I was reading The Japanese Discovery of Europe, 1720-1830 by Donald Keene and was especially fascinated by Japan-Russia contacts which happened before the Meiji Restoration. One thing which especially interested me was Adam Laxman's expedition to Ezo in 1792. While Laxman was spending his time in Ezo, the Japanese government was trying frantically to decide what to do. They had three different options:
1. To tell Russians leave at once.
2. To let them trade in Ezo.
3. Ask them to negotiate in Nagasaki.
Option 3 actually was the one chosen and Keene thinks that there was a real possibility that Russians would have got trade rights if they have gone to Nagasaki immediately. Unfortunately Laxman didn't want to go beyond the limits of his authorisation and went back to Russia while the Japanese were waiting him in Nagasaki and wondering why the journey from Ezo to Nagasaki takes so long. Russians came back in 1804 led by Captain Krusenstern but more conservative forces had more power in the government now and Russians were sent away.
So, WI thing have gone differently? There are actually three PODs here. 1. Laxman sails to Nagasaki, and Russians get trade rights in 1792. 2. Ezo is opened to Russian trade. 3. The Japanese are more open towards Krusenstern and give Russians trade rights in 1804.
1. and 3. would make Russia the fourth nation with a permit to enter Nagasaki which would be a rather important step. (In addition to China and the Netherlands also Cambodia had been awarded that right in 1727 but their efforts in trade there have been an utter failure.) I would assume that other powers, especially the UK, would have more interest in Japan if Russians are already trading there. Japanese scholars would also get possibly more European literature and the Japanese would have somewhat better understanding of Russia. It's not surprising that especially Rangaku ("Dutch/Western learning") scholars supported trade rights for Russians.
2. could be the worst one for the Japanese in a long term if/when Russia starts to move its focus towards Asia.
1. To tell Russians leave at once.
2. To let them trade in Ezo.
3. Ask them to negotiate in Nagasaki.
Option 3 actually was the one chosen and Keene thinks that there was a real possibility that Russians would have got trade rights if they have gone to Nagasaki immediately. Unfortunately Laxman didn't want to go beyond the limits of his authorisation and went back to Russia while the Japanese were waiting him in Nagasaki and wondering why the journey from Ezo to Nagasaki takes so long. Russians came back in 1804 led by Captain Krusenstern but more conservative forces had more power in the government now and Russians were sent away.
So, WI thing have gone differently? There are actually three PODs here. 1. Laxman sails to Nagasaki, and Russians get trade rights in 1792. 2. Ezo is opened to Russian trade. 3. The Japanese are more open towards Krusenstern and give Russians trade rights in 1804.
1. and 3. would make Russia the fourth nation with a permit to enter Nagasaki which would be a rather important step. (In addition to China and the Netherlands also Cambodia had been awarded that right in 1727 but their efforts in trade there have been an utter failure.) I would assume that other powers, especially the UK, would have more interest in Japan if Russians are already trading there. Japanese scholars would also get possibly more European literature and the Japanese would have somewhat better understanding of Russia. It's not surprising that especially Rangaku ("Dutch/Western learning") scholars supported trade rights for Russians.
2. could be the worst one for the Japanese in a long term if/when Russia starts to move its focus towards Asia.
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