My version of the Med strategy:
1941
POD: Italy fails on all fronts - against Greece, against Britain, against anyone. Sending German troops here and there to bail out the Italians is actually a waste of time. Instead, Hitler decides to "unite" Germany and Italy, similar to what was done in 1943. Now all the Italian possessions are his, and a war in North Africa is actually worth some more effort.
- Any Italian resistance in Libya is defeated. I suppose some ships will be turned over to Germany, some will be sunk or disabled, some will manage to flee.
- The Balkan including Greece is conquered.
- The US might be annoyed, but except stepping up their aid for Britain, I don't see much change.
- In this situation, it'll be impossible for Germany to keep Russia out of Rumania and Persia. Russia attacks Rumania first, but the Germans are able to get large oil deliveries as a compensation for loosing Rumania as trading partner - even more than they got IOTL.
- Malta, Cyprus and other places are conquered.
- From Libya, Germany expands towards Egypt and Free French territories.
- Lots of subs, torpedo boats, and small cruisers are built in the Med.
- The Italian weapons production is streamlined and updated to the most effective German weapons and ammunition.
- Japan doesn't declare war against the US as Russia is too much of a threat. Germany therefore also doesn't declare war, despite being provoked to.
1942
- With an effort comparable to the OTL attack against Russia, Egypt and the Middle East is conquered, as well as Sudan and other British possessions in the area.
- Russia starts the attack against Persia, thus entering the war against Britain and becoming part of the Axis.
- Oil now comes from Libya, too.
- British bombing becomes an annoyance. Germany knowing it's already pretty overstretched still avoids a war with the US.
- As there is less need for that many tanks, more ressources and money can be invested into planes, bombers, ships, subs, and so on - Britain also feels a little bit annoyed.
- Instead of being killed, the Jews are sent to Palestine. As there have been few deaths in the concentration camps yet, there even develops a friendly relationship. Many of the "2nd and 3rd degree Jews" also keep their Christian believes.
1943
- Russia is now fully occupied with Afghanistan and India, keeping that thread away from Germany and also keeping the US from declaring war against Germany. All those litttle t-34s easily overrun British defences in India.
- Germany expands further into Africa.
- The Vichy Republic is taken by Germany as IOTL, for the same reasons. That also adds Algeria and Tunesia to the German territory.
- Oil now flows freely towards Germany from North Africa and the Mideast. Britain is feeling the pinch.
- The u-boat war is much more deadly than IOTL, causing Britain lots of losses. Germany can even afford not to sink US ships to delay a US entry into the war.
- The British public cries for accepting any honorable peace offers.
1944
- Germany strikes a secret deal with Britain, Japan, and the US: Britain can keep India, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Persia, and South Africa (de facto). Other parts of Africa are shared between the remaining powers there. The US keeps anything it has, as well as control over Greenland and Iceland. Germany keeps continental Europe, most of north Africa, and the Middle East. Turkey stays neutral (?). Japan gets all of East Asia except the area around Australia. Russia will be attacked by the combined forces of Britain, Japan, and Germany. The US will support the British effort with weapons and ammunitions deliveries in exchange for the one or other British possession in the Americas. Any embargoes will be lifted. This time, the British are ready to accept. The US also agrees, due to the communist thread.
- Russia is attacked from all sides at once. Japan is still no problem for the Russians, but occupies enough troops to allow Germany to be successful. Britain finally manages to keep the Russians from advancing further into the remaining India. Logistical problems keep Russia from employing their T-34s fully. Germany advances slower than in the beginning of OTL's Barbarossa, but they advance. Canadian forces help Finland to advance from the north.
1945
- Russia gives up. It looses Karelia, the Ukraine, Poland, Persia, Afghanistan, India, and Pakistan. It keeps Mongolia, Sachalin, White Russia. China gets independent (including Russian occupied Manchuria).
- Germany gets free reign in continental Europe, North Africa, and Arabia. They incorporate Switzerland and later Spain, Portugal, Sweden, and Finland.
- America develops the bomb as IOTL, but doesn't have an enemy to use it against.
- The US becomes super power number one, Germany follows, then Britain, then (after recovering) Russia.
1941
POD: Italy fails on all fronts - against Greece, against Britain, against anyone. Sending German troops here and there to bail out the Italians is actually a waste of time. Instead, Hitler decides to "unite" Germany and Italy, similar to what was done in 1943. Now all the Italian possessions are his, and a war in North Africa is actually worth some more effort.
- Any Italian resistance in Libya is defeated. I suppose some ships will be turned over to Germany, some will be sunk or disabled, some will manage to flee.
- The Balkan including Greece is conquered.
- The US might be annoyed, but except stepping up their aid for Britain, I don't see much change.
- In this situation, it'll be impossible for Germany to keep Russia out of Rumania and Persia. Russia attacks Rumania first, but the Germans are able to get large oil deliveries as a compensation for loosing Rumania as trading partner - even more than they got IOTL.
- Malta, Cyprus and other places are conquered.
- From Libya, Germany expands towards Egypt and Free French territories.
- Lots of subs, torpedo boats, and small cruisers are built in the Med.
- The Italian weapons production is streamlined and updated to the most effective German weapons and ammunition.
- Japan doesn't declare war against the US as Russia is too much of a threat. Germany therefore also doesn't declare war, despite being provoked to.
1942
- With an effort comparable to the OTL attack against Russia, Egypt and the Middle East is conquered, as well as Sudan and other British possessions in the area.
- Russia starts the attack against Persia, thus entering the war against Britain and becoming part of the Axis.
- Oil now comes from Libya, too.
- British bombing becomes an annoyance. Germany knowing it's already pretty overstretched still avoids a war with the US.
- As there is less need for that many tanks, more ressources and money can be invested into planes, bombers, ships, subs, and so on - Britain also feels a little bit annoyed.
- Instead of being killed, the Jews are sent to Palestine. As there have been few deaths in the concentration camps yet, there even develops a friendly relationship. Many of the "2nd and 3rd degree Jews" also keep their Christian believes.
1943
- Russia is now fully occupied with Afghanistan and India, keeping that thread away from Germany and also keeping the US from declaring war against Germany. All those litttle t-34s easily overrun British defences in India.
- Germany expands further into Africa.
- The Vichy Republic is taken by Germany as IOTL, for the same reasons. That also adds Algeria and Tunesia to the German territory.
- Oil now flows freely towards Germany from North Africa and the Mideast. Britain is feeling the pinch.
- The u-boat war is much more deadly than IOTL, causing Britain lots of losses. Germany can even afford not to sink US ships to delay a US entry into the war.
- The British public cries for accepting any honorable peace offers.
1944
- Germany strikes a secret deal with Britain, Japan, and the US: Britain can keep India, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Persia, and South Africa (de facto). Other parts of Africa are shared between the remaining powers there. The US keeps anything it has, as well as control over Greenland and Iceland. Germany keeps continental Europe, most of north Africa, and the Middle East. Turkey stays neutral (?). Japan gets all of East Asia except the area around Australia. Russia will be attacked by the combined forces of Britain, Japan, and Germany. The US will support the British effort with weapons and ammunitions deliveries in exchange for the one or other British possession in the Americas. Any embargoes will be lifted. This time, the British are ready to accept. The US also agrees, due to the communist thread.
- Russia is attacked from all sides at once. Japan is still no problem for the Russians, but occupies enough troops to allow Germany to be successful. Britain finally manages to keep the Russians from advancing further into the remaining India. Logistical problems keep Russia from employing their T-34s fully. Germany advances slower than in the beginning of OTL's Barbarossa, but they advance. Canadian forces help Finland to advance from the north.
1945
- Russia gives up. It looses Karelia, the Ukraine, Poland, Persia, Afghanistan, India, and Pakistan. It keeps Mongolia, Sachalin, White Russia. China gets independent (including Russian occupied Manchuria).
- Germany gets free reign in continental Europe, North Africa, and Arabia. They incorporate Switzerland and later Spain, Portugal, Sweden, and Finland.
- America develops the bomb as IOTL, but doesn't have an enemy to use it against.
- The US becomes super power number one, Germany follows, then Britain, then (after recovering) Russia.