Japanese De-industrialization

Second Shogunate Era- Japanese History

Came up with this TL, tell me what you think:

August 10, 1945- The Japanese Government unconditionally surrenders to the Allied powers after the dual bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki with Atomic Weaponry. Most Americans are calling for blood at home, and with Truman at the helm, the public gets what they want. In the initial peace terms given to Japan, the United States and victorious allied powers will occupy the Japanese Home Islands for a period of no less than 15 years. Japan is to be totally de-industrialized and the Island of Hokkaido is to be given protectorate status under the United Nations due to the population of Ainu natives who, in the past, have been the worst treated group in Japan. By the year 1960, all foreign occupying troops will have evacuated Japanese soil, however, de-industrialization will be forced to continue until the year 1980. Japan will be limited to a 100,000-man standing army, no high command; the Air Force will be delegated to the victorious allies. Taiwan will be given to the Republic of China. Korea is to be formed into a sovereign government, and Manchuria is to be given independence from the Republic of China, against Chiang Kai Sheck's wishes. In return for Manchuria, the United States will forcibly disarm Mao Tse Tung's Communist Revolutionaries, and support the reconstruction of China's industry. Japan will pay indemnities of 10 Billion Dollars worth of Gold Bullion with a full and final payment due no later than 1990. The Soviet Union will receive the Sakhalin and Kurile Islands. The United States will be given Okinawa as a territory. The Marianas Islands are now US property as well.

September 1, 1945- The formal Japanese surrender is signed on the decks of the USS Enterprise in Tokyo Harbor. The fleet assembled in Tokyo Harbor is the largest fleet on Earth and is being used as a sign of American power to protect the now defeated Japan from Soviet aggression, and to begin the process of de-industrializing Japan.

September, 1945-January, 1948- The United States military, along with Chiang Kai Sheck’s Republic of China, end up fighting a three-year guerilla conflict with Mao Tse Tung’s Communist rebels in the countryside of China. By January, 1948, Mao has been killed in United States air strikes, and his rebels spread out to the four corners of China. The Communist movement in China is dead, and Chiang Kai Sheck can begin the long and arduous process of reconstruction. Also, this is the period of time taken to fully de-industrialize the Japanese home islands. With the end of de-industrialization, the Japanese Home Islands are back to where they were at the closing of the 18th Century: No industry, foreign soldiers occupying sovereign Japanese soil, and extreme xenophobia sweeping through the Japanese culture. It is in this time period that we also begin to see the recreation of the old Japanese way of life-the second rise of the “samurai” culture. Although the old family swords have mostly been destroyed, the few that could be smuggled away are serving as a base for many sword smiths in the countryside to begin anew with their ages old craft.

1948- With the end of de-industrialization, the numbers of occupying American troops have dropped from 500,000 in 1945, to just under 190,000 in 1948. Over the next three years, those numbers will drop once again to 50,000 where it will remain until the last foreign troops are evacuated in 1954 with the rise of the second shogunate era. It is at this time that Japanese politics, even though the Allies set up a pseudo-functioning democracy, totally dissolve and we see factions beginning to arise in politics more focused on securing power for themselves, and less with making Japanese democracy work. Many of these men are former members of the military who have bones to pick with those who they believe, betrayed Japan in its hour of victory and led to their final defeat at the hands of the “decadent west.”

1949- The Republic of Korea is formally recognized by the United Nations along with the Republic of Manchuria. Both governments, due to no occupying forces of the Soviet Union, are seen as “bulwarks of democracy” against the Soviet East. In 1949, the first of the new warlords in Japan rise after a year of declining voter turn out in the electoral districts, and the rumors of a new generation of ronin wandering the countryside killing those who oppose them at will. The occupying forces have abandoned the countryside, instead now garrison in what become known later on as “enclave” cities, choosing to stay in the cities where the population is less likely to kill them for being western.

1950- The first clash between warlords in Japan in over 150 years occurs between the forces of the Morikawa and the Suzuki Shogunate outside the western enclave city of Kobe. These two powers’ squabble occurred when three United States military officers began to play the two off against each other to get the best prices for smuggling western weapons into Japan for top dollar prices. The Morikawa and Suzuki forces, 10-20,000 men per side, ended up fighting for three days outside of Kobe with newly created swords, rifles, artillery, machine guns, and just about anything that could be used as a weapon. The reports of barbaric fighting outside Kobe reached the west and shocked many into disbelief, de-industrialization had done nothing to Japan but turn it back into squabbling feudal warlords. The United States Congress began calling for a return of heavy occupation of the home islands to end this before it spread out. The United Nations, in a close vote, denied the US request and informed them that Japan would be left to its own devices, with the final US pull out pushed forward to 1954, instead of 1960.

1951- The Morikawa forces enter the western enclave city of Kobe and declare the formation of the “Morikawa Shogunate” with the expressed purpose of unifying Japan under their military leadership. The Suzuki forces lay siege to Kobe, but end up failing as the Morikawa gain support from around the countryside. The Japanese Self-Defense Forces (JSSDF) attempt to intervene and put down the shogunate, but are soundly defeated when they too attempt to re-enter Kobe and are slaughtered. The JSSDF begins to side with other warlords rising on the home islands, including the Takahashi, Wantanabe, Yoshida, and Fujiwara Warlords who have taken the places of many of the democratic parties. Many western nations are now issuing travel warnings to Japan, stating that its chaotic state is too dangerous to risk visiting. The United States has pulled most military occupying forces back to Tokyo, Yokahama, Hiroshima and Nagasaki, along with the occupying forces of France, Great Britain, and the few Chinese forces taking part in the occupation. The Greater Kanto Region around Tokyo, it is feared, will explode into civil unrest and war before long as well.

1952- In Japan, this year has become known as the “Year of Sorrow” when Emperor Hirohito was assassinated by forces of the Suzuki Shogunate who see the emperor as nothing more than a tool for the western powers. With the death of Hirohito, his wife, and all children, the bloodline of the emperor has now passed to second and third cousins of the emperor, all of whom have taken sides in the growing conflict and are involved in the bid for the emperorship to gain power and prominence for the warlord whom they pledge allegiance, not the betterment of Japan.

1953-54- The Japanese Home Islands dissolve totally into anarchy and civil war. With the death of Hirohito and most of the royal family, there is no one legitimate claim to the throne of Edo; there are five, all with legitimate bloodlines and claims to the throne. In any other time, there would be an electorate convened to decide who has the rightful claim, but with the democratic Japanese government in shambles, the JSSDF already having taken sides in the conflict, and the population too taking sides, the only way to force your claim as emperor, is with arms. From here on in, Japan is officially in a state of civil war.

1954- The last occupying American forces are “pulled out” of Japan, when in reality they are downsized to just under 10,000, all centered around the American military base just outside of Tokyo. The rest of the world has begun to turn there back on Japan, seeing it as a lost cause. The Soviet Union however, sees Japan as an opportunity to force Communist ideology into an isolated civil conflict. The Soviet Union throws its support behind one of the lesser shogunate, the Maruyama Shogunate in Northern Honshu and in Hokkaido around the city of Sapporo and the cities of Akita and Aomori. Seeing this as a power bid, the United States throws its support behind the Suzuki Shogunate. With this, the last remnants of the Japanese democratic government totally dissolve and begin to break up and support their own shogunate.

List of Japanese Shogunate at the start of the “Second Shogunate Era” (1951-79):

Maruyama Shogunate- Northern Honshu and Hokkaido: Soviet Supported
Suzuki Shogunate- Central Honshu: United States, Great Britain, and French Supported
Watanabe Shogunate- Central and South-Western Honshu- No foreign support
Morikawa Shogunate- South, South-West Honshu and Northern Kyushu- No foreign support, however has a large chunk of the old JSSDF.
Sato Shogunate- Southern Honshu, centered on Hiroshima. Limited support from the Republic of India.
Miyagi Shogunate- Southern Kyushu centered on Kagoshima, more of a glorified gang from Okinawa than a real Shogunate, not seen as a major player in the Second Shogunate Era.
Yamamoto Shogunate- Central and North-West Kyushu centered on Nagasaki and Saga, limited support from the Republic of Korea.
Yamaguchi Shogunate- North-West Kyushu, in constant conflict with the Yamamoto Shogunate for control of the city of Saga.
Tanaka Shogunate- Shikoku Island under partial control of the Tanaka Shogunate, limited support from the Republic of Australia.
Mori Shogunate- City of Tokushima on Shikoku Island, and Wakayama in South-Central Honshu, limited support from the Republic of West Germany.
 
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List of Western Enclave Cities in the Home Islands and shogunate control (1954):

Tokyo- Suzuki Shogunate Control
Kobe- Morikawa Shogunate Control
Yokahama- Suzuki Shogunate Control
Kagoshima- Miyagi Shogunate Control
Hiroshima- Sato Shogunate Control
Nagasaki- Yamaguchi Shogunate Control
Kyoto- Morikawa Shogunate Control
Osaka- Morikawa Shogunate Control
Akita- Maruyama Shogunate Control
Nagoya- Suzuki Shogunate Control
Sapporo- Maruyama Shogunate Control

1954-57- Major period of war between the Suzuki, Maruyama, Watanabe, and Morikawa Shogunate over control of the non-western cities of Niigata, Toyama, Tottori, and Sendai, these cities are seen by the combatants as strategic points of entry into the home islands, as well as excellent areas to begin reconstruction of forms of industry far away from the prying eyes of the western powers. Tokyo, still partially occupied by the United States and allied powers, is much as it was at the end of the war. Parts of the city were just abandoned in place and left to the homeless and starving masses fleeing from the ravages of the new Shogunate armies.

With the destruction of the industry of Japan, many of the rifles left over from the end of the war had no replacement parts and thus had to be disposed of. Because of this, much of the fighting in the Second Shogunate Era devolved into hand-to-hand fighting with bayonet’s, newly forged swords, and even muskets in the non-western supported shogun armies. Foreign powers, the United States and Soviet Union in particular, kept their shogun well stocked with wartime surplus weapons no longer needed. The Maruyama Shogunate in particular was well stocked with war surplus T-34 Medium tanks no longer needed by the Soviet Union. The Suzuki Shogunate fielded old American built P-47 Thunderbolts and P-51 Mustangs retired at the dawn of the jet era. With Japan devolving into feudalism, any weaponry was needed; even obsolete weaponry could turn the tide for a shogun in his bid for power.

1957 (May)- The Suzuki Shogunate pushes north and captures the Maruyama-controlled Administrative District of Nagano. With control of Nagano, the Suzuki Shogunate now threatens the Toyama, Ishikawa, and Gifu Administrative districts. Should the Suzuki’s gain control of these districts; victory in the south is a guarantee. From control of the south, the Suzuki Shogunate then has the manpower necessary to eliminate the Maruyama Shogunate and re-unify the Home Islands.

1957 (August)- The Maruyama Shogunate pushes south and captures the Fukushima, and Niigata Administrative Districts, thus giving them a definite advantage against the northern flanks of the Suzuki Shogunate. In the south, the Sato Shogunate gains control over the port city of Tottori and Okayama, thus putting them in an excellent position to push on the Suzuki-controlled cities of Kobe, Kyoto, and Osaka, all western enclaves. With these western enclave cities, the Sato can begin to gain acceptance in the west, and gain more than verbal support from nations like the Republic of India, they can then give themselves legitimacy and perhaps purchase weapons shipments from the west, and gain an upper hand against the Suzuki and Maruyama in the North, Yamamoto, and Yamaguchi Shogunate in the south. It is at this time, that enclave cities become the most important pieces of real estate that a shogun can control.

It is also during this period of time that the final collapse of the Japanese economic system occurs. With the Yen no longer having any real value, and local representatives of larger Shogunates printing out their own money, Japanese society is forced to divert back to the barter system, rather than continue to use useless paper yen that have no value.
 
So a failed state this early...

Like OTL Somalia or Afghanistan. I wonder if this will have other consequences as well. The failed state is a rather recent phenomenon, as in early years the place would have been colonized. Will this set the scene for more failed states in the future? This could have bloody consequences for the rest of the third world.

What's happening in Germany?
 
Kidblast said:
So a failed state this early...

Like OTL Somalia or Afghanistan. I wonder if this will have other consequences as well. The failed state is a rather recent phenomenon, as in early years the place would have been colonized. Will this set the scene for more failed states in the future? This could have bloody consequences for the rest of the third world.

What's happening in Germany?

Germany's going to pretty much stick to OTL for this TL. Most of the important events are going to happen in the far east. For the next decade in Japan, think it goes from bad, to worse, to just plain destruction. Ten points to the first person who guesses how this situation can get any worse!
 
General_Paul said:
Germany's going to pretty much stick to OTL for this TL. Most of the important events are going to happen in the far east. For the next decade in Japan, think it goes from bad, to worse, to just plain destruction. Ten points to the first person who guesses how this situation can get any worse!

A shogun get a nuke? or maybe the Russians get deeply involved?
 
GP

What POD are you using for this scenario? Would have to be probably pre-45 as by the historical surrender data the soviets had most of Manchuria and were advancing into Korea.

The terms of the proposed treaty are very harsh and also contradictory. For instance how is Japan going to pay the proposed compensation when it has nothing to sell abroad? [No raw materials or food surpluses so without industry it is f****d]. Also, with a larger population and far less arable land than Germany, de-industrialisation as proposed would result in further mass starvation. That would be the case with a functioning government. With it collapsing into chaos and civil war the death toll would be much larger.

The other problem would be that the Cold War would almost certainly affected matters in terms of the two sides seeking to gain influence in Japan. Know this is happening in your scenario but think both sides would seek to establish influence over a united Japan. [Could see Russia making great capital from complaints about what the US dictated peace terms were doing to the helpless Japanese proletariat]. A suitable brutal US might try and impose such a treaty but I suspect it would come back to bite it in terms of the political reaction.

Steve
 

Straha

Banned
A nuclear armed samurai... man I'm sure the anime fans on this board are just creaming their pants at the thought of that.
 

Darkest

Banned
Man! This is one heck of a harsh treatment of the Japanese... poor guys.

Why must the imperialists always be cut down!?!?

This is actually a fascinating idea, not just for this scenario... What if it becomes standard that defeated aggressors recieve a 'de-industrialization sentence'? Borders are walled up, all machinery and industry shipped out of the country for others to use, and the populace left in a relatively primitive state? They are left isolated for a certain amount of time, until their aggressive behavior is bled out?

While the nations 'learn their lesson', the great powers play games with their people and land. They offer small prizes in order to get people to fight each other. They trade little bits of useful high-technology (too complicated to be replicated) in return for natural resources.

It would be hard to convince the world populace that this cruel practice is necessary. That's a different story. The idea is gold, though.
 

NapoleonXIV

Banned
What if the de-industrialization was benign? The victors step in and prevent starvation where necessary. They encourage and subsidize agriculture, handicrafts and tourism (which is nowadays the second largest industry in the world, at least so I hear, and what is the first btw, I have no idea?).

By 1960 we get my prosperous post-Morgenthau Germany, in Japan. (I think I'll take this idea over there too)
 
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