Japan and Germany Develop an Atomic Bomb Timeline Planning Thread

[AbeLincoln1865]

Okay, so while the concept for this timeline might seem a little out there, I do have all the best books on the topic of German and Japanese nuclear research during World War II. Those books are as follows:

• The Virus House by David Irving
• Japan's Secret War by Robert K. Wilcox
• U-234 by Joseph Mark Scalia
• And of course, The Making of the Atomic Bomb by Richard Rhodes

However, I still need a lot of help with this story, so I was hoping my fellow members could have some assistance in this matter. For example, if the Germans discovered Plutonium what would they have called it? There's plenty of other questions I would ask, but I don't want to burden you guys. So please, if you want to help me go ahead, but don't feel pressured.

 

[Don Corleone]

I figure the Germans would hit England. They have troops (or sympathizers) in harm's way in France and fallout would be carried east by the wind. England might be far enough away. Might also hit Poland. That would kill both Polish civilians band Soviet troops.

Japan might hit Vladivostok. They could also hit US-held Pacific islands, although that would be wasting a powerful and hard to produce weapon on a relatively small number of people. They would have a very hard time making it across the Pacific or Siberia to more valuable targets.

 

[AbeLincoln1865]

I figure the Germans would hit England. They have troops (or sympathizers) in harm's way in France and fallout would be carried east by the wind. England might be far enough away. Might also hit Poland. That would kill both Polish civilians band Soviet troops.

Japan might hit Vladivostok. They could also hit US-held Pacific islands, although that would be wasting a powerful and hard to produce weapon on a relatively small number of people. They would have a very hard time making it across the Pacific or Siberia to more valuable targets.

I think the Japanese would want to use Vladivostok as a port and not have to deal with potential fallout. Chita on the other hand, would cut off Vladivostok from resupply and prevent the Soviets from attacking Manchuria.

 

[trurle]

The concerns about fallout were nearly absent in 1944-1945. The considerations for target selection would be purely military utility. It is difficult to judge exact targets, because tactical situation may demand anything. May be not a city at all. In Pacific, Japanese may be tempted to attack Khabarovsk or even Harbin area (in the background of rolling Soviet invasion)- the important staging areas of enemies of Japan within the relatively accessible areas. Deep-penetrating nuclear bombing mission is extremely unlikely (unless the course of war had major changes even before nukes) because both the Japan and Germany had no way to ensure the reliable delivery of expensive and likely unique weapon - i.e. no air superiority.

 

[AbeLincoln1865]

The concerns about fallout were nearly absent in 1944-1945. The considerations for target selection would be purely military utility. It is difficult to judge exact targets, because tactical situation may demand anything. May be not a city at all. In Pacific, Japanese may be tempted to attack Khabarovsk or even Harbin area (in the background of rolling Soviet invasion)- the important staging areas of enemies of Japan within the relatively accessible areas. Deep-penetrating nuclear bombing mission is extremely unlikely (unless the course of war had major changes even before nukes) because both the Japan and Germany had no way to ensure the reliable delivery of expensive and likely unique weapon - i.e. no air superiority.

While I think it would make more sense for the Japanese to attack Chita than Khabarovsk as this would cut the Trans-Siberian Railway to the latter and prevent any attack on Manchuria, I believe Japan would use its first bomb against the Chinese. Specifically, Chongqing in order to kill Chiang Kai-shek and the entire Kuomintang in one blow, potentially winning the war in China.

 

[BlondieBC]

Okay, so while the concept for this timeline might seem a little out there, I do have all the best books on the topic of German and Japanese nuclear research during World War II. Those books are as follows:

• The Virus House by David Irving
• Japan's Secret War by Robert K. Wilcox
• U-234 by Joseph Mark Scalia
• And of course, The Making of the Atomic Bomb by Richard Rhodes

However, I still need a lot of help with this story, so I was hoping my fellow members could have some assistance in this matter. For example, if the Germans discovered Plutonium what would they have called it? There's plenty of other questions I would ask, but I don't want to burden you guys. So please, if you want to help me go ahead, but don't feel pressured.

So what is your POD? What type of thing are you planning on changing.

My best guess on the name would be to use the city or the research institute as the base for the name. We already have Germanium, so maybe something like Munichium.

 

[trurle]

While I think it would make more sense for the Japanese to attack Chita than Khabarovsk as this would cut the Trans-Siberian Railway to the latter and prevent any attack on Manchuria, I believe Japan would use its first bomb against the Chinese. Specifically, Chongqing in order to kill Chiang Kai-shek and the entire Kuomintang in one blow, potentially winning the war in China.

Risky, incredibly risky - since August 1943 Japanese air raid on Chongqing was a rarity due heavy Allied air-interception network. Same for Chita, which was a major hub for Soviet fighters, far from the Japanese air and land bases. On the other hand, Khabarovsk was in artillery range from Japanese fortifications. This allows some recon, navigation, recovery of fallen aircraft and signals intelligence to boost nuclear bombing success probability, even if Soviet fighters opposition would be just as severe. And ruined Khabarovsk bridge is more difficult and time-consuming to bypass than just the segment of railroad in Chita.

 

[AbeLincoln1865]

Risky, incredibly risky - since August 1943 Japanese air raid on Chongqing was a rarity due heavy Allied air-interception network. Same for Chita, which was a major hub for Soviet fighters, far from the Japanese air and land bases. On the other hand, Khabarovsk was in artillery range from Japanese fortifications. This allows some recon, navigation, recovery of fallen aircraft and signals intelligence to boost nuclear bombing success probability, even if Soviet fighters opposition would be just as severe. And ruined Khabarovsk bridge is more difficult and time-consuming to bypass than just the segment of railroad in Chita.

Couldn't they just use a shit-load of escort fighters and decoy bombers?

 

[trurle]

Couldn't they just use a shit-load of escort fighters and decoy bombers?

The problem with Japanese (or German) was what they did not have spare escort fighters or enough trained fighter pilots since 1943. Decoy bombers were easier to provide, but decoy tactics has its limitations, as Battle of Okinawa did show. Using decoy bombers guarantee massive Allied response, high Japanese/German aircrews and airframes loss while still not guaranteeing penetration by the nuclear armed bomber.

 

[AbeLincoln1865]

The problem with Japanese (or German) was what they did not have spare escort fighters or enough trained fighter pilots since 1943. Decoy bombers were easier to provide, but decoy tactics has its limitations, as Battle of Okinawa did show. Using decoy bombers guarantee massive Allied response, high Japanese/German aircrews and airframes loss while still not guaranteeing penetration by the nuclear armed bomber.

Not even for a one-off raid?

 

[trurle]

Not even for a one-off raid?

Getting a local air superiority is not that simple. Massed movement of aircraft and hoarding fuel takes several days, and is a losing game if enemy have more fighters anyway. Germans in particular used well the local concentrations of fighters (on the group of armies level), but the strategy exhausted itself by the Battle of Kursk in July 1943 due attrition. Japanese last serious attempt to mass fighters was in Battle of Guadalcanal in early 1943. In both cases, German/Japan suffered very high losses of massed fighters on ground - and later mostly resorted to dispersion of fighters to reduce the losses.

Overall, i do not say local air superiority by Japan/Germany is impossible in 1944/45. Just the Allies who already have a global air superiority has a superior recon and mobility making any large raid attempt as much risking full annihilation as the single German/Japanese bomber.

 

[AbeLincoln1865]

Getting a local air superiority is not that simple. Massed movement of aircraft and hoarding fuel takes several days, and is a losing game if enemy have more fighters anyway. Germans in particular used well the local concentrations of fighters (on the group of armies level), but the strategy exhausted itself by the Battle of Kursk in July 1943 due attrition. Japanese last serious attempt to mass fighters was in Battle of Guadalcanal in early 1943. In both cases, German/Japan suffered very high losses of massed fighters on ground - and later mostly resorted to dispersion of fighters to reduce the losses.

Overall, i do not say local air superiority by Japan/Germany is impossible in 1944/45. Just the Allies who already have a global air superiority has a superior recon and mobility making any large raid attempt as much risking full annihilation as the single German/Japanese bomber.

Fair enough.

 

[naraic]

The option of course for delivery might be super high bomber. Mind you getting ahead of the allies in that area could be as difficult as developing a bomb.

 

[nbcman]

Even if Japan or Germany could construct an a-bomb, they also had to simultaneously develop a bomber with a larger load capacity than they had. Note that the US's B-29 program costs exceeded the cost of the Manhattan Project at over 3 Billion dollars. Where are the Germans and Japanese going to collectively come up with over 5 Billion dollars to develop the two programs while affording the other items that they used IOTL?

The only model that was on the drawing board for Japan was the G10N which started development in 1943 and was cancelled in 1944 IOTL. Germany wasn't much further along in heavy bomber development but did produce a few prototype Amerika Bombers which could have had a large enough load capacity to carry an early a-bomb.

EDIT: Germany supposedly spent about 3 Billion dollars equivalent to develop their V-weapons / rockets so that is some development and production money which can go towards the 5 Billion dollar target.

 

[AbeLincoln1865]

Even if Japan or Germany could construct an a-bomb, they also had to simultaneously develop a bomber with a larger load capacity than they had. Note that the US's B-29 program costs exceeded the cost of the Manhattan Project at over 3 Billion dollars. Where are the Germans and Japanese going to collectively come up with over 5 Billion dollars to develop the two programs while affording the other items that they used IOTL?

The only model that was on the drawing board for Japan was the G10N which started development in 1943 and was cancelled in 1944 IOTL. Germany wasn't much further along in heavy bomber development but did produce a few prototype Amerika Bombers which could have had a large enough load capacity to carry an early a-bomb.

EDIT: Germany supposedly spent about 3 Billion dollars equivalent to develop their V-weapons / rockets so that is some development and production money which can go towards the 5 Billion dollar target.

Perhaps a modified Heinkel He 177 and G8N Renzan for the Germans and Japanese, respectively?

 

[galileo-034]

I wonder what's your POD.

The main problem with a German bomb, and especially more with a Japanese one, is both the knowledge and the means.

I don't know Japan at this time for a much extended scientific base, and Nazi Germany had the bad habit of alienating much of able physicists who settled in West and eventually went to work in the Manhattan project.
I don't see Japan with the industrial base nor the money or even the resources (ie plenty of uranium ore available) to fund such a project. And even with Britain fighting alone and no Pacific War (which I think pretty unlikely), it's still very unlikely to see even Germany completing the bomb earlier, when they had only Czechoslovak mines at their disposal and that we count their project as discovered at the end of the war by advancing Allied troops was light years behind Manhattan project.
There is also the ideological argument I heard of that Hitler did never really consider the bomb a priority since he thought he didn't need it to win, to the point the development as with rockets program only took off the ground until fortunes in Russia took the wrong turn for Germany. As of Japan, I mind that being even more rigid, in their own way, than Germans, so I wonder what would be their justification.

 

[James Ricker]

Japan would nuke Guam and Saipan to take out the B-29 bases as a matter of national survival.
Hitler would use the bomb on some major rail hub in Eastern Europe to slow down the encroaching"red hoard".

 

[AbeLincoln1865]

Japan would nuke Guam and Saipan to take out the B-29 bases as a matter of national survival.
Hitler would use the bomb on some major rail hub in Eastern Europe to slow down the encroaching"red hoard".

I was thinking Japan would get their A-bomb before the Allies invaded the Marianas, say in the April of 1944.

 

[Alex1guy]

I was thinking Japan would get their A-bomb before the Allies invaded the Marianas, say in the April of 1944.

Problem was it's almost contradictory to have a Japan that's A) Engaged with the US in a manner similar to OTL whilst B) Having the economy to support the research/resources needed for an A-bomb program with bombers. AFAIK Japan's very modest A-Bomb program was actually on the right path in terms of research conclusions and hypotheticals, but the funding simply wasn't there. Japan also had the problem of the Navy and Army having independent programs in operation (solving the rivalry between these branches is a whole other thing...) so like Nazi Germany you have a competition for resources. They'd probably have to sit the war out in order to get a bomb.

 

[AbeLincoln1865]

Problem was it's almost contradictory to have a Japan that's A) Engaged with the US in a manner similar to OTL whilst B) Having the economy to support the research/resources needed for an A-bomb program with bombers. AFAIK Japan's very modest A-Bomb program was actually on the right path in terms of research conclusions and hypotheticals, but the funding simply wasn't there. Japan also had the problem of the Navy and Army having independent programs in operation (solving the rivalry between these branches is a whole other thing...) so like Nazi Germany you have a competition for resources. They'd probably have to sit the war out in order to get a bomb.

Obviously, this timeline will basically have everything atomic-research related go right for the Axis. That's not too plausible, but I don't see any other way for them to get an A-bomb while still going to war.