One interesting idea I see is Jan skits winning in 1948. At this time, his views of blacks had begun to liberalize more. I would think South Africa would become more like Rhodesia, as in less protective of Afrikaner culture, and more focused on “western civilization” as a whole. It will also be more pro British I think. A lot of people think Afrikaner culture will decline. I disagree, it is very resilient, and survives to this day. I think that while smuts would be liberal for the time he would definitely not tolerate the ANC, and would likely have a bone to pick with communists. I think attempts would be done to develop a loyal black middle class, and impose European style “conservative” education on them. This South Africa would be more friendly with us and western countries than otl, and have a more vigorous economy. I think more migration might occur. What happens much later is debatable. Thoughts?
Jan smuts 1948: South Africa changes?
- Thread starter Dan Yampton
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If memory serves a small part of what helped push the National Party over the top in 1948 was dropping breaking with the British Commonwealth from their platform. Keep that in and have a few missteps made by National Party candidates in closer races and it is possible the United Party can eek out a win in 1948.
The United Party won far more votes than the NP in '48 but the FPTP system, and the policy of allowing rural constituencies to have fewer voters than urban ones, saw the NP win. I don't think it would be that hard to get a UP win in 1948.
Hmm. What would the butterflies be of the event? I see South Africa ending up sort of like Rhodesia.
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There were already restrictive laws in place, so South Africa won't be a racial utopia but it won't have Apartheid to be a lightning rod of criticism like IOTL. More importantly, Smuts idea of subsidizing White immigration from Europe in general instead of the more restrictive policy historically would allow for growth in that demographic. Namibia was also on track to get legally absorbed into South Africa until the NP and Apartheid derailed that. Another thing that comes to mind is that Coloureds will retain voting rights in the Cape, so you could see an earlier arising of a White-Coloured alliance.
It has been mentioned that Smuts was planning to recruit displaced persons from Europe to come to South Africa to help grow a larger white minority. That plan plus an encouraging of migration from Great Britain would have increased the United Party base and brought more skilled workers. Assuming that there is a plan of expanding black schools would allow educated blacks to be given the vote.
Assuming that South Africa goes through a phase of integration similar to the American South, you would have seen enough progress to avoid the disinvestment campaigns of the 1980's. Assuming that South Africa supports coalitions governments in Angola, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and Malawi, you hopefully would avoid some of the bad leadership of the last 50 years. Instead the money wasted on wars and corruption would be reinvested in these countries. This would then lead to a stable economic group with growing economies.
Assuming that South Africa goes through a phase of integration similar to the American South, you would have seen enough progress to avoid the disinvestment campaigns of the 1980's. Assuming that South Africa supports coalitions governments in Angola, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and Malawi, you hopefully would avoid some of the bad leadership of the last 50 years. Instead the money wasted on wars and corruption would be reinvested in these countries. This would then lead to a stable economic group with growing economies.
Yes it wont be a racial utopia, I agree. I also feel like in the end though, tensions aren't as bad, because of a "more" fair regime.
Deleted member 109224
You'd see more British immigration and European immigration, as well as Coloureds retaining their voting rights in the cape. Educated blacks likely would get the vote soon, sort of like Rhodesia, and Asians would likely get the vote. By the late 1980s/early 1990s there'd likely be a move towards majority rule.
Perhaps. However I doubt it would occur the way OTL. Rather, it would gradually reform to majority rule.
Jan Smuts while increasing black rights, he would make sure Africa is anti communist at core. So he will not be too fond with the ANC. He might be in the "liberal party" but keep in mind this is all relative.
Indeed, but I wonder if Smuts would have taken the risk to send weapons despite the embargo, he along with Masaryk were the fiercest supporters of Israel at the time.
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Might have. The butterflies would lead to more joint defense contracts than otl.
How much would this change the demographics of SA? Are we going to see a twenty percent white population? What will happen to Rhodesia and Southwest Africa? Or the communists in Zambia, Mozambique and Angola.
Deleted member 109224
Well, a more economically vibrant South Africa (which is what you'd have with less oppression of blacks, more immigration, and fewer sanctions) would be more able to intervene in the frontier states.
I'm not sure what would happen to Southwest Africa. It was the Post-Apartheid government that left the place. Maybe it becomes the fifth province
South Africa's White population at its peak was, what, 12% of the population? OTL some 6 million people emigrated to Australia post-War (despite the White Australia policy limiting who could come) so I could see a comparable number going to South Africa given how the plan was to be open to Baltic, Eastern, and Southern European immigration. 17-20% is a reasonable number to expect.
Many Retornados would likely go to South Africa TTL. The Portuguese Colonial War can't go on forever. Maybe some of the proposed OTL partitions of Portuguese Africa (Portugal keeping Southern Mozambique and large chunks of Angola but establishing independent states in other portions) would go through, thus maintaining Portuguese Pluricontinentalism.
I can see South Africa supporting the internal settlement in Rhodesia.
I'm not sure what would happen to Southwest Africa. It was the Post-Apartheid government that left the place. Maybe it becomes the fifth province
South Africa's White population at its peak was, what, 12% of the population? OTL some 6 million people emigrated to Australia post-War (despite the White Australia policy limiting who could come) so I could see a comparable number going to South Africa given how the plan was to be open to Baltic, Eastern, and Southern European immigration. 17-20% is a reasonable number to expect.
Many Retornados would likely go to South Africa TTL. The Portuguese Colonial War can't go on forever. Maybe some of the proposed OTL partitions of Portuguese Africa (Portugal keeping Southern Mozambique and large chunks of Angola but establishing independent states in other portions) would go through, thus maintaining Portuguese Pluricontinentalism.
I can see South Africa supporting the internal settlement in Rhodesia.
Indeed. United Party policy wanted to copy Botha 20 years earlier. Give parliamentary status to coloureds. Give Africans and Indians white representation in parliament and their own on the provincial and local level, make the schools equal but separate and abolish the wage scale and the pass laws.
The up wanted to promote the responsible African, leader and try to widen the anc Indian split.
In my opinion, they would have a position similar to Ian Smith, as while having black participation in politics, very against the concept of majority rule.