So there was a discussion recently about Charles VI dying during the War of Spanish Succession and there have previously been threads about what could have happened if both he and Charles had died (ie the entire Habsburg male line in Spain and Austria dying out at the same time) and conversely if he had lived longer or if is son had lived. But I was thinking about this recently as a kind of counter-factual. How important was the separation of Spain and Austria to the allies and the broader diplomatic/political/strategic situation in Europe?
OTL the death of Joseph in 1711 and the ascension of Charles to the HRE was cited as a cause of wavering support for continuing the war as the union of Spain and Austria would potentially upset the balance of power. But on the other hand England was already moving towards peace by that point and Philip had a fairly secure grip on Spain (Catalonia not withstanding) so one could argue this was a lesser concern or even that it was merely convenient cover for a decision that was made for other reasons.
So what it Joseph had died in 1703? His younger sister Maria Josepha died that year from smallpox so let's say it gets both Joseph and Josepha in April of 1703. He would of course never have become Joseph I as he would have died merely an Archduke, predeceasing his father the Emperor Leopold, although he does still leave two infant daughters. Charles has already been proclaimed Charles III of Spain but is at this point is still living in Vienna (he wouldn't leave for Spain until, by way of Portugal, until 1705). So while the two realms don't fall into immediate personal union it's clear that they will if Charles were to become King of Spain as he'd also succeed his father as HRE. So what happens to the allied position? Do they continue to fight France and attempt to remove Philip from Spain even knowing that such a personal union will result? Or do they alter their war aims, limiting the objective to a partition that will shear off much of the Spanish Empire for Charles, similar to the OTL outcome? Do they back another candidate for the Spanish throne?
A couple things to consider.
In 1703 the war is going badly for the allies. The French have secured Spain and Spanish Italy for Philip and thanks to Max Emmanuel's treachery the Spanish Netherlands too. Portugal has recognized Philip as has Savoy. Vendome is in Northern Italy with a French army while another has joined Max Emmanuel in Bavaria, preparing to strike at Austria. Hungary is just starting to break out into open revolt under Francis Rakoczi.
OTL 1703 would see the Anlgo-Dutch campaign in the Netherlands capture only Guelders and Limburg, making no headway into Flanders. The Franco-Bavarian campaign meanwhile would end in failure due to Max Emmanuel's decision to invade the Tyrol to link up with Vendome. The Hungarian revolt would spread like wildfire. It was not until 1704 that momentum shifted to the allies. Both Portugal and Savoy would waver and ultimately switch sides while the Franco-Dutch army was annihilated at Blenheim and Bavaria was thus neutralized.
Importantly the war aims were not clear defined until the Treaty of Methuen which brought Portugal into the war and constituted an agreement to seek the removal of Philip as a condition for peace. Likewise the Austrian Mutual Succession Pact which Leopold instituted to regulate the Habsburg Succession had not yet come into being.
So in 1703 the war's not going well and the allies now have to reevaluate pushing Charles as their candidate for the Spanish throne. But the situation is fluid as they can still negotiate on the Habsburg Succession and their ultimate war aims. Do Portugal and Savoy push for another candidate as a condition for switching sides. Does this even present a concern to the English or Dutch at all (as it at least nominally did OTL in 1711-1713)?
If not Charles who do the allies back, his eldest sister Maria Elisabeth or one of Joseph's infant daughters? Does Savoy put himself forward as a candidate, he was listed as 4th in Charles II's will after Philip, Charles de Berry and the Archduke Charles. Or if they continue to back Charles but limit their aim to a partition of the Spanish Empire is there even to be a Spanish campaign or do the allies focus on campaigning in Italy, the Netherlands and Northern France, limiting attacks against Spain to a naval or colonial campaign. Portugal is probably less necessary in such a scenario.
OTL the death of Joseph in 1711 and the ascension of Charles to the HRE was cited as a cause of wavering support for continuing the war as the union of Spain and Austria would potentially upset the balance of power. But on the other hand England was already moving towards peace by that point and Philip had a fairly secure grip on Spain (Catalonia not withstanding) so one could argue this was a lesser concern or even that it was merely convenient cover for a decision that was made for other reasons.
So what it Joseph had died in 1703? His younger sister Maria Josepha died that year from smallpox so let's say it gets both Joseph and Josepha in April of 1703. He would of course never have become Joseph I as he would have died merely an Archduke, predeceasing his father the Emperor Leopold, although he does still leave two infant daughters. Charles has already been proclaimed Charles III of Spain but is at this point is still living in Vienna (he wouldn't leave for Spain until, by way of Portugal, until 1705). So while the two realms don't fall into immediate personal union it's clear that they will if Charles were to become King of Spain as he'd also succeed his father as HRE. So what happens to the allied position? Do they continue to fight France and attempt to remove Philip from Spain even knowing that such a personal union will result? Or do they alter their war aims, limiting the objective to a partition that will shear off much of the Spanish Empire for Charles, similar to the OTL outcome? Do they back another candidate for the Spanish throne?
A couple things to consider.
In 1703 the war is going badly for the allies. The French have secured Spain and Spanish Italy for Philip and thanks to Max Emmanuel's treachery the Spanish Netherlands too. Portugal has recognized Philip as has Savoy. Vendome is in Northern Italy with a French army while another has joined Max Emmanuel in Bavaria, preparing to strike at Austria. Hungary is just starting to break out into open revolt under Francis Rakoczi.
OTL 1703 would see the Anlgo-Dutch campaign in the Netherlands capture only Guelders and Limburg, making no headway into Flanders. The Franco-Bavarian campaign meanwhile would end in failure due to Max Emmanuel's decision to invade the Tyrol to link up with Vendome. The Hungarian revolt would spread like wildfire. It was not until 1704 that momentum shifted to the allies. Both Portugal and Savoy would waver and ultimately switch sides while the Franco-Dutch army was annihilated at Blenheim and Bavaria was thus neutralized.
Importantly the war aims were not clear defined until the Treaty of Methuen which brought Portugal into the war and constituted an agreement to seek the removal of Philip as a condition for peace. Likewise the Austrian Mutual Succession Pact which Leopold instituted to regulate the Habsburg Succession had not yet come into being.
So in 1703 the war's not going well and the allies now have to reevaluate pushing Charles as their candidate for the Spanish throne. But the situation is fluid as they can still negotiate on the Habsburg Succession and their ultimate war aims. Do Portugal and Savoy push for another candidate as a condition for switching sides. Does this even present a concern to the English or Dutch at all (as it at least nominally did OTL in 1711-1713)?
If not Charles who do the allies back, his eldest sister Maria Elisabeth or one of Joseph's infant daughters? Does Savoy put himself forward as a candidate, he was listed as 4th in Charles II's will after Philip, Charles de Berry and the Archduke Charles. Or if they continue to back Charles but limit their aim to a partition of the Spanish Empire is there even to be a Spanish campaign or do the allies focus on campaigning in Italy, the Netherlands and Northern France, limiting attacks against Spain to a naval or colonial campaign. Portugal is probably less necessary in such a scenario.