After reading your sources I can't help but agree with your perspective on an Italian entry in 1914. However have you researched into what Germany/Austria would have to do to compel the Italians to enter on their side? Italy wanted Trentino because of Austria's adventures against Serbia, could this have been a realistic concession in the minds of the Austrian leadership in 1914? What is the most realistic way to bring the Italians into the CP camp in 1914 with the least amount of alterations?
The most natural course for Italy was neutrality. Afaik, it was the only country where the parliament voted for staying out of the war to then get outmaneuvered by the government barely a month later. For such a change only a minor pod is necessary, but an early entry is harder.
Personally, I don't think the 'price' is the correct angle to go for. Austria-Hungary was prepared for their altercation with Serbia, because they wanted to preserve their territorial integrity and saw the terrorist actions originating from Serbia as a valid threat to it. It's hard to see them agreeing to give territory away when their initial goal is keeping it all. It took the major losses of 1914/1915 for them to become open to the idea. The price angle will always be bad for the Central Powers. Therefore, I would argue that the national pride angle should be pursued. This personal or human factor is far too often ignored. Be it a closer cooperation between the Triple Alliance, earlier involvement of Italy in the crisis or an overhasty declaration from Russia that compells Italy to consider itself bound by the Triple Alliance is the only way to have them join early on. Italy needs to consider the casis foederis to be valid, that's the way.
How this way can be achieved? There are many possibilities. I think an easy one would be to have Umberto I. survive the assasination in 1900 and not be succeeded by his son. Umberto was far more positively inclinded towards the Triple Alliance than his son.
A more complex way that may be a tad more convincing is to have the pope allow FZJ to visit him during a state visit to Rome. This can happe through the current pope dying, being assassinated or a change of mind. This was the major hurdle for state visits of the respective monarchs between A-H and Italy. Victor Emmanuel was extremely irked that FZJ never reciprocated the ones his father made to help establish the initial Triple Alliance. The knowledge of the attack on Franz Ferdinand, that Italy got from France and Pasic would reach the king and through the better relations with FZJ they actually bond over losing family members to such acts. Driven partly by guilt, personal animosity and a sense of solidarity, VE promises his support for any act of Austrian-Hungarian against Serbia. A similar course of events then pushes Italy towards aligning themselves with their allies and joining them.
A bidding war is something the Central Powers will always lose. At most they can offer crumps compared to the whole bread and butter the entente can put on the table. In OTL, they did offer the Trentino for neutrality and they didn't even get that.
Facinating. I had always assumed that Germany would want to establish a Polish rump state in any such scenario to allieveate their wide border with the Russians. Perhaps a demilitarisation of Russian Poland would be a more realistic/ desirable alternative? I usually roll my eyes when people naturally assume that the Germans ever seriously aimed for a brest-litvosk style peace until the unqiue variables of the collapsing Russian state in 1917, but I suppose I just assumed Poland was always on the cards even in a 1914/1915 peace deal.
Afaik, the military experts wanted some minor border alterations to make it more defensible. Ironically, I don't quite remember Imperial Germany ever arguing or going for a demilitarization of any region. Be it overconfidence or a feeling of if you're the best, you don't fear the rest.
The underlying fear in regard to the creation of any independing Polish state was that it would be the creation of a Polish Piedmont. A new herd of agitation and problems that would constantly try to stir up trouble in the former territories of the Kingdom of Poland and the Grand Duchy of Lithuania. Serbia saw itself as the Piedmont of the Southern Slavs, Italy was the initial product that A-H had to suffer from and no one wanted to have the same thing happening from another direction. You can see the lack of trust in OTL. Germany had so many prerogatives and control over the Poland they created that it could've hardly be called an independent state.
Would you mind to provide a source for this? I'm very interested about the topic
He means the so-called Prinetti-Barrère Accord, which was an exchange of notes. It should be mentioned in any book about Italian Foreign policy before WW1 or about the Triple Alliance(Fellner, Dreibund, S. 57-60, Albertini, Origins 1, S. 127-132, Lowe-Marzari, Italian Foreign Policy, S. 82, Behnen, Rüstung, S. 19-100).
Essentially, opinions differ on it.
That is the text of the note they exchanged and a slight amendment done by request.
“Should France be the object of a direct or Indirect aggression on the part of one or more Powers, Italy would maintain a strict neutrality. It would be the same were France, as the result of a direct provocation, to find herself compelled, for the defense of her honor or of her security, to take the initiative of a declaration of war.
In this eventuallty, the Government of the Republic must previously communicate Its intention to the Royal Government, enabling the latter to determine that It ts Indeed a case of direct provocation.”
Further noted by the Italian Foreign Minister regarding the word direct in direct aggression:
“I hasten to confirm for you In the matter what I have had the occasion to express to you verbally.
The word, direct, has this meaning and intent, in understanding that an action could be considered eventually as constituting provocation if it concerned the direct relations between the provoking Power and the Power provoked.”
Here, you find the text of the Triple alliance.