Juan Manuel Rosas is probably one of the most controversial figures in Argentine history. He was either a national hero who stood up to European and Brazilian imperialism or a brutal dictator who suppressed dissent and exiled his liberal opponents to Uruguay.
Due to that, I think it would be interesting to have a thread about PODs vaguely or explicitly related to Rosas from the 1820s to the 1830s, before the Platine War removed him from power:
Impacts on Argentina = Bernardino Rivadavia remains in power, and continues his liberal reforms, leading to a much more prosperous Argentina, albeit a much more centralized one, with Buenos Aires having tens of millions of inhabitants by TTL's 2024, while at the same time the interior provinces remain the same or are just a bit more developed than IOTL, given the Unitarian focus of Rivadavia's presidency. Rivadavia faces a wave of clashes from the other provinces (including Uruguay) in the 1830s, but is able to defeat them.
Impacts on Rosas = With the Cisplatine War ending in a victory, Rosas never rises to power, although he may still gain more importance in some Argentine government.
Impacts on Argentina = Dorrego implements a Federalist constitution, leading to a final rebellion by the Unitarians in Buenos Aires which is suppressed. Argentina becomes a Federalist nation based on the United States of America, with power shared between the provinces.
Impacts on Rosas = With Dorrego never being executed, Rosas never rises to become Governor of Buenos Aires and a representative of the Federalist cause.
Impacts on Argentina = Rosas did have an impact in stabilizing Argentina in the late 1830s and 1840s, temporarily suspending the cycle of civil wars that plagued the country since its independence. Without that, it's likely that the conflicts between the Federalists and Unitarians will continue, and that foreign powers will take advantage of that. Argentina ends up worse than OTL.
Impacts on Rosas = Assuming that he doesn't start a civil war himself to get into power, Rosas retires to a quiet life in the surroundings of Buenos Aires while the country burns.
Impacts on Argentina = There is a chance that a weaker Rosas has Argentina enter into a new period of civil war, with Rosas succumbing to the humiliation of the French victory and leaving the government. This starts a new cycle of conflicts between Federalists and Unitarians.
Due to that, I think it would be interesting to have a thread about PODs vaguely or explicitly related to Rosas from the 1820s to the 1830s, before the Platine War removed him from power:
- Argentina wins the Cisplatine War. POD on September 1824 = The Confederation of the Equator successfully defeats the Brazilian Army in Olinda, leading to a wave of rebellions in the Northeast that destabilize the Empire. Seeing this, the Argentines make their move and send the Thirty-Three Orientals to Uruguay, and claim it as part of Argentina. This leads to the Cisplatine War, with a more demoralized Brazilian Army and with most of the Navy stationed in the Northeast of Brazil, has Argentina emerge victorious. Brazil faces a wave of rebellions that nearly disintegrate the country, while Argentina gets Uruguay and has full control over the Rio de la Plata.
Impacts on Argentina = Bernardino Rivadavia remains in power, and continues his liberal reforms, leading to a much more prosperous Argentina, albeit a much more centralized one, with Buenos Aires having tens of millions of inhabitants by TTL's 2024, while at the same time the interior provinces remain the same or are just a bit more developed than IOTL, given the Unitarian focus of Rivadavia's presidency. Rivadavia faces a wave of clashes from the other provinces (including Uruguay) in the 1830s, but is able to defeat them.
Impacts on Rosas = With the Cisplatine War ending in a victory, Rosas never rises to power, although he may still gain more importance in some Argentine government.
- Manuel Dorrego isn't executed. POD on December 1828 = Manuel Dorrego is informed about Lavalle's coup plans, and quickly prevents them from happening, arresting the conspirators and executing them.
Impacts on Argentina = Dorrego implements a Federalist constitution, leading to a final rebellion by the Unitarians in Buenos Aires which is suppressed. Argentina becomes a Federalist nation based on the United States of America, with power shared between the provinces.
Impacts on Rosas = With Dorrego never being executed, Rosas never rises to become Governor of Buenos Aires and a representative of the Federalist cause.
- Facundo Quiroga isn't assassinated. POD on February 1835 = Quiroga takes an alternate route back to Buenos Aires and therefore isn't ambushed and killed. This prevents the crisis that took place in Buenos Aires due to his death and the following return of Rosas to the Government of Buenos Aires
Impacts on Argentina = Rosas did have an impact in stabilizing Argentina in the late 1830s and 1840s, temporarily suspending the cycle of civil wars that plagued the country since its independence. Without that, it's likely that the conflicts between the Federalists and Unitarians will continue, and that foreign powers will take advantage of that. Argentina ends up worse than OTL.
Impacts on Rosas = Assuming that he doesn't start a civil war himself to get into power, Rosas retires to a quiet life in the surroundings of Buenos Aires while the country burns.
- A successful French blockade of the Rio de la Plata. POD on January 1839 = The Peru-Bolivian Confederation wins the Battle of Yungay. This means that Rosas doesn't focus as much on fighting against the blockade.
Impacts on Argentina = There is a chance that a weaker Rosas has Argentina enter into a new period of civil war, with Rosas succumbing to the humiliation of the French victory and leaving the government. This starts a new cycle of conflicts between Federalists and Unitarians.