Italy enters WW2 before fall of France?

[torten]

OTL, Mussolini entered the war once France was pretty much beaten, expecting a short war, a few thousand dead, and as a consequence, a seat at the peace conference.

However, what would it take during the build up to war to have Italy either

- Declare war on the allies at the outbreak of war with Poland? (I would argue personally that this is very unlikely with a POD after 1937)

-Declare war on the Allies at, or within a few days of the beginning of the Battle of France? (This is the one I am really interested in. What kind of effect would it have on the fall of France?)

-Declare war after Dunkirk, a few weeks earlier than OTL?

 

[althistoryforum5724]

If the Allies acquiesce to Italian occupation of Abyssinia that may keep Italy sweet, if they don't then Italy will most likely move closer to Germany - of course if the allies acquiesce to Italian occupation of abyssinia and Italy becomes an ally then Germany may not be able to carry out Anschluss with Austria. Which changes everything.

If things go as in OTL but with Italy joining the Allies and declaring war in 1939 then i cant see Italy has any ability to make headway into Austria, Italy most likely seeks an armistice when France falls.
Or maybe changes sides - if not Britain has no Mediterranean theatre to consume resources leading to a stronger showing in the Far East ?.

Italy never invades Greece ? Yugoslavia never joins the Axis ? so German forces are not diverted to the Balkans with possible consequences for Barborossa - Army Group South is at full strength on June 22nd.
Possibly meaning Kleist takes Kiev earlier so that Pz Gp1 isn't forced to cross the Dnieper as far south as in OTL - with consequences - Pz Gp 1 does not end up in a situation where it can form the Southern pincer of the Kiev encirclement, rather Pz Gp 1 is in position where it can cover Guderians southern flank. Guderian and Hoths drive on Moscow may not be delayed until October.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

If the Allies acquiesce to Italian occupation of Abyssinia that may keep Italy sweet, if they don't then Italy will most likely move closer to Germany - of course if the allies acquiesce to Italian occupation of abyssinia and Italy becomes an ally then Germany may not be able to carry out Anschluss with Austria. Which changes everything.

I think the OP is asking Italy declared war on the WAllies earlier, but misphrased it.

Possibly meaning Kleist takes Kiev earlier so that Pz Gp1 isn't forced to cross the Dnieper as far south as in OTL - with consequences - Pz Gp 1 does not end up in a situation where it can form the Southern pincer of the Kiev encirclement, rather Pz Gp 1 is in position where it can cover Guderians southern flank. Guderian and Hoths drive on Moscow may not be delayed until October.

I don't see it. Numbers and disposition determined the survival of the Southwestern Front. The Germans put three of their four panzer groups north of the Pripyet marsh, while the Soviets put the bulk of their forces south of it. The weakest German Army Group advancing against the strongest Soviet Fronts was always going to mean a slower advance in the south than in the north. 11th Army being available earlier doesn't appreciably change. They consisted entirely of infantry divisions and was deployed to drive eastward towards Odessa, not north/northwestward to hook up with Pz Gp 1. Plus, the Germans just don't have the logistics for a successful early Typhoon.

 

[Oldbill]

I believe the MN had some pretty aggressive plans for the RM and Italy in the event of a war. We could expect the French to bombard Italian coastal areas, attack shipping, mine harbors and possibly seek battle. I've not looked up the respective OOB's for the time (still waking up....) but do recall that even with the short time period in OTL between Italy's DOW and the Armistice, the MN had a couple engagements. If this is as indicative as I believe, it means we will see some naval actions.

 

[althistoryforum5724]

Sorry - my mistake.
Interesting idea.

If Italy enter the war earlier on the Axis side their Navy might become a handy target for the French. Britains position in the Med might be better after the fall of France than in OTL.
The Italians are going to do badly anyway.

But Libya might fall before France does that affects Britains position in the Med, do the Axis try to retake Libya - requiring a Naval landing, or without a North African theatre Britain may have a much stronger showing in the Far East.

Without a land theatre in the Med might the British look at landing in Sicily whilst Barborossa is underway and or crete might be held and the Axis invasion repulsed.

Without a land theatre in the Med might the British look at siezing Narvick again.

I wonder if French success against the Italians makes Vichy less likely, imagine a French land or naval Commander having great success against the Italians becoming a De Gaulle figure with clout, maybe taking over as CinC or vowing to fight on from North Africa.

Another prospect is that if the Italians suffer early land and Naval disasters Mussolini might get dumped before France surrenders.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

Declare war on the Allies at, or within a few days of the beginning of the Battle of France? (This is the one I am really interested in. What kind of effect would it have on the fall of France?)

If it was planned in advance in co-operation with the Germans, then the Italians might be better prepared and take enough of Nice and Savoy to keep them after the Armistice or swap them for Tunisia. As it was planned in advance their merchant shipping would be recalled before war was declared, which would be useful if Italy still gets stuck in a long war. If they gave themselves time to prepare then they could have built up their forces in Libya and East Africa, e.g. a stronger force in Cyrenaica capable of attacking Egypt when the British forces there were even weaker than September 1940.