Japanese Christian population expelled to Spanish Taiwan or the Philippines

[walmart]

Could the Japanese Shogunate op to expel the Christian population of Japan to either Spanish Taiwan or the Philippines during the late 1500s and early 1600s.

How many people could possibility leave

Would Spain be willing to help resettle and how much help would they be

What would be the impact on the Spanish possessions

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Catholic_Church_in_Japan

 

[kasumigenx]

Taiwan is probable.

 

[Some Bloke]

Which would probably make TTL's Taiwan's demography completely unrecognisable after about a century?

 

[yoted17]

Taiwan is probable.

If it is Taiwan, then depending on exactly how effective the migration is and when exactly it takes place, you could have an island now with more Japanese-Catholic than non Japanese-Catholics. Before Dutch rule it’s estimated there was no more than a hundred thousand people living there, and there’s nearly 130,000 Japanese-Catholics there were at the height of the movement.

Spain didn’t gain territory on Taiwan until 1626 though, so let’s assume there around 100,000 or so living in Japan - and this is all throughout Japan, different social groups, economic groups, geographically. Let’s assume though, that somehow they all, or the vast vast majority are moved to Spanish Taiwan in 1630. Spain only controls the northern portion of Taiwan so initially the area will be dominated by Japanese-Catholics in population.

This population will presumably be fiercely loyal to Spain, in general, now, enough that when the Dutch took over OTL, they wouldn’t be able to deal with the overwhelming amount of Catholics if they take it in the first place.

After that, I don’t want to speculate on something that isn’t my area of expertise more than that. It sounds like something worth exploring though

 

[kasumigenx]

If it is Taiwan, then depending on exactly how effective the migration is and when exactly it takes place, you could have an island now with more Japanese-Catholic than non Japanese-Catholics. Before Dutch rule it’s estimated there was no more than a hundred thousand people living there, and there’s nearly 130,000 Japanese-Catholics there were at the height of the movement.

Spain didn’t gain territory on Taiwan until 1626 though, so let’s assume there around 100,000 or so living in Japan - and this is all throughout Japan, different social groups, economic groups, geographically. Let’s assume though, that somehow they all, or the vast vast majority are moved to Spanish Taiwan in 1630. Spain only controls the northern portion of Taiwan so initially the area will be dominated by Japanese-Catholics in population.

This population will presumably be fiercely loyal to Spain, in general, now, enough that when the Dutch took over OTL, they wouldn’t be able to deal with the overwhelming amount of Catholics if they take it in the first place.

After that, I don’t want to speculate on something that isn’t my area of expertise more than that. It sounds like something worth exploring though

It would help the Spanish hold taiwan.

 

[Skraea]

I believe a good portion of Japanese Christians did go to the Philippines. At least 3000 from what I've heard. Thing is,they mostly assimilated into the Filipino population as a whole.

 

[kasumigenx]

I think the area in the PH where the Japanese can settle is Manila area and Cebu, Luzon is volatile due to the fact that the spanish only conquered only the coasts of Northern Luzon until 1800s and the other areas of Luzon are unstable.

 

[Pelranius]

The Philippines is a more attractive destination.

 

[jb3]

I believe a good portion of Japanese Christians did go to the Philippines. At least 3000 from what I've heard. Thing is,they mostly assimilated into the Filipino population as a whole.

If they go to the Phillipines they assimilate into the population, BUT if they go to Taiwan we could see a mixed Spanish-Japanese state arising (the cultural mix would be VERY interesting) and the demographics (if left in peace for a hundred years or two) might be insane. A 100,000 Japanese Catholics (many of whom were cultured and literate) in 1600, backed by Spain, reproducing at typical Euro-Catholic rates in the same period, in Taiwan can turn into a million or more by 1800.

 

[Datu Buwan]

Actually some Japanese Christians DID flee to the Philippines from persecution. The most famous was Daimyo Dom Justo Takayama!

https://filipiknow.net/philippines-first-refugees/

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2...apans-christian-feudal-warlord-takayama-ukon/

How it would impact the Philippines if they expelled every Japanese Christians would to Philippines result in Manila becoming a major population center for Christians Japanese. A much stronger population in Manila would have Japanese Ancestry too. OTL Japanese traders did come to the Philippines and assimilate so the number of Filipinos in the Manila area would have more Japanese ancestry. I also imagine also that some cultural elements that the Japanese Christians bring would syncretize and become a part of Philippine culture. Also Spain could employ Japanese Christian Samurais for the pacification of Philippine islands.

Now i find the idea of them going to Taiwans to be interesting as well. Spain could use the Japanese Christians as vanguard for the conquest island, perhaps create a Christian/Hispano-Japanese colony on island...

 

[kasumigenx]

If they go to the Phillipines they assimilate into the population, BUT if they go to Taiwan we could see a mixed Spanish-Japanese state arising (the cultural mix would be VERY interesting) and the demographics (if left in peace for a hundred years or so) might be insane. A 100,000 Japanese Catholics (many of whom were culture and literate) in 1600, backed by Spain, reproducing at typical Euro-Catholic rates in the same period, in Taiwan can turn into a million or more by 1800.

Actually some Japanese Christians DID flee to the Philippines from persecution. The most famous was Daimyo Dom Justo Takayama!

https://filipiknow.net/philippines-first-refugees/

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2...apans-christian-feudal-warlord-takayama-ukon/

How it would impact the Philippines if they expelled every Japanese Christians would to Philippines result in Manila becoming a major population center for Christians Japanese. A much stronger population in Manila would have Japanese Ancestry too. OTL Japanese traders did come to the Philippines and assimilate so the number of Filipinos in the Manila area would have more Japanese ancestry. I also imagine also that some cultural elements that the Japanese Christians bring would syncretize and become a part of Philippine culture. Also Spain could employ Japanese Christian Samurais for the pacification of Philippine islands.

Now i find the idea of them going to Taiwans to be interesting as well. Spain could use the Japanese Christians as vanguard for the conquest island, perhaps create a Christian/Hispano-Japanese colony on island...

That is my point, they would assimilate into the local population if they migrated to the Philippines like what happened to the Merdicas from Ternate, which can end up as a liability.

Merdicas were sent from ternate but they failed so no, they did not increase the spanish territories.

The best case scenario for the expelled Japanese would be settling to Taiwan.

 

[Sumeo]

Even though it's probably centuries in the future. I wonder how Japan would react to a Spanish-Japanese Catholic population who probably view themselves as different from the mainland and probably a healthy does of animosity that make up the majority of this Taiwan.

Since Taiwan was one of Japan imperial ambition. How often would they revolt against their cousin's. Will they form their own nation or would said Spanish-Japanese be expelled from Taiwan and back to Japan even though they have lived their for generations.

 

[Kaze]

Taiwan is probable.

The problem with Taiwan is that it will be crushed in the aftermath of the fall of the Ming and the Revolt of the Three Feuditories - so I would say the Japanese Christians lot will not be a happy one.

If I was going to send them somewhere I would go with Hokkaido - have them push out the Ainu (sorry) and make them Japanese.

 

[Namayan]

I think the question here is how many Japanese migrants out of 100,000 are militarized, brought katanas, muskets, weaponry. Or do you want full civilian.

Full Civilian they either assimilate or get massacred by the Spanish much like OTL 1603 Sangley Revolt.

10,000 out of 100,000 brings muskets and katanas, suddenly the power shifts in favor of the Japanese migrants to the point that the Spanish might get expelled.

The Spanish Census is 166k++ in 1591. Limited to lowland Luzon and Visayas. Census is base on tribute. While the estimated population is around 666k++, Spanish estimated a family of 4, 166k times 4.

The Spanish did say 14,000 Spaniards did go to the Philippines initially from 1570s to 1590s, 13,000 died due to tropical climate/weather. Any resistance is down to 1000 Spanish and any loyal locals. But the question is if the Spanish willing to arm the 166k++ as that can turn into them also.

 

[Dan1988]

Which would probably make TTL's Taiwan's demography completely unrecognisable after about a century?

In a way, yes, but it depends on how you look at it. We can also have some fun here. During the European colonization period, the Dutch tended towards southern Formosa (we can use that term here), centered around what we now call Tainan. The Spanish, OTOH, tended towards northern Formosa, centered around Keelung. (How do you say "Holy Savior" in Japanese or in Taiwanese, since that's the literal translation of <San Salvador>?) While you'd have some Han migration to Formosa regardless (though it can be more of a mix than OTL), the only real way to get completely unrecognizable demographics is to keep people like Koxinga from crossing the Taiwan Strait. Keeping a Spanish presence in northern Formosa would also help - though if the Dutch still conquer it from the Spanish as per OTL, it would be interesting to see how Catholicism would survive solely through the medium of Japanese. In that case you have 2-3 major cultural regions on Formosa itself - Aboriginal Formosa, obviously, but also Catholic Northern Formosa and Protestant Southern Formosa.

 

[kasumigenx]

I think the question here is how many Japanese migrants out of 100,000 are militarized, brought katanas, muskets, weaponry. Or do you want full civilian.

Full Civilian they either assimilate or get massacred by the Spanish much like OTL 1603 Sangley Revolt.

10,000 out of 100,000 brings muskets and katanas, suddenly the power shifts in favor of the Japanese migrants to the point that the Spanish might get expelled.

The Spanish Census is 166k++ in 1591. Limited to lowland Luzon and Visayas. Census is base on tribute. While the estimated population is around 666k++, Spanish estimated a family of 4, 166k times 4.

The Spanish did say 14,000 Spaniards did go to the Philippines initially from 1570s to 1590s, 13,000 died due to tropical climate/weather. Any resistance is down to 1000 Spanish and any loyal locals. But the question is if the Spanish willing to arm the 166k++ as that can turn into them also.

What I pointed out is that the Christian Japanese migrants to the Philippines would end up just like the Merdicas from Ternate.

The only fun POD I think is for the Pagans not to retreat due to Famine in the Philippines in the late 18th century to 19th century but flourish which would mean regardless of any ruler in Spain, Spain would be forced to sell/cede off Luzon in the early 19th century due to the Spanish finding them a headache, expensive and possibly also due to the failure of the Tabacco Monopoly because the Spanish were not able to get the upper reaches of Agno(Tarlac), Cagayan(Upper Isabela and Nueva Vizcaya) and Pampanga river(Nueva Ecija), the Spanish only have the coastal and near coastal regions of Luzon before that Famine and the Pagans don't recognize the Spanish in any shape or form and this POD is a certain and established POD.

In a way, yes, but it depends on how you look at it. We can also have some fun here. During the European colonization period, the Dutch tended towards southern Formosa (we can use that term here), centered around what we now call Tainan. The Spanish, OTOH, tended towards northern Formosa, centered around Keelung. (How do you say "Holy Savior" in Japanese or in Taiwanese, since that's the literal translation of <San Salvador>?) While you'd have some Han migration to Formosa regardless (though it can be more of a mix than OTL), the only real way to get completely unrecognizable demographics is to keep people like Koxinga from crossing the Taiwan Strait. Keeping a Spanish presence in northern Formosa would also help - though if the Dutch still conquer it from the Spanish as per OTL, it would be interesting to see how Catholicism would survive solely through the medium of Japanese. In that case you have 2-3 major cultural regions on Formosa itself - Aboriginal Formosa, obviously, but also Catholic Northern Formosa and Protestant Southern Formosa.

Even though it's probably centuries in the future. I wonder how Japan would react to a Spanish-Japanese Catholic population who probably view themselves as different from the mainland and probably a healthy does of animosity that make up the majority of this Taiwan.

Since Taiwan was one of Japan imperial ambition. How often would they revolt against their cousin's. Will they form their own nation or would said Spanish-Japanese be expelled from Taiwan and back to Japan even though they have lived their for generations.

The problem with Taiwan is that it will be crushed in the aftermath of the fall of the Ming and the Revolt of the Three Feuditories - so I would say the Japanese Christians lot will not be a happy one.

If I was going to send them somewhere I would go with Hokkaido - have them push out the Ainu (sorry) and make them Japanese.

Japanese settlement of Taiwan would butterfly Koxinga.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

I'm not sure they'd simply assimilate if they went to the Philippines. If enough of them go they may just form their own tight nit communities. If they stay in Spain's good graces they may end up as an administrative class, in which case remaining "Japanese" may be a matter of prestige.

 

[Gintoki Sakata]

Well, for my Portuguese Empire TL I am planning to have Formosa become an Overseas Province that is half Japanese in the North and half Luzonese in the South, plus Japan will be ruled by the Oda Shogunate. I'm thinking about these two options.

• Kyushu and OTL Yamaguchi prefecture as Catholic parts of Japan, + Northern Formosa as a Portuguese colony for Japanese Catholics
• A future successor to Oda Nobunaga still imposes sakoku (but it's less severe than the OTL one) where Catholics are confined to certain cities like Nagasaki and Yamaguchi, and many of them moved to the Portuguese colonies of Formosa and Luzon as a result.

Portuguese Luzon's overseas Nikkei community (mostly centered at Tondo/Manila) will eventually become a distinct economic class similar to the OTL Chinese Filipinos.

 

[Dan1988]

I'm not sure they'd simply assimilate if they went to the Philippines. If enough of them go they may just form their own tight nit communities. If they stay in Spain's good graces they may end up as an administrative class, in which case remaining "Japanese" may be a matter of prestige.

In that case, the Chinese community in the Philippines could provide a possible example. On some level they've managed to preserve their culture, traditions, and their traditional spoken varieties (even as Mandarin is being imposed on them) and all while in a Philippine social, cultural, and historical context.

 

[Pelranius]

In that case, the Chinese community in the Philippines could provide a possible example. On some level they've managed to preserve their culture, traditions, and their traditional spoken varieties (even as Mandarin is being imposed on them) and all while in a Philippine social, cultural, and historical context.

Not to mention that a lot of Filipinos, like the Thai, have some level of Chinese ancestry in the background.