The same arrangements as August 15, 1945 of OTL,It depends would the United States be willing to remove the unconditional surrender from the table, also what would the future of Korea and Taiwan be.
Except Korea will be all US occupied and Manchuria will be under ROC control and not Soviet and later PRC.The same arrangements as August 15, 1945 of OTL,
Except Korea will be all US occupied and Manchuria will be under ROC control and not Soviet and later PRC.
Sounds like that’s what OP is thinking based on an earlier reply. Japan is occupied, loses all her colonies, must totally reform the government, and has no more armed forces outside of the Self-Defense Forces. Sizable suspension of disbelief for the timeframe but it seems the idea is more what to do if it happened.And those approx. Five to Six US Marine Divisions available in the Pacific...
Plus One Parachute Division ...
If Japan does surrender conditionally with the Emperor allow to stay on the throne while as a Constitutional Imperial Emperor and he is able to stifle all Army hotheads to obey his orders to the conditional surrender...
Will America demand that Imperial Japan be occupied and by how many units of the US Armed Forces...
Sounds like that’s what OP is thinking based on an earlier reply. Japan is occupied, loses all her colonies, must totally reform the government, and has no more armed forces outside of the Self-Defense Forces. Sizable suspension of disbelief for the timeframe but it seems the idea is more what to do if it happened.
So there's going to be a stabbed-in-the-back-myth instead.Expect Japan to not portray itself as something of a victim later on as well. Their cities aren’t reduced to cinders from fire-bombing (the Tokyo raid especially as that event was what solidified defeat was inevitable to the emperor) as well as no city being nuked.
Quite likely considering this is before the Marianas, Iwo Jima, and Leyte Gulf.So there's going to be a stabbed-in-the-back-myth instead.
The other long term effects include what to do with Karafuto, southern Sakhalin, and the Kuril Islands. First off without fighting Japan then Russia might not get these territories back. Southern Karafuto gives Japan a land border with Russia and control of some or all of the Kurils turns the Sea of Okhotsk into more of a contested territory compared to what it was during the Cold War.
Quite likely considering this is before the Marianas, Iwo Jima, and Leyte Gulf.
1. Agreed, which may result in a ww 3 between US/USSRSome things are going to be different following this POD.
1. No A-bomb dropped on Hiroshima & Nagasaki --> less clear understanding of the effects of the A-bomb and perhaps less reluctancy to use it in combat.
2. The biggest butterfly will be China and its future as well as Korea.
3. I wonder if there will be any effect of the 20. July coup against Hitler, which is 10 days after Japan's surrender.
IMO the only way to get a surrender that early is to get a coup by probably the IJN, who then convince the Emperor to give such a speech.
That's STILL unlikely to work, as the IJA would almost certainly counter-coup, but at least it's vaguely possible.
Until you remember how much the IJN and IJA hated each other. Such a battle would be... nasty.
Well if Japan sues for peace on July the 10th, there is a possible effect of more the idea of a coup becoming more popular? Realizing that all the resources of the US will now be funelled towards Germany may be the "push" some needed to side with Stauffenberg and his colleagues? The time frame is however very short, merely 10 days. It will take months for the effects of a Japanese defeat to be noticed in Europe.3. Probably not, I can't see how it could effect it.