L’Aigle Triomphant: A Napoleonic Victory TL

[Niegel]

It is indeed an attempt to avoid the Peninsular War on OTL’s scale.

However, this configuration does not prevent that scale, but maintains it.​

That’s not to say Charles IV is popular and everything is roses; but bouncing Godoy and Ferdinand having embarrassed himself twice and thus headed should at least lower things to a simmer until the French find a longer-term settlement with Madrid.

But it will not do it, the entire government of Carlos IV and Godoy led Spain to a great level of weariness that rebounded with the occupation of the country's French troops.​

Infante Carlos after all isn’t going to putsch out his dad no matter how unpopular he gets, what with his rigid belief in divine right and all.

No, but the Spanish people will. Just imagine the Spanish perspective: Carlos IV who was popularly overthrown was now getting rid of Godoy to be King of Spain by the grace of the French Army.

And without Joseph’s poorly thought out progressive Napoleonic reforms to anger a wide swath of the conservative Spanish middle and lower classes you don’t have that same deep pool of potential agitators and rebels.

But those reforms were established in practice once Napoleon forcibly installed his brother in his intervention in Spain, resulting in the weakening of the eastern front and the War of the Fifth Coalition. Even without the reforms, the pool of discontent remains huge because the French occupation has intensified and raged.​

 

[KingSweden24]

However, this configuration does not prevent that scale, but maintains it.


But it will not do it, the entire government of Carlos IV and Godoy led Spain to a great level of weariness that rebounded with the occupation of the country's French troops.​

No, but the Spanish people will. Just imagine the Spanish perspective: Carlos IV who was popularly overthrown was now getting rid of Godoy to be King of Spain by the grace of the French Army.

But those reforms were established in practice once Napoleon forcibly installed his brother in his intervention in Spain, resulting in the weakening of the eastern front and the War of the Fifth Coalition. Even without the reforms, the pool of discontent remains huge because the French occupation has intensified and raged.​

Every description of Ferdinand’s attempts to take the throne suggest it wasn’t some populist revolt but rather the anti-afrancesado element and more anti-Godoy (understandable) than anything else. Dumping Godoy solves a LOT of problems for Charles. That and a smarter response to Dos de Mayo than Murat and Joseph’s crackdown after the Bayonne Abdications

 

[Niegel]

Every description of Ferdinand’s attempts to take the throne suggest it wasn’t some populist revolt but rather the anti-afrancesado element and more anti-Godoy (understandable) than anything else.

However, the Tumult of Aranjuez was a popular revolt led by those elements due to the discontent that the Spanish people suffered from the reign of Carlos IV and the occupation of the country by France. The May 2 uprising (a spontaneous popular revolt) followed the wave of this discontent​

Dumping Godoy solves a LOT of problems for Charles.

Not in fact, because maybe Godoy is leaving, but now Carlos IV is more infamous for having allowed the country to fall into the hands of the French. This will intensify the anti-French element (as in OTL) and Charles IV will be seen as the real perpetrator of Godoy's misfortunes, damaging his reputation even more than in OTL.​

That and a smarter response to Dos de Mayo than Murat and Joseph’s crackdown after the Bayonne Abdications

Repression is still repression. I think you are underestimating the impact that the French invasion had on Spain: Godoy's government was increasingly seen as Spanish vassalage to France that did not bring anything positive (alliance with an anticlerical Republic, implementation of progressive reforms, the country's fleet destroyed , Gibraltar was never recovered, adhesion to a Continental System that harms Spanish trade for the sake of France, green light for France to enter troops into Spanish territory and... Occupation of Spain).

There is a good reason why Ferdinand VII was preferred to his father Charles IV even though, technically, the latter was the rightful king. Now in his TL this contempt is clearer: “It was not Godoy but Carlos IV who sold Spain to France”, the anti-French element will proclaim and the people will believe it and rise up as in OTL.​

 

[KingSweden24]

However, the Tumult of Aranjuez was a popular revolt led by those elements due to the discontent that the Spanish people suffered from the reign of Carlos IV and the occupation of the country by France. The May 2 uprising (a spontaneous popular revolt) followed the wave of this discontent


Not in fact, because maybe Godoy is leaving, but now Carlos IV is more infamous for having allowed the country to fall into the hands of the French. This will intensify the anti-French element (as in OTL) and Charles IV will be seen as the real perpetrator of Godoy's misfortunes, damaging his reputation even more than in OTL.


Repression is still repression. I think you are underestimating the impact that the French invasion had on Spain: Godoy's government was increasingly seen as Spanish vassalage to France that did not bring anything positive (alliance with an anticlerical Republic, implementation of progressive reforms, the country's fleet destroyed , Gibraltar was never recovered, adhesion to a Continental System that harms Spanish trade for the sake of France, green light for France to enter troops into Spanish territory and... Occupation of Spain).

There is a good reason why Ferdinand VII was preferred to his father Charles IV even though, technically, the latter was the rightful king. Now in his TL this contempt is clearer: “It was not Godoy but Carlos IV who sold Spain to France”, the anti-French element will proclaim and the people will believe it and rise up as in OTL.​

I take your well-argued and defended points but I don’t agree with the end conclusions. Obviously the best move for Napoleon would have never been to enter Iberia in the first place but Bayonne is the last opportunity for him to avoid the complete disaster it became otl (accepting Ferdinand would of course be smarter still than what he does TTL but this is Nappy we’re talking about).

I think you’re somewhat overstating the anticlerical nature of the First Empire by 1808, rapprochement with Rome had already occurred and Spain had pursued some modest clerical reform without controversy already by the start of the 19th century. The issue isn’t allying with “anticlerical” France so much as Joseph importing wholesale revolutionary policy with minimal popular support and imposing it via fiat on an oppressed, occupied (as you correctly put it) population. Charles is doing nothing of the sort and has already fired Godoy in a desperation move to save his throne in an unstable situation.

I also think you’re understating how outrageous Bayonne and installing such an obvious puppet as Joseph was, both in Spain and beyond. Charles IV was unpopular, sure, but weak unpopular kings limp along after narrowly avoiding crises that threaten their rule all the time. Moving around family members (I’m including Murat’s promotion from Berg to Naples in this) ad hoc from kingdom to kingdom to impose them upon supine populations as direct vassals looks just as bad as it is and made it clear that Napoleon intended for the Bonapartes - all of them - to rule Europe on his behalf. Napoleon choosing not to recognize the attempted coup by a popular son against his popular father when said son explicitly sought said legitimization is admittedly and in typical Bonaparte fashion heavy-handed and dense but doesn’t come close to OTL’s galaxy brain decision made at Bayonne.

A spontaneous riot like Dos de Mayo over Murat’s debauchery in Madrid can be survived even if it suggests deeper issues than anticipated; the one-two punch of that and Bayonne three days later cannot, as Napoleon learned quickly IOTL.

 

[Niegel]

I take your well-argued and defended points but I don’t agree with the end conclusions. Obviously the best move for Napoleon would have never been to enter Iberia in the first place but Bayonne is the last opportunity for him to avoid the complete disaster it became otl (accepting Ferdinand would of course be smarter still than what he does TTL but this is Nappy we’re talking about).

Napoleon could perfectly get rid of Godoy and Carlos IV and accept the government of Fernando VII. The problem with OTL was that from the beginning he wanted to get rid of the Bourbon monarchy (his brother Louis was a candidate, Bernadotte too and Murat, but Joseph was elected because he did a good work in Naples, he was his brother and he accepted). One POD to avoid that would be for Godoy to decide that his infamous proclamation of 1806 is a congratulation to Prussia on his (absent) victory rather than public support for his war with France. Napoleon I then wins at Jena and never gets to hear a document that was never published, lessening his resentment towards the Bourbons in Spain. This allows Napoleon I to invade the Peninsula, but in order to put pressure on Godoy to renegotiate the Treaty of Fontainebleau (France maintains full possession of Portugal). The Aranjuez Tumult happens, Bayona and May 2 also with the difference that Napoleon accepts Fernando VII, a subject more desperate for Napoleonic approval, and renegotiates the treaty. Finally Napoleon evacuates Spain because he no longer needs his army there.​

I think you’re somewhat overstating the anticlerical nature of the First Empire by 1808, rapprochement with Rome had already occurred and Spain had pursued some modest clerical reform without controversy already by the start of the 19th century. The issue isn’t allying with “anticlerical” France so much as Joseph importing wholesale revolutionary policy with minimal popular support and imposing it via fiat on an oppressed, occupied (as you correctly put it) population. Charles is doing nothing of the sort and has already fired Godoy in a desperation move to save his throne in an unstable situation.

No, I am saying that allying with the French Consulate made the traditional Spanish element very bad because, from their perspective, it was still the Republic of Robespierre and, in the long term, it was one of the reasons that gave rise to the horrible idea that Spain he became a French vassal.​

I also think you’re understating how outrageous Bayonne and installing such an obvious puppet as Joseph was, both in Spain and beyond. Charles IV was unpopular, sure, but weak unpopular kings limp along after narrowly avoiding crises that threaten their rule all the time. Moving around family members (I’m including Murat’s promotion from Berg to Naples in this) ad hoc from kingdom to kingdom to impose them upon supine populations as direct vassals looks just as bad as it is and made it clear that Napoleon intended for the Bonapartes - all of them - to rule Europe on his behalf. Napoleon choosing not to recognize the attempted coup by a popular son against his popular father when said son explicitly sought said legitimization is admittedly and in typical Bonaparte fashion heavy-handed and dense but doesn’t come close to OTL’s galaxy brain decision made at Bayonne.

A spontaneous riot like Dos de Mayo over Murat’s debauchery in Madrid can be survived even if it suggests deeper issues than anticipated; the one-two punch of that and Bayonne three days later cannot, as Napoleon learned quickly IOTL.

All of that would make sense in a different situation, but not in this particular case (in fact, it is possible that Napoleon had a similar reasoning when putting Joseph on the throne) because:

1) Napoleon relocates a king who has already been dethroned popularly

2) The French occupation ends up showing that Carlos IV and Godoy turned Spain into a French vassal.

Removing Godoy from the equation is smart and would work, but...

3) In your TL the French occupation of Spain is maintained. No matter how this occupation is handled, the people will not tolerate it even if Carlos IV is their king and not Joseph because, from their perspective, Carlos IV is now totally responsible for all of Godoy's problems and Fernando VII is the true legitimate king that El Corso took from them.

4) If Spain is vacated with Carlos IV as king, there will be another coup that will replace it with another king. And Fernando VII is placed only buy time until everything explodes again (this is the closest to your intentions and is reasonably plausible, but I insist that the best alternative is the POD indicated above).​

 

[KingSweden24]

Napoleon could perfectly get rid of Godoy and Carlos IV and accept the government of Fernando VII. The problem with OTL was that from the beginning he wanted to get rid of the Bourbon monarchy (his brother Louis was a candidate, Bernadotte too and Murat, but Joseph was elected because he did a good work in Naples, he was his brother and he accepted). One POD to avoid that would be for Godoy to decide that his infamous proclamation of 1806 is a congratulation to Prussia on his (absent) victory rather than public support for his war with France. Napoleon I then wins at Jena and never gets to hear a document that was never published, lessening his resentment towards the Bourbons in Spain. This allows Napoleon I to invade the Peninsula, but in order to put pressure on Godoy to renegotiate the Treaty of Fontainebleau (France maintains full possession of Portugal). The Aranjuez Tumult happens, Bayona and May 2 also with the difference that Napoleon accepts Fernando VII, a subject more desperate for Napoleonic approval, and renegotiates the treaty. Finally Napoleon evacuates Spain because he no longer needs his army there.


No, I am saying that allying with the French Consulate made the traditional Spanish element very bad because, from their perspective, it was still the Republic of Robespierre and, in the long term, it was one of the reasons that gave rise to the horrible idea that Spain he became a French vassal.


All of that would make sense in a different situation, but not in this particular case (in fact, it is possible that Napoleon had a similar reasoning when putting Joseph on the throne) because:

1) Napoleon relocates a king who has already been dethroned popularly

2) The French occupation ends up showing that Carlos IV and Godoy turned Spain into a French vassal.

Removing Godoy from the equation is smart and would work, but...

3) In your TL the French occupation of Spain is maintained. No matter how this occupation is handled, the people will not tolerate it even if Carlos IV is their king and not Joseph because, from their perspective, Carlos IV is now totally responsible for all of Godoy's problems and Fernando VII is the true legitimate king that El Corso took from them.

4) If Spain is vacated with Carlos IV as king, there will be another coup that will replace it with another king. And Fernando VII is placed only buy time until everything explodes again (this is the closest to your intentions and is reasonably plausible, but I insist that the best alternative is the POD indicated above).​

Negotiating Fontainebleau after Godoy’s sacking is something I definitely should have included; would probably salve a lot of the bruises. And that is probably indeed a superior POD.

At any rate, at the point the TL has arrived at, Napoleon’s forces have long since exited Spain; besides, Britain has done a good enough job angering Madrid with her new world shenanigans. So the Spanish don’t love the French but they LOATHE Britain, so Spain could be a problem for France in the future under a more rigidly conservative Carlos V (and, indeed, will be)

 

[Aluma]

Problems in the paradise, eh Napoleon?

 

[Wendell]

Negotiating Fontainebleau after Godoy’s sacking is something I definitely should have included; would probably salve a lot of the bruises. And that is probably indeed a superior POD.

At any rate, at the point the TL has arrived at, Napoleon’s forces have long since exited Spain; besides, Britain has done a good enough job angering Madrid with her new world shenanigans. So the Spanish don’t love the French but they LOATHE Britain, so Spain could be a problem for France in the future under a more rigidly conservative Carlos V (and, indeed, will be)

So Ferdinand won't be coming back?

 

[TimTurner]

Nice work.

 

[KingSweden24]

Nice work.

Thanks!

So Ferdinand won't be coming back?

Define “come back.” Are we distinguishing dead or alive?

 

[Niegel]

Negotiating Fontainebleau after Godoy’s sacking is something I definitely should have included; would probably salve a lot of the bruises. And that is probably indeed a superior POD.

At any rate, at the point the TL has arrived at, Napoleon’s forces have long since exited Spain; besides, Britain has done a good enough job angering Madrid with her new world shenanigans. So the Spanish don’t love the French but they LOATHE Britain, so Spain could be a problem for France in the future under a more rigidly conservative Carlos V (and, indeed, will be)

I try to point out two things:​

1. Your POD from the beginning is implausible because Napoleon already had intentions to depose the Bourbons ever since he found a correspondence in Berlin written by Godoy that hinted at the joining of Spain to the Fourth Coalition if Prussia won victories. Napoleon was no longer comfortable with his helpful, but ambiguous Bourbons (probably compounded by the earlier Neapolitan betrayal in the Third Coalition and his personal opinion of this noble house).
   ​
2. Your solution is too optimistic when you think that the Spanish people will remain calm with Carlos IV and Godoy far away, but with their country militarily and politically transformed into a vassal.​

Normally, I just say go ahead, but you already did that, so I am proposing a retcon that makes your TL more plausible if you wish:​

• Godoy prefers to write a congratulation rather than a letter of support to Prussia. Jena – Auerstedt happens, but Napoleon never finds anything because Godoy never sent or declared anything suspicious. Butterflies lessen Napoleon's resentment.
  ​
• The French entry to the Peninsula is similar, but with the difference that Napoleon wants to pressure Godoy to renegotiate the Treaty of Fontainebleau (the original was just a ruse to allow the invasion of the Peninsula as soon as possible, in fact Junot entered before it was signed) so that France can occupy the whole of Portugal with the aim of using it as a diplomatic currency with Great Britain.
  ​
• The Aranjuez Tumult occurs as in OTL as an unexpected event for Napoleon, who soon becomes involved in Bayonne and receives news of an uprising in Madrid. Being the opportunist that he is, he understands that it is easier for him to get rid of Carlos IV and Godoy and recognize Fernando VII. The Treaty of Bayonne is signed and Napoleon achieves his objectives plus an addition: Catalonia for the French Empire. In return, he takes Carlos IV and Godoy, recognizes Fernando VII, and evacuates Spain.​

I imagine that Fernando VII will be seen as a kind of savior for his apparent success, even though he lost Catalonia and Great Britain will become a hated enemy for her actions in Latin America. However, the entire plot of Fernando VII in Mexico would have to be modified, but you have the advantage that everything else remains intact.

Another point: Junot should become a marshal if all went well on the Peninsula.

 

[KingSweden24]

I try to point out two things:​

1. Your POD from the beginning is implausible because Napoleon already had intentions to depose the Bourbons ever since he found a correspondence in Berlin written by Godoy that hinted at the joining of Spain to the Fourth Coalition if Prussia won victories. Napoleon was no longer comfortable with his helpful, but ambiguous Bourbons (probably compounded by the earlier Neapolitan betrayal in the Third Coalition and his personal opinion of this noble house).​
2. Your solution is too optimistic when you think that the Spanish people will remain calm with Carlos IV and Godoy far away, but with their country militarily and politically transformed into a vassal.​

Normally, I just say go ahead, but you already did that, so I am proposing a retcon that makes your TL more plausible if you wish:​

• Godoy prefers to write a congratulation rather than a letter of support to Prussia. Jena – Auerstedt happens, but Napoleon never finds anything because Godoy never sent or declared anything suspicious. Butterflies lessen Napoleon's resentment.​
• The French entry to the Peninsula is similar, but with the difference that Napoleon wants to pressure Godoy to renegotiate the Treaty of Fontainebleau (the original was just a ruse to allow the invasion of the Peninsula as soon as possible, in fact Junot entered before it was signed) so that France can occupy the whole of Portugal with the aim of using it as a diplomatic currency with Great Britain.​
• The Aranjuez Tumult occurs as in OTL as an unexpected event for Napoleon, who soon becomes involved in Bayonne and receives news of an uprising in Madrid. Being the opportunist that he is, he understands that it is easier for him to get rid of Carlos IV and Godoy and recognize Fernando VII. The Treaty of Bayonne is signed and Napoleon achieves his objectives plus an addition: Catalonia for the French Empire. In return, he takes Carlos IV and Godoy, recognizes Fernando VII, and evacuates Spain.​

I imagine that Fernando VII will be seen as a kind of savior for his apparent success, even though he lost Catalonia and Great Britain will become a hated enemy for her actions in Latin America. However, the entire plot of Fernando VII in Mexico would have to be modified, but you have the advantage that everything else remains intact.

Another point: Junot should become a marshal if all went well on the Peninsula.

Some good ideas here. Would Spain not be outraged at France’s stripping her of Catalonia, though? That seems to me just as likely, if not more so, to generate deep resentment than leaving Carlos IV around even once Godoy has been shot into the sun

And yes Junot should 100% be a marshal.

 

[Kurd Gossemer]

Some good ideas here. Would Spain not be outraged at France’s stripping her of Catalonia, though? That seems to me just as likely, if not more so, to generate deep resentment than leaving Carlos IV around even once Godoy has been shot into the sun

And yes Junot should 100% be a marshal.

I'll admit at not being very knowledgeable about the opinions of the avarage 19th century Spaniard on Catalonia, but considering the times it had rebelled against the crown, I think they could be conviced they're better off without those pesky Catalans.

 

[KingSweden24]

I'll admit at not being very knowledgeable about the opinions of the avarage 19th century Spaniard on Catalonia, but considering the times it had rebelled against the crown, I think they could be conviced they're better off without those pesky Catalans.

Sure, but how often did Euro monarchies just go “yeah sure just carve off some of my territory don’t let the door hit you on the way out!”

That’s what I have a hard time seeing haha

 

[Wendell]

If you're going to give any part of Spain away, give France Val d'Aran and the Cerdanya enclave.

 

[MiniaAr]

Catalonia is much to big to be taken without long term resentment. Val d'Aran and Gizpukoa (San Sebastian) which for some reason had been wanted by the French for some time (it was part of the treaty of London before the WoSS) would be easier bits to chew.

That being said, I don't think this TL needs a rewrite of the POD as big as the one you're suggesting. Switching Carlos for Ferdinand is a big deal!
It seems that you cannot suspend your disbelief regarding that but for my part, I have no issue with the Carlos restauration and sacking of Godoy as well as French troops leaving Spain and that this would prevent the OTL Peninsular war.

 

[Niegel]

Some good ideas here. Would Spain not be outraged at France’s stripping her of Catalonia, though? That seems to me just as likely, if not more so, to generate deep resentment than leaving Carlos IV around even once Godoy has been shot into the sun

From the Spanish perspective, the country has been saved from falling miserably from the French (since the troops would be evacuated), the king they installed has been recognized, and Carlos IV and Godoy have been sent far away. The cost is Catalonia, a part of the country, but not the country. The resentment is strongly attenuated (although it exists and can lead to a betrayal with the French, but in your TL the English are more annoying).

Obviously Napoleon shouldn't take Catalonia as OTL, but I assume from your TL that you want to deal with Napoleon's OTL decisions.​

 

[Niegel]

That being said, I don't think this TL needs a rewrite of the POD as big as the one you're suggesting. Switching Carlos for Ferdinand is a big deal!
It seems that you cannot suspend your disbelief regarding that but for my part, I have no issue with the Carlos restauration and sacking of Godoy as well as French troops leaving Spain and that this would prevent the OTL Peninsular war.

Well, I can. I'm usually interested in what comes after POD, but this has already been established so I point out how it could be more plausible in its weaker part. For example, a soft retcon would include everything already said in my POD proposal, but Carlos IV is the one recognized by Napoleon and continues from there. Even if it leaves Charles IV with a relatively stable government in the long run, it is much more plausible than French-protected Charles IV. In this way, everything remains practically the same, but in a more plausible setting.​

 

[Wendell]

I don't think a switch is needed. Let's see where this goes. But, one perk of backing Ferdinand was that he had entertained marrying into the Bonapartes, so his doing so would at least in theory bring Spain into the Bonapartist network of French satellites that already included personages linked to the family by marriage such as Murat.

 

[MiniaAr]

Is there a non married Bonaparte sister available at the time of the Aranjuez crisis?