Japan and Korea as Equals

[Rekjavik]

What would have to be done so that Japan and Korea are of near equal power, or at least the conquest of one or the other would be too difficult to be practical for the invader?

In many timelines I have seen it seems that Japan almost always takes over Korea. I find that is not necessarily the case, it was only comparatively recently that Japan managed to gain a dominant edge over Korea. What if, instead of Japanese dominion, the Koreans gather enough strength to be able to prevent the Japanese, or its neighbours for that matter, from taking it over.

Obviously China and Russia will be big problems. China could fall into a similar disarray as it fell into OTL at the turn of the century and Russia might not necessarily make it as far as the Pacific. The Japanese also opened themselves to the West, in any meaningful sense I mean, earlier than the Koreans, so perhaps a Korean Meiji Restoration occuring at a similar time, not impossible, could save the peninsula.

On thing of interest might be the Japanese and Koreans looking for aid from outside sources. For the sake of an example let us say that the Japanese sign a treaty with the British, providing military assistance and arms trade. The Koreans might respond by singing a similar treaty with the French or Spanish. How might this international dynamic affect the development of the Far East?

What do you think?

 

[Seraph]

This is actually something I've looked into for more personal reasons.

Korea did have a strong leader that attempted to modernize Korea. Empress Myeongseong, also known has Queen Min, opposed Japanese influence and sought closer ties with Russia(and United States based on whats written about her in wikipedia). With her assassination(her husband was left broken and wasn't trained in ruling the country), it lay open the path for Japanese influence to slow take over the country.

If she wasn't assassinated 1895, I believe it is likely Korea would be a major Asian land power that allied(at least, attempts to) with the United States(being a major Pacific naval power) after Russia's defeat in the Russian-Japanese War(presuming it result the same)

 

[B_Munro]

If she wasn't assassinated 1895, I believe it is likely Korea would be a major Asian land power that allied(at least, attempts to) with the United States(being a major Pacific naval power) after Russia's defeat in the Russian-Japanese War(presuming it result the same)

Japan had nearly four times Korea's population at the time and several decades start on modernization: no way Korea is going to be strong enough to hold off Japan by 1904, unless Queen Min is a combination of Wonder Woman and Agatha Hetrodyne (http://www.girlgeniusonline.com/comic.php), so they definitely need allies. I doubt Russia would be at all enthusiastic about the US or the UK making a protectorate of Korea, and I'm not sure why they would want to antagonize Russia by doing so. A Russian protectorate combined with a Russian victory in an alt-Russo-Japanese war might have some possibilities. But we need to keep Japan at bay for at least a generation for any modernizing effort to take sufficient effect to make Korea strong enough to cease being a Japanese target - I mean, it's just so clooose, and temptiiiing....


Bruce

 

[Seraph]

I didn't say that Korea would be able to hold out on her own. Now I've read that Korea was undergoing modernization at a pace faster then Japan had done and does have the terrain in her favour(though still underdog).
An ally would likely be seen as crucial as Queen Min courted the Russians to help counter the Japanese. United States may have stepped in if(IF) the Russians still lose Russo-Japanese War and Korea is able to put strong enough influence on the US.

 

[B_Munro]

I didn't say that Korea would be able to hold out on her own. Now I've read that Korea was undergoing modernization at a pace faster then Japan had done and does have the terrain in her favour(though still underdog).

Terrain helps, but the way I understand it Japanese and Chinese meddling plus local conservative forces had largely stymied serious reform before 1895. Do you have any references in mind? Korea did modernize very fast after WWII, but I've never heard that reform managed to get up much _practical_ steam (although there were certainly a lot of sparks 1895-1904) before Japanese supremacy was established.

An ally would likely be seen as crucial as Queen Min courted the Russians to help counter the Japanese. United States may have stepped in if(IF) the Russians still lose Russo-Japanese War and Korea is able to put strong enough influence on the US.

What sort of influence did they have to put?

Bruce

 

[Seraph]

Sadly, most of I know comes from Wikipedia. Finding information from other sources is rather difficult. Queen Min did have contend with Japanese meddling and local conservative forces. She was doing good enough job that Japanese felt they needed to remove her.

As for getting United States involved is more difficult I'll admit and more speculation on my part. Relations between US and Japan are untrusting and US does want to keep China open for trade(if Japan is seen as trying to take over China with Korea as a stepping stone...). And Queen Min's article on wikipedia notes major efforts to in gaining American's help in modernizing the country. Its possible a more solid policy by the United States regarding Korea may be needed as well. The Chemulpo Treaty of 1882 had US recogized Corea(Korea's name at the time) as fully indepentant country. http://www.asianresearch.org/articles/1462.html

And some Koreans appear to have interpreted the treaty between the US and Korea as providing for common defense. I'll have to search the web for where I saw that.

 

[democracy101]

You didn't set a definite range for the scenario to work, so I'm going to present quite a few scenarios.

Around 100-650 AD, Korea was divided into three (technically four) kingdoms, which were Goguryeo, Baekje, Silla, and Gaya (which was not considered a kingdom for several centuries). Goguryeo controlled about 1/4-1/2 of Manchuria and the northern Korean Peninsula, while the other three kingdoms occupied the southern Korean Peninsula. Although Japan was not as stable an entity as those Korean kingdoms, they still had a very loose form of government, and had emperors/kings.

Goguryeo or Baekje could have easily conquered Japan if they had seen the need for it, but because Japan was a collection of islands that were significantly far off from Korea, they decided not to bother, and Baekje actually ended up allying with Japan for a significant period of time, and when Baekje fell to the Silla-Tang alliance, there was a brief attempt at restoring the kingdom, which was led by a combination of Baekje and Silla troops. However, they failed, and Silla ended up uniting the peninsula at around 660-668, although Balhae was founded after Goguryeo's downfall, and Silla never technically unified the peninsula, because Balhae still retained all of Goguryeo's territories, and actually expanded into what we now consider Russia's Far East.

If Gwanggaeto the Great, who greatly expanded Goguryeo's territory, had united the peninsula at around 400, but not invade Japan, then Korea might have managed to remain united until about 1000-1400, and theoretically, Japan would never have managed to attempt to invade Korea, meaning that Japan potentially could have been much weaker and Korea would have been much stronger than in OTL.

Because we're not interested in whether Korea would have been able to subjugate Japan, let's fast forward to the late 1500's, considering that every other event before that preceeded as in OTL. During that time, Korea was very weak in terms of the military (at the beginning of the Imjin War, Korea had only about 84,000 soldiers) because they did not have a consolidated army. Japan, on the other hand, had recently been unified under Toyotomy Hideyoshi, so they had a massive army (numbering about a million, give or take) and a reasonably strong navy. Japan could have easily overrun the entire peninsula and made Korea into a colony, judging from the almost complete annhilation of the Korean army and a de facto Japanese rule of the Korean peninsula (not to mention the thousands of ears that Japan brought to their temple to prove how many Korean soldiers they captured) and even possibly invade China to bring a significant portion of it under Japan's control. However, Yi Sun-shin, who had a very unprepared and undermanned army, managed to repel the Japanese army by utilizing the geography and his superior tactics, which effectively crippled the Japanese on land. In fact, in the Battle of Myeongnyang, the Korean navy numbered barely 13 ships, while the Japanese navy possessed 333 ships altogether. Yi Sun-shin, however, managed to all but destroy the Japanese fleet by effectively disabling about 100 ships, while losing no ships and having only 5 casulties on his side. In other words, Yi Sun-shin was the only person that basically prevented Japan from winning both wars (Hideyoshi led two invasions).

However, this does not take into consideration the situation that had been developing before the war, and that almost no one even bothers to consider. Yi I, a prominent Confucian scholar who lived from 1536-84, advised King Seonjo to raise about 100,000 Korean troops, stationed all over the Korean peninsula, in preparation for a Japanese invasion. Because the king was incompetent and only listened to his more "trusted" advisors, he ignored his plea, and the scholar soon died only eight years before the Japanese invasion. Had the king realized the dire situation that Korea was in at the time, then Korea would have ended up preparing about 100,000-500,000 troops, and although the army would still have been outnumbered, they would still have been able to effectively repel the Japanese invasion, because the navy wasn't much of a problem.

Now that we know how Korea might have prevented the Imjin War, which Japan would not have been able to win unless Yi Sun-shin was either executed, which came extremely close to becoming a reality in OTL, or even killed during (not right after, as in OTL) the war, it's pretty reasonable to assume that with a few other tweaks, Korea and Japan would have remained equal until today. This would be achieved if Yi Sun-shin had not died at the conclusion of the Imjin War, or the Heungseon Daewongun, or any other member of the royal family, had decided to modernize more quickly than in OTL. Either or both of these scenarios would have led to a much more militarized and westernized Korea, and they would have been able to revoke or not even sign the unequal treaties that were forced upon them by Japan.

All this is very quickly worded out, but if you take all of these into consideration, then Korea and Japan might have been considered as equal, rather than Japan as "superior." Of course, all this means that WWI and WWII would have turned out to be very different, but that's another story.

I hope all of this extrapolation helps.

 

[Seraph]

@democracy101
interesting ideas. Maybe add in a greater value given to the military? Chinese cultural thought didn't value the warrior much which passed to Korea. A valued role in in the country for the warrior(like the Japanese Samurai) may be needed to keep Korea on par. I don't know Korean history before the 19th century very much however.

 

[democracy101]

@democracy101
interesting ideas. Maybe add in a greater value given to the military? Chinese cultural thought didn't value the warrior much which passed to Korea. A valued role in in the country for the warrior(like the Japanese Samurai) may be needed to keep Korea on par. I don't know Korean history before the 19th century very much however.

Thank you.

Korea did pay attention to the military from about 300-600, while Japan was still struggling to form a firm government, but it faded away after Silla "unified" the Korean peninsula, because the ruling elite were more focused on Confucianism ideals and on politics rather than on wars, so a samurai-ish situation was basically non-existent by the time that Japan invaded Korea in the late 1500's.

If Goguryeo had managed to unite the Korean kingdoms and had firmly taken control of Manchuria, then they would have probably focused more on the military, although it can't be said for certain to what extent that this would have occurred because Goguryeo had a strong Buddhist foundation (and minor Confucianism), and no country that truly believed in Buddhism was really devoted to the military (for example, Japan was mostly Shintoist with Buddhist elements mixed in here and there, and although there were quite a few Indian rulers who espoused Buddhism, Buddhism basically ceased to exist in India because of Hinduism and Islam).

 

[chornedsnorkack]

Around 100-650 AD, Korea was divided into three (technically four) kingdoms, which were Goguryeo, Baekje, Silla, and Gaya (which was not considered a kingdom for several centuries). Goguryeo controlled about 1/4-1/2 of Manchuria and the northern Korean Peninsula, while the other three kingdoms occupied the southern Korean Peninsula. Although Japan was not as stable an entity as those Korean kingdoms,

I do not see Japan being any less stable.

Goguryeo or Baekje could have easily conquered Japan if they had seen the need for it, but because Japan was a collection of islands that were significantly far off from Korea, they decided not to bother,

No, they could not. They could not even conquer Silla.

and Silla never technically unified the peninsula, because Balhae still retained all of Goguryeo's territories,

How about the capital, Pyongyang?

If Gwanggaeto the Great, who greatly expanded Goguryeo's territory, had united the peninsula at around 400, but not invade Japan, then Korea might have managed to remain united until about 1000-1400, and theoretically, Japan would never have managed to attempt to invade Korea, meaning that Japan potentially could have been much weaker and Korea would have been much stronger than in OTL.

Korea would have been stronger; but why would Japan have been weaker?

Korea did pay attention to the military from about 300-600, while Japan was still struggling to form a firm government, but it faded away after Silla "unified" the Korean peninsula, because the ruling elite were more focused on Confucianism ideals and on politics rather than on wars, so a samurai-ish situation was basically non-existent by the time that Japan invaded Korea in the late 1500's.

If Goguryeo had managed to unite the Korean kingdoms and had firmly taken control of Manchuria, then they would have probably focused more on the military, although it can't be said for certain to what extent that this would have occurred because Goguryeo had a strong Buddhist foundation (and minor Confucianism), and no country that truly believed in Buddhism was really devoted to the military

Korea did have a samurai-ish time.

In mid-12th century, both Koryo and Japan were ruled by civilian aristocrats who despised military.

Both had military coups - Japan in 1156, Korea in 1170.

After some infighting between military, the power wound up with Choe family in Korea and Hojo family in Japan.

In Koryo, Choe were overthrown by civil aristocracy in 1258. In Japan, Hojo were overthrown, but civilians could not keep power, so one group of samurai after another ruled all the way till 1945.

 

[democracy101]

I do not see Japan being any less stable.

I meant in terms of the military, not in terms of politics or the government. In other words, had Goguryeo (at its height) and Japan decided to engage in a full-scale war, Japan would have been quickly run over because although Japan did have a significant navy, they lacked a reasonably trained army. Goguryeo, on the other hand, probably possessed one of the most experienced armies and navies (at the time) in East Asia, if not the world, under Gwanggaeto and Jangsu, in terms of both the size and the training involved.

No, they could not. They could not even conquer Silla.

There's a clear difference between being a kingdom unable to conquer another kingdom because they simply were unable to, and a kingdom not conquering another because they saw no use for it.

In the case between Goguryeo and Silla, it's the latter, because although Gwanggaeto or Jangsu clearly could have completely conquered Silla with little problems, they decided not to because Silla (in the 400's) was weak enough as it was already to be considered as a "tributary" state to Goguryeo. In fact, Silla even requested Gwanggaeto for help in driving out the Japanese from the coast, and he did so effeciently. As a result of Silla acting as a buffer state between Goguryeo and Japann during the time, the two Goguryeo leaders decided to leave the country alone and focus on conflicts with Chinese kingdoms instead. Had either of the two decided to completely absorb Silla into Goguryeo, they would have done so after one of them conquered Baekje and possibly Gaya. Therefore, by then, the Korean peninsula would have been united, which would have meant that there would have been a premature end to the "Three" Kingdoms era, and the subsequent history would have been very different.

So in other words, if either Gwanggaeto or Jangsu had decided to unite the Korean peninsula, they could have done so with very minimal cost, and therefore would be in a strong position to threaten Japan's national security, because that country would have lost its ties to Baekje.

How about the capital, Pyongyang?

I meant that Balhae held most of the territory that Goguryeo once had (not that Balhae necessarily held most of the Korean peninsula), and even expanded its territorial possessions into the modern-day Russian Far East.

Korea would have been stronger; but why would Japan have been weaker?

A significant number of the Japanese clans by 815 had roots in China and the Korean kingdoms. Out of the 1182 clans reported, 174 were from China, 120 were from Baekje, 48 were from Goguryeo, and 17 were from Silla. So in total, about 359 out of 1182 clans in Japan were of foreign descent. In other words, this means that a significant number of people must have immigrated from China and the Korean kingdoms to Japan from 200 to 700 AD. Of course, it's hard to say exactly how much of the entire Japanese population was of foreign descent, but if Goguryeo had decided to and succeeded in uniting the Korean peninsula, then it would be reasonable to assume that the flow of immigration from Korea to Japan would have been cut off significantly in the 400's. In other words, ATL Japan's population by 800 would have been significantly lower that that of OTL, meaning that the structure of the government would have been much more loose, because the security of the government usually depends on the masses, which would only consist of 2-3 million (ATL) instead of 4-6 million (OTL), considering that the OTL Japanese population in 400 only consisted of about 1.5 million.

I hope that makes sense.

Korea did have a samurai-ish time.

In mid-12th century, both Koryo and Japan were ruled by civilian aristocrats who despised military.

Both had military coups - Japan in 1156, Korea in 1170.

After some infighting between military, the power wound up with Choe family in Korea and Hojo family in Japan.

In Koryo, Choe were overthrown by civil aristocracy in 1258. In Japan, Hojo were overthrown, but civilians could not keep power, so one group of samurai after another ruled all the way till 1945.

True, but I highly doubt that the military would have become a significant component of Korean culture, unlike Japan, unless Korea had decided to make a conscious choice to expand, and therefore fight more battles. This, theoretically, would only have been achieved if Goguryeo had become more expansive and decided to unite the Korean peninsula, dominate all of Manchuria, and possibly conquer Japan and North China.

 

[chornedsnorkack]

There's a clear difference between being a kingdom unable to conquer another kingdom because they simply were unable to, and a kingdom not conquering another because they saw no use for it.

In the case between Goguryeo and Silla, it's the latter, because although Gwanggaeto or Jangsu clearly could have completely conquered Silla with little problems, they decided not to because Silla (in the 400's) was weak enough as it was already to be considered as a "tributary" state to Goguryeo. In fact, Silla even requested Gwanggaeto for help in driving out the Japanese from the coast, and he did so effeciently.

This does not mean that Silla could not have repelled Gwanggaeto, had he proven to be a worse invader than the Japanese.

As a result of Silla acting as a buffer state between Goguryeo and Japann during the time, the two Goguryeo leaders decided to leave the country alone and focus on conflicts with Chinese kingdoms instead. Had either of the two decided to completely absorb Silla into Goguryeo, they would have done so after one of them conquered Baekje

But Jangsu did not conquer Pekche. He did conquer the capital of Pekche and Han river valley, but could not conquer the rest of the country.

So in other words, if either Gwanggaeto or Jangsu had decided to unite the Korean peninsula, they could have done so with very minimal cost, and therefore would be in a strong position to threaten Japan's national security, because that country would have lost its ties to Baekje.

To the contrary - conquering the rest of Pekche would have taken heavy costs and losses for Koguryo. Which is why, in OTL, Jangsu did not do this.

A significant number of the Japanese clans by 815 had roots in China and the Korean kingdoms. Out of the 1182 clans reported, 174 were from China, 120 were from Baekje, 48 were from Goguryeo, and 17 were from Silla. So in total, about 359 out of 1182 clans in Japan were of foreign descent. In other words, this means that a significant number of people must have immigrated from China and the Korean kingdoms to Japan from 200 to 700 AD. Of course, it's hard to say exactly how much of the entire Japanese population was of foreign descent, but if Goguryeo had decided to and succeeded in uniting the Korean peninsula, then it would be reasonable to assume that the flow of immigration from Korea to Japan would have been cut off significantly in the 400's.

But a lot of people would have fled from Pekche and Silla to Japan in 400s if these countries were conquered by Koguryo, that did not then flee in OTL.

In other words, ATL Japan's population by 800 would have been significantly lower that that of OTL,

Over a few centuries, population adjusts to the available farming fields. Total population of Japan would have been close to what it was in OTL, just the proportion of people of foreign origin would have been smaller.

Also, although close to a third of the noble clans of Japan were foreign, the proportion of general population would have been smaller. Mostly it would have been the nobles who could afford to and had a reason to flee from Pekche and Koguryo when these were conquered. Common people would mostly have stayed at their farms and submitted to Silla conquerors.

True, but I highly doubt that the military would have become a significant component of Korean culture, unlike Japan, unless Korea had decided to make a conscious choice to expand, and therefore fight more battles.

Japan was done expanding by early 9th century. Military became significant politically after 350 years of peace, and even then Japan made no choice to expand for 400 years. They only fought civil wars.

A reason that samurai became important in 12th century Japan was that the court was very weak and had poor control of the provinces. A bit like Silla court was weak in late 9th century, and rebels rose up in provinces.

 

[Kerney]

PoD Saigo Takamori gets permission to invade Korea in 1873 using a Samurai Army, basically in order to keep said samurai from attempting to overthrow the Meiji Government.

Basicallly, you have a half feudal, half modern force invade and it does fairly well, until Korea asks for help from either Russia, France or Britain, which it gets, at a cost, both financial and diplomatically such as trade concessions.

In exchange the need to modernize fast is brought home to the Koreans in a most intimate fashion, which they do, adopting a very Meiji like attitude, with slogans Rich nation, Strong Army.

After Saigo's invasion is beaten back, cooler heads prevail in Tokyo. Also, as time goes by, the danger that Korea will become a colony of Russia or Great Britain recedes, the national security danger to Japan recedes. Meiji leaders perceived Korea as a colony to be a dagger pointed at Japan. A Korea modernized enough to fend off colonization is still too weak to invade Japan. Saigo's war being a disaster, curbed Japan of it's imperial ambitions.

In that situation, Korea and Japan working together against unequal treaties makes sense, as does alliance and close cooperation.

The results are two nations working side by side to maintain their independence and essentially more or less equals.

All the Best,

Kerney