John Adams is reelected, Jefferson leads secession of Virginia from the Union

[Sirius]

I came across this factoid while reading Empire of Liberty, Oxford's entry in its US History series covering the period of the early republic (1787-1815). Apparently this idea was being bandied about in Republican circles in the latter half of Adam's presidency. From what I read, it seems like Jefferson might well have the sway to pull Virginia out of the union and bring Kentucky along, though likely no other state. One imagines the Union would quickly crush the rebellion; the New Army might have been disbanded in 1800, but Washington and Hamilton would surely given another army.

What happens next? I have a feeling the Federalists might write a new constitution to rid themselves of the stain of the Virginia plan. Madison wasn't as brazen as Jefferson, but he did involve himself in a 1799 push to assert the rights of states to nullify legislation (it was Jefferson, not Madison, who actually used that charged word, but you see the connection). Presumably such a constitution will give the federal government far more power, while seeking to tame popular power. I'm curious what forms that might take.

I could see Jefferson making further trouble if he managed to slip overseas after the rebellion and gain Napoleon's ear. What else? Does this impact the development of slave power in the US? Will we see another, sooner, rebellion?

 

[David T]

Jefferson would not have tried anything so foolish. Even if Adams had pulled out a narrow win in the Electoral College, the Republicans would have the satisfaction of knowing that they won control of the House and that the Sedition Act was about to expire. Attempting disunion would hardly have been worth the risk under such circumstances.

Moreover, Virginia would by no means be united. The General Ticket Law obscured the fact that Federalists had a majority in several electoral districts. https://books.google.com/books?id=agYzhC6LyJEC&pg=PA202

 

[Sirius]

I'll pull the quotes from that book after work. But Jefferson wasn't above acting hastily; he was frequently moved by his passions to all manner of unorthodox positions.

 

[Amadeus]

I came across this factoid while reading Empire of Liberty, Oxford's entry in its US History series covering the period of the early republic (1787-1815). Apparently this idea was being bandied about in Republican circles in the latter half of Adam's presidency. From what I read, it seems like Jefferson might well have the sway to pull Virginia out of the union and bring Kentucky along, though likely no other state. One imagines the Union would quickly crush the rebellion; the New Army might have been disbanded in 1800, but Washington and Hamilton would surely given another army.

What happens next? I have a feeling the Federalists might write a new constitution to rid themselves of the stain of the Virginia plan. Madison wasn't as brazen as Jefferson, but he did involve himself in a 1799 push to assert the rights of states to nullify legislation (it was Jefferson, not Madison, who actually used that charged word, but you see the connection). Presumably such a constitution will give the federal government far more power, while seeking to tame popular power. I'm curious what forms that might take.

I could see Jefferson making further trouble if he managed to slip overseas after the rebellion and gain Napoleon's ear. What else? Does this impact the development of slave power in the US? Will we see another, sooner, rebellion?

Jefferson had some extreme opinions, such as those expressed in the Virginia and Kentucky Resolutions, but he never called for outright secession. What would be the point of Virginia seceding, Jefferson establishing himself as President of the independent Republic of Virginia? He would look like a vain, power-hungry man so embittered by defeat that he decides to break up the Union. It's worth noting that Jefferson had Burr prosecuted for treason when he collaborated with Spain in an attempt to become the leader of an independent Louisiana territory, so this may shed light on Jefferson's views on such an action.

It's much more likely that Jefferson simply retires to Monticello and Madison is elected in 1804.