English, the Dutch, the Nuttana or Tjibarr?
The Tjibarri will be doing their utmost to integrate Yigutji into the existing colour factions. The reason for this is that they really, really won't want a sense of separatism to develop, and having a faction located only in part of former Yigutji is just begging for that to happen. A possibility, though, could be that part of an existing faction in old Tjibarr break away to form a new faction which integrates some former Yigutjians into that faction.
Without going into a yes or no answer for that yet (naturally), the Yadji are going to be part of another upcoming sequence of posts. That will look at the consequences of the situation in the Yadji realm (the religious discontent, the attempt to plan for external conquest, and a few other matters) and cover both them and some of their neighbours. I will probably include here the Tiyanjara post which I've half-finished which gives a general look at how Tiyanjara has developed since declaring effective independence.
Scribbles notes furiously for a new holiday special post...
Yes, at least for the medium term the Dominion has reduced but stable borders (in the former agricultural regions), and will probably go on a land grab in the less agricultural regions (as will several other states, come to that). Whether there will be a Timur-equivalent is still an open question, of course, but I'd also note that firearms technology is moving on. In OTL the steppe nomad empires started running into problems once agricultural societies started getting their hands on mass gunpowder. Firearms are spreading rapidly in Aururia in both numbers and quality. This makes it harder for the kind of "cavalry uber alles" conquests to happen. That doesn't rule out a kind of Timur-analogue, of course, but it would be more of a "military genius with combined arms" than cavalry being their greatest advantage.
That part wasn't meant to be obtuse. It's an ATL reference to a classic ATL poem which divides the (urbanised) parts of pre-contact Aururia into seven states, and was quoted in post #97:
“Seven pearls strung along a necklace of gold
Shining afar in the red land e’er-old
Jewels unknown beyond the girting seas
‘Til pale men sailed in on fallen trees
Name all the pearls, you who have ears to hear
Spinners of words, who argue but ne’er fear [Tjibarr/Gunnagal]
Hoarders of severed heads and brilliant glass [Bungudjimay/Daluming]
Weavers of gold, obsessed with doom and class [Yadji/Durigal]
People of the skin, those who look within [Patjimunra]
Stalwarts true, care for aught but kith and kin [Yigutji]
Mavens fickle, who dwell ‘midst fire and flood [Gutjanal]
Lords of the beard, bringers of knives and blood. [Atjuntja]
Ruined by plague and war, the necklace burst
Pearls cast asunder, the lords shattered first...”
From Tjanja Concord Pindeera’s epic poem Euchambie, published 1927
As an aside, what I thought was more of a tease was that in response to earlier questions in this thread, I said that by the end of the Hunter sequence it would be possible for readers to make a very informed guess about what's going on with Clements and his story. We've reached the end of the Hunter sequence, and that point still stands.
That post is the end of the Hunter sequence, because I thought that was a good way to end that self-contained story arc. So there won't be further chapters coming until I've written a new sequence. I do plan to start releasing chapters in batches (except perhaps for occasional holiday special posts), though most of these sequences will probably be shorter than the Hunter sequence.
My general plan for the next couple of sequences is as follows:
- First sequence is a series of matched travelogues written by an English visitor to Aururia, mostly but not entirely set in Tjibarr, matched with one written by a Tjibarri visitor to Europe
- Second sequence (as referenced above) is set in Durigal, *Tasmania, and neighbouring parts of southern Aururia
After that, I plan to move on to the buildup and then depiction of the Nine Years' War (Aururian front), but I haven't yet decided whether that will be one or several sequences.
As another aside, the Hunter sequence (from posts #113-#123) was mostly written a couple of years ago, but I added two chapters that were written while publishing the rest, based on reader comments that happened in between. Can anyone guess which those two chapters are?
A series of land claims from Tjibarr and the Dominion (and possibly others) is likely to follow over the next few decades, barring the effects of any further European disruption.
The question about conducting trade on equal terms is an interesting one, because that links to the broader question of where to from here for the European trading companies. We're not yet done with seeing their reactions to the rise of the Dominion, but since that plays out over a couple of decades I left that out of the wrapping-up post for the Hunter sequence. It will be covered in separate sequences.
In terms of sailing technology, the Nuttana are already using the clipper route, though not clipper ships as such, so they can already travel pretty quickly between Europe and Aururia. The Europeans will no doubt catch up to this soon enough. What I'm trying to figure out more of now is what European-made goods will actually be highly-desired in Aururia, since that affects which way the trade routes flow.
What happens with the Yadji will be covered in a new sequence of posts (as per above). I can say that while the Harmony Battalion will end up in Aururia, that's not for a few decades yet. Malligo is unlikely to be alive by the time that happens. (Whether he dies of natural causes or has an assisted death will be covered eventually.)
The Aururian food package was introduced early to Aotearoa (1310s-1330s) and turned out to be much more well-suited to their climate than the OTL Polynesian food package, since the latter barely grew in NZ in most cases. Aotearoa experienced a very large population boom as a result, which indeed was still growing at the point of European contact since they were continuing to produce food surpluses.
As with most population figures, I have a range rather than an exact figure, but the pre-European disease population of Aotearoa was in the range of 3-4 million. Their population will bottom out somewhere in the 1-1.5 million range.
The Nuttana are still alive and still have all of their naval power, though their trade markets are getting disrupted. They will need to reorient themselves in various ways (which I'll get to covering at some point). In general they remain major players in Aotearoa, but the spice component of their trade has been significantly reduced since they are cut off from most of the Aururian east coast spice markets.
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Do the European companies (or even governments) even have the power projection capabilities to make a serious bid at colonising Aururia in this TL? Given the more advanced and numerous (even after the plagues) natives.
I like the idea that the Nuttana have ships capable of reaching Europe. I'm guessing they have victualling stations/trading posts along the African coast. But have any Nuttana settled in Europe, or served on European ships? And what about Europeans serving on Nuttana vessels? Do the Nuttana have diplomats in Europe's capitals/courts?
As for the chapter concerning a Tjibarri visiting Europe please call it A Gunnagal in Paris
I like the idea that the Nuttana have ships capable of reaching Europe. I'm guessing they have victualling stations/trading posts along the African coast. But have any Nuttana settled in Europe, or served on European ships? And what about Europeans serving on Nuttana vessels? Do the Nuttana have diplomats in Europe's capitals/courts?
As for the chapter concerning a Tjibarri visiting Europe please call it A Gunnagal in Paris
That's Tjibarr for you: assembling an empire, out of self-defense...
As before, I'm guessing that one of these landgrabs will be the Panjimundra lands north of the Lachlan, along the borders with Murrginhi and the Dominion. But since they already have an outpost in the Coober Pedy area, I wonder if they'll be tempted to go further west? The Dutch will probably stop them though-- they don't want the Tjibarri Self-Defense Sphere to start encircling Mutjing.
EDIT: Wait a damn minute. Nangu Island is pretty close to Tjibarr, isn't it? It's only a shadow of its former self, but strategically important for the South Sea routes all the same. And with its position just off the coast, it might as well be the Taiwan to Tjibarr's China...
Before, the Yadji were able to keep them contained, tied up in constant feuding over the Copper Coast. Failing that, Yigutji and Gutjanal put up a good fight. But a Tjibarr that's had a taste of real expansion (already we've seen the factions hungering for new lands) and wants more, and is convinced it deserves more due to the superiority of its social order... is going to be wild. Even discounting their technological and diplomatic expertise, they were able to put up an army bigger than the Dominion's.
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I am glad that Tjibarr survived, less glad that the Yadji still rule Durigal. I do wonder if the situation for Gutjunal is better or worse with the partition... more territory but is it better to be 3rd out of 4 or 3rd out of 3?
Keen for this, and to ask the dreaded question, any ETAs yet?
Keen for this, and to ask the dreaded question, any ETAs yet?
Huh, well it’s an honor to have my random quote become canon.
I wonder how large the Aururian elephants can grow to be, as they face no natural predator in Aururia. I can see them growing as large as their Asian cousins, but I doubt we’ll ever see them used in combat once gunpowder truly does begin spreading, and their low population.
Leave the Italians alone, they’ll mutiny against themselves if they ever face any struggle.
I wonder how large the Aururian elephants can grow to be, as they face no natural predator in Aururia. I can see them growing as large as their Asian cousins, but I doubt we’ll ever see them used in combat once gunpowder truly does begin spreading, and their low population.
Depends on a variety of factors, but certainly potentially yes. The Dutch in particular already have a well-established presence in Tiayal/Teegal, which can be used as a base for power projection elsewhere. The English have a presence in Durigal which they could lever into something more. They would also be helped by division or warfare between Aururian states.
In terms of comparisons, think of the history of European conquest in India. European armies had only a limited military advantage over Indian armies - basically better infantry discipline - and no population advantage, but they still managed to conquer most of India. This did involve a couple of lucky breaks at time, but mostly it was because European control started small and expanded gradually. Aururia is not united, and has a far smaller population than India, so potentially Europeans could do something similar there. They already have toeholds near most of it, after all.
On the other hand, European colonial control is by no means guaranteed, either.
The Nuttana have one or two victualling stations in various places, but mostly they just use resupply stations from friendly European powers. They get on well with various European powers - the particular ones change over time - and so can usually get somewhere to resupply.
There's been a handful of Nuttana in Europe, mostly in London and Amsterdam since they basically act as agents and brokers for Nuttana trade, but not really any long-lasting settlement. I imagine a handful of Nuttana have served on European ships at some point, but it's not that common since they usually think it's more harmonious to serve under a Plirite captain. More Europeans have gone the other way and joined the Nuttana permanently, but even those are still only a few.
The Nuttana don't have emissaries to European courts/capitals as such, but their residents in London and Amsterdam (and to a lesser degree elsewhere) often make deals with the various trading companies, rather than with the country's leadership.
The Gunnagal word Werriwul means "visitor, traveller, wanderer", so I'm tempted to go with a chapter called A Gunnagal Werriwul in Paris.As for the chapter concerning a Tjibarri visiting Europe please call it A Gunnagal in Paris
Pre-emptive self-defence.
The main areas I was thinking of for expansion were into the outback, where both the Dominion and Tjibarr can claim extensive lands without upsetting other states, so *Coober Pedy and places like it. (Yes, there are peoples already there, but unfortunately agricultural people in Aururia usually look down on those are aren't agriculturalists.) That doesn't mean they won't look to expand elsewhere as well, of course, but when it comes to "filling in the map", it's the lightly-settled areas they will be looking to first. So Tjibarr will look along the *Darling and that corridor, together with some outposts further west, and to a lesser degree the thinly-populated lands on the way to Murrginhi.
For context, in OTL, while the effects of European diseases would be catastrophic, they didn't hit all ages equally. The survivors tended to be disproportionately young adults. This meant that the post-disease population rebounded very quickly (since these were the ages to have children), with population growth rates of 4% a year being common. Of course, often the survivors were hit by another epidemic a few years later, but still, population recovery could be rapid.
With diseases now largely having hit several times, the population of the Five Rivers has essentially bottomed out in 1720 and will be recovering very quickly after that. Other parts of Aururia will have similar effects, but the recovery date will start a bit later. This means that in 20-25 years, there will now be a very large population of young people looking for new opportunities, and probably new lands. A lot of this will be lands within the existing borders - after all, there's lots of vacant land nowadays - but there will also be some people who want to expand elsewhere.
In terms of the Mutjing, Tjibarr is already exploring the non-agricultural land between it and Dogport, and in a couple of cases exploiting resources. (There is some exceptionally high-quality iron ore there, for example). But the Gunnagal have no interest in trying to conquer the Mutjing directly, at least not in the short to medium-term. The Mutjing are already well-integrated into the economic system of the Five Rivers/western Durigal, as a source of raw materials including food, with manufactured goods going back again. (More of this will be featured in the next sequence of posts). Why risk ruining that and royally pissing off the Dutch when they get most of the benefits anyway?
Tjibarr is indeed quite willing to expand on their terms, though as always I'd add a note that their motivations are strange by European standards of the era (and indeed to modern eyes). They are quite open to expansion, but are also mindful of keeping their current social system intact. Integrating Yigutji is feasible (barring some resurgence from the Dominion or Europeans), but will not be quick and will need to be managed. Settler expansion into territories along their fringe is fine too. But conquests which would risk their social system are to be strongly discouraged, for example by expanding too fast or by expanding into lands which will not integrate well. So for the Mutjing and the Island (Nangu), which are staunchly Plirite (of a different school to those in the Five Rivers) and in part under Dutch protection, conquering them would be more trouble than it's worth even if they win.
The odd thing is that the Gunnagal still trade quite happily with lots of Europeans, for mutual benefit. It's not that the Gunnagal will always drop a deal - it's just that if they decide it's better for them to switch trade partners (or allies), they will find a way to do it.
Good question. Gutjanal will now wonder about Tjibarri intentions - but then Tjibarr will also worry about Gutjanalese intentions too.
The problem with losing the Yadji ruling Durigal is that if they fall, the EIC will almost certainly take over during the political vacuum. The Yadji have such a centralised state that its loss will bring chaos which the EIC will exploit.
None whatsoever. They'll be posted whenever they're finished. I've learnt better than to set deadlines because life keeps getting in the way.
I may paraphrase it very slightly in the canon version, but it was a good summary of the Gunnagal attitude.
Essentially the Aururian elephants will be as large as the elephants of the subspecies they're descended from, which if I remember right is smaller than average than other Asian elephants. And yes, they are unlikely to play major roles in combat, although there may be some small one-off uses in various places.
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Lycaon pictus
Donor
One positive result of Yangan, and the "never trust a Gunnagal" reputation, is that no one who has any sense will ever even think about trying to take over Tjibarr by supporting one or more factions of the Gunnagal against the others. Anyone in London or Amsterdam who suggests doing that is likely to get slapped on the back of the head.
The trick was to shoot Malligo in the back before he can shoot you in the back, and same applies to potential conquerers of Tjibarr.
Thank god we averted the horrible Emu war that occurred TTL.
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I honestly feel like he could have, he seemed to be a pretty good administrator as seen from his actions regarding the conquered lands. But I feel like if he died even after conquering the Five Rivers Kingdoms, the Dominion might face internal struggle similar to the Riddiya War that occurred in the Rashidun caliphate following the clash between the two separate factions (one under Abu Bakr, and the other under Ali). If Malligo wasn’t a true Gunnagal, I felt like he might have made his own powerplay following the Hunters death once he asserted his power. Although this internal struggle would probabaly be temporary, before they continue on their series of rapid expansion.
One way to avoid foreign interference is having them assume that any potential defector or local ally must be secretly planning to backstab them. And it also means that no real Gunnagal would try to defect anyway since they know they would be rejected anyway.
Maybe it's time for Tjibarr to go for its own version of Seclusion.
There's certainly some such attempts, though success has not been very noteworthy in the Islamic or Christian worlds. There's a very small presence in parts of India, and possibly in a small part of mainland SE Asia (still considering whether that's feasible). There's been rather more success in what is OTL eastern Indonesia, PNG, the Solomon Islands, and a few nearby regions.
But we also missed out on the Order of the Elephant...
The Hunter's odds of successfully conquering the rest of the Five Rivers were no better than about 1 in 3. The odds of successfully conquering Durigal were next to zero, since even if his forces had been successful that far, overextension would have really kicked in, and the EIC would have had time to ship in considerable numbers of weapons and (if needed) mercenaries to bolster the defence of Durigal.
To expand a bit on the chances for the Five Rivers, the problem was that even Yigutji was not completely conquered - the military remnants referred to in the last couple of posts were meaningful and could have been bolstered by Tjibarr and/or Gutjanal. (They ended up being subdued by Tjibarr and Gutjanal instead, but that's another story). Malligo encouraged the Hunter to go conquering into Tjibarr quicker than he would have otherwise (Malligo did not want Dominion rule of Yigutji to have a chance to become established), and actually getting Yigutji under control would have taken more time and bloodshed.
Once Yigutji was subdued, the problem was that what's left of the Five Rivers is too big to conquer quickly, and thanks to control of the rivers, the Five Rivers states would have better logistics and power projection than the Dominion. Cavalry are great for raids, and could have done considerable damage to Tjibarri and Gutjanalese territory, but holding territory requires infantry, and the Dominion didn't have that much. Tjibarr-of-the-Lakes is virtually impregnable to siege, as was flagged in the posts, and settling in to capturing it or Tapiwal (the other key city) would have been difficult since Gutjanal could support Tjibarr. Going for Gutjanal first has the same problem that Tjibarr would be supporting them in time.
Overcoming that wouldn't have been impossible, but it wasn't the way to bet. The Five Rivers would be seriously damaged by the war even if they won, though.
If he had conquered them, the Hunter would have made a very good administrator. The problem was more in the conquest, though administering Tjibarr would have also been a challenge.
Five Rivers flowing in Five Directions.... I'd rather be a Patjimunra.