Labour Wins in '51=No '53 Iranian Coup?

lord caedus

According to the Genocide's article on the 1953 Iranian coup d'etat that put the Shah in power in Iran, Attlee wasn't in favor of ousting Mossadegh militarily, but with using economic sanctions while using agents to destabilize his supporters.

What I'm wondering is: what if, by some POD, Attlee holds on to power in the 1951 election, would that butterfly the anti-Mossadegh coup away? And how would the souring of Anglo-Iranian relations over Mossadegh nationalizing Iran's oil reserves be resolved without the removal of Mossadegh, if the removal was butterflied away?
 
Plumber

Plumber

Yes. Same as if the Democrats win in '52.

Anglo-Iranian relations would be strained, but ultimately Iran would still be an ally.
 
RogueBeaver

RogueBeaver

It's very easy- Lab actually won more votes but poor vote distribution and an unfavourable electoral map gave it to the Tories. That election was decided by a pro-Tory swing among female voters. Have a slightly smaller swing, maybe controls or rationing is ended earlier.

Iran: Ike will still probably do it, or the Iranian military on their own.
 

lord caedus

Plumber said:
Source? If this was the case IOTL, why didn't it happen? External coups are never preferred when internal coups are available.
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This.

Also, why would Eisenhower overthrow Mossadegh if the British weren't going to help or finance it? I suppose Attlee could just do the old "our enemies are communists/fellow travelers" bit to try to convince the CIA, which seemed to work pretty well during most of the Cold War.
 

Revolutionary Avocado

lord caedus said:
This.

Also, why would Eisenhower overthrow Mossadegh if the British weren't going to help or finance it? I suppose Attlee could just do the old "our enemies are communists/fellow travelers" bit to try to convince the CIA, which seemed to work pretty well during most of the Cold War.
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Again, this. There is no way Ike is going to overthrow the government of Iran unless the British push Dulles at the CIA to do it. Mossadegh was actually fairly anti-Communist, the main political rival for his National Front was the communist Tudeh Party.

More likely, Ike backs Iran on the condition that it continue to supply oil to Western markets, and that the British are given some sort of face-saving gesture; likely Iran will purchase the British shares in the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, which will allow everyone to save face and move on. A left-nationalist, secular and democratic Iran will be a big boost to regional stability and the American side in the Cold War.
 
Magniac

Magniac

Interesting thought: the Labour government was influenced by the FO Arabists when it came to its Israeli policy, who's to say said pro-Arab policy advisors wouldn't also convince the Labour foreign secretary of the need to take a firm hand against Persia?
 
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