Italy, a Destiny Fulfilled: Future Discussion Thread

[Franciscus Caesar]

Italy, a Destiny Fulfilled (or IDF) has apparently become too vastly complicated to cater to the likings of everyone. In order to keep the integrity of the TL and still allow the creative juices of many prize AH members to flow, this thread's purpose is for brainstorming and discussions of future events, and what have you on IDF. Posts and discussion (along with props, critiques, suggestions, ideas) on the real Italy, a Destiny Fulfilled thread will have to do with conversation on the previously posted part while this thread will be solely for future discussions, etc.

Heres a link to the original thread:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=135164

 

[Eurofed]

Ok, I start the new future speculation sandbox thread by going to state that in the light of the huge successes both Bismarck and Di Castagna have reaped ITTL, propelling them into the status of revered Fatherland Fathers, and the moderate-liberal future evolution of Italy and Germany, they are going to stay in office as much as they want to, secure from parliamentary instability and royal meddling, until they feel too old and tired to continue. Otto always looked to me as willing to keep the helm until near death, if Willy had not dismissed him, and Di Castagna alike seems like a sturdy guy that would feel he's got job to do to make Italy great until death creeps near. DC is seven years younger than Otto, so I would expect Bismarck to stay into office till the late 1890s, and Di Castagna up to that point as well and possible the early 1900s.

Which means they may easily be the ones leading their countries in the Great War and laying down the foundations of the peace settlement, very cool.

 

[Franciscus Caesar]

Ok, I start the new future speculation sandbox thread by going to state that in the light of the huge successes both Bismarck and Di Castagna have reaped ITTL, propelling them into the status of revered Fatherland Fathers, and the moderate-liberal future evolution of Italy and Germany, they are going to stay in office as much as they want to, secure from parliamentary instability and royal meddling, until they feel too old and tired to continue. Otto always looked to me as willing to keep the helm until near death, if Willy had not dismissed him, and Di Castagna alike seems like a sturdy guy that would feel he's got job to do to make Italy great until death creeps near. DC is seven years younger than Otto, so I would expect Bismarck to stay into office till the late 1890s, and Di Castagna up to that point as well and possible the early 1900s.

Which means they may easily be the ones leading their countries in the Great War and laying down the foundations of the peace settlement, very cool.

Exactly! This is the plan! Keep these two leaders in power long enough without the stupidities of royals getting in their way. The next decade or 2 will surely belong to Francesco di Castagna and Otto Von Bismarck! I'm very excited to release the next few parts, I finally have a good internal struggle ready!!

 

[Keenir]

Exactly! This is the plan! Keep these two leaders in power long enough without the stupidities of royals getting in their way. The next decade or 2 will surely belong to Francesco di Castagna and Otto Von Bismarck! I'm very excited to release the next few parts, I finally have a good internal struggle ready!!

the question is, what stupidities can Von Bismarck and Di Castagna get into?

 

[MNP]

the question is, what stupidities can Von Bismarck and Di Castagna get into?

No major ones as it's an Italo-wank that tries to stay in the ballpark of realism. (I'm not saying that's a bad thing! Italy dysfunction needs to be balance out after all...)

 

[LordKalvan]

Exactly! This is the plan! Keep these two leaders in power long enough without the stupidities of royals getting in their way. The next decade or 2 will surely belong to Francesco di Castagna and Otto Von Bismarck! I'm very excited to release the next few parts, I finally have a good internal struggle ready!!

Di Castagna has to weather a kind of crisis when Vittorio Emanuele dies and Umberto becomes king in 1878. A new broom and all that. There is still almost a decade during which FdC can strengthen his government and his influence, so everything is in a flux.

Otoh, is it such a bad thing if both OvB and FdC get the sack early? They were certainly great, and needful for the raise of the new powers and a re-drawing of the map of Europe. However, I've always had some mistrust for a guy who sits in the top chair for too long a time. Even good prime ministers should get the sack before they go past expiry date

 

[Eurofed]

Otoh, is it such a bad thing if both OvB and FdC get the sack early? They were certainly great, and needful for the raise of the new powers and a re-drawing of the map of Europe. However, I've always had some mistrust for a guy who sits in the top chair for too long a time. Even good prime ministers should get the sack before they go past expiry date

Ahh, but this is the crux of the issue, at least as much as I'm concerned. IOTL, the expiry date for OvB really had not really come when he was sacked, given the completely disastrous results of the foreign policy choices that were made after him, whereas he kept warning against them on his deathbed. As it concerns Italy, the longer a Cavour-like figure like FdC could have been kept in charge, the better. In both cases, the nation lacked a substitute PM that was remotely as talented and foresignted as them.

Now, we may speculate that the political changes of TTL may cause a decent potential PM substitute to emerge in both nations. Nonetheless, since OvB and FdC were both founding fathers figures, I think it is beneficial to the nation if they are left in charge long enough to root any long-term policy into place that would be beneficial for their nations. IMO this would not just include the TTL complete unifications, but also socio-economic domestic nation-building, completing the Italo-German partnership, overseeing the nation's switch to OC allegiance, building the alliance with Britain, etc. IMO doing all of this would give them enough useful stuff to keep them in charge at least as long as OvB did IOTL, give or take an handful years.

Personally, I'm not that convinced that sacking talented leaders for change's sake is all that beneficial to democracies, in may cases, the benefits you may gain from getting new ideas come with the baggage of a popular moron having all the wrong ideas. See GWB taking over after Clinton, or if we speak about founding father figures, I'm wholly persuaded that Washington refusing a third term was a tragedy for young America, he would have stoppted the Alien & Sedition Acts, which would have avoided or delayed the disastrous Jefferson Presidency, and kept the Federalists in charge longer, who apparently had all the right ideas to foster the socio-economic development of the USA and its security, which would have led to a much better American performance in the War of 1812, and much improved the economic development of the nation.

 

[DuQuense]

Question about what counts as a Wank.

?Would a Italy that holds on to Tunisia till the 1960's and Dalmatia till now, count as wanked?

France held Algeria for 120 years and still lost it in the Decolonization. ?Can Italy hold the Smaller Tunisia post Decolonization?

?How About Corsica? ?Is post 1860's to late for major realignment of National Borders?
?If Italy takes Corsica in the 1860's, do the Corsican Liberation people win in the 1960's?

Berlin Conference, A stronger Italy may get more of Africa than OTL's - just Somolia - It may also get some of the South Pacific.
[?Wonder what a Italian Formosa would be like?]

 

[Eurofed]

Question about what counts as a Wank.

The concept holds a relavant dose of ambiguity. To some, it means any TL where the authors purposefully pick PoD(s) and butterflies in order to improve the fortunes of a country, ideology, or political movement in comparison to OTL; to others, the ones where the authors to so at the expense of plausibility. IMO IDF matches the first meaning, but reamins whilly within plausibility.

?Would a Italy that holds on to Tunisia till the 1960's and Dalmatia till now, count as wanked?

As well as Nice, Savoy, Riviera, Corsica, and Istria. It depends. But this is not probably the most radical changes in Italian fortunes that we can expect from this TL. Rather, we can look towards an Italy that anticipates its economic boom and full social modernization by three generations, becomes one of the economic and military big players among the European great powers and in the far future one of the three leaders for the EU superpower.

Can Italy hold the Smaller Tunisia post Decolonization?

If European settlers ever become the majority of the population, this is going to happen. This is quite possible for Tunisia and very very likely for Libya.

?If Italy takes Corsica in the 1860's, do the Corsican Liberation people win in the 1960's?

Very unlikely. Historically, Italy has been quite good at dampening separatism within its borders by showering minorities with large autnomies and economic benefits. I expect the apptern would repeat with Corsica and Dalmatia too.

Berlin Conference, A stronger Italy may get more of Africa than OTL's - just Somolia - It may also get some of the South Pacific.
[?Wonder what a Italian Formosa would be like?]

IF we get a Berlin Conference, its outcome may be rather different from OTL, given that we are going to see a stronger Italy and Germany backed by Britain, squared against a France-Spain backed by Russia. As it concerns the outcome of a possible TTL conference on the scramble to Africa, I would expect that Britain, Germany, and Italy would support each other about their chosen colonization turfs: Italy for the northeastern coast, Germany, for the central-southern western coast, Britain about the Cape-Cairo Axis. At the very least, a stronger Italy backed by Germnay and Britain would surely conquer Ethiopia in the 1880s-1890s.

 

[MNP]

To me it's where a country does not suffer any reverses or significant setbacks and never has any real threat against it. Kind of like the US.

 

[Eurofed]

To me it's where a country does not suffer any reverses or significant setbacks and never has any real threat against it. Kind of like the US.

As your own USA example indicates, a country that never suffers serious reverses or setbacks is perfectly plausible, given the right conditions. As for the USA never having faced real threats, I'd say this is questionable. They certainly could have lost the ARW, suffered serious losses in the War of 1812, Anglo-French intervention could have caused the successful secession of the CSA, they faced the spectre of nuclear holocaust during the late Cold War.

 

[MNP]

As your own USA example indicates, a country that never suffers serious reverses or setbacks is perfectly plausible, given the right conditions. As for the USA never having faced real threats, I'd say this is questionable. They certainly could have lost the ARW, suffered serious losses in the War of 1812, Anglo-French intervention could have caused the successful secession of the CSA, they faced the spectre of nuclear holocaust during the late Cold War.

Yes, I should say we have never faced a real threat since the ACW. Nuclear war was too abstract to really count, certainly people were afraid but instant annihilation is an entirely different order than your country being conquered by someone else or having pieces forcibly removed and given to others.

Also I never said it wasn't plausible just that it constitutes a wank.

 

[Supermanboy]

Di Castagna has to weather a kind of crisis when Vittorio Emanuele dies and Umberto becomes king in 1878. A new broom and all that. There is still almost a decade during which FdC can strengthen his government and his influence, so everything is in a flux.

Otoh, is it such a bad thing if both OvB and FdC get the sack early? They were certainly great, and needful for the raise of the new powers and a re-drawing of the map of Europe. However, I've always had some mistrust for a guy who sits in the top chair for too long a time. Even good prime ministers should get the sack before they go past expiry date

I disagree. ITTL di Castagna IS Italy. The longer he is around, the longer these ideas of greatness can be realized. Unless of course the Caesar either makes new characters (which is great, adds a real AH feel to things) or, gives an OTL PM/Politician di Castagna like abilities. I get what ur saying about the top of the chair for too long thing tho.

 

[Franciscus Caesar]

It appears with the absence of LK, future discussions stop

I have a future question. In an Italy where there is non of the right traits to make fascism, what kind of new group can emerge? Under what conditions? I'm trying to think of a national identity under a political party, not just rogues/independents like di Castagna and Barletto. Turning the party they would both belong to (as they have the same political agenda) into a reality.

So!?

 

[Eurofed]

A general premise: Italy and Germany are going to have a very similar evolution of their political systems, and those are going to be pretty much in flux for the next two decades or so. However, we may expect them to evolve towards a rather stable two-three party system in the medium term.

Industrialization, the gradual spread of economic affluence among the middle and lower middle classes and end of abject poverty among the worker classes, the entrenchment of the Old Catholics hegemony on the Catholic masses, and their evolution towards a liberal-progressive worldview, are going to favor the emergence of a political system not unlike the Anglo-Saxon one. Say a economically conservative-nationalist center of right big tent party or coalition of parties, a economically liberal-progressist center of left big tent party of coalition of parties, and perhaps a centrist liberal-moderate medium party or coalition of parties.

Progressist Protestants (in Germany) and Old Catholics, left-wing liberals, moderate republicans and social reformers are going to occupy the place in the political system that was occupied by marxist socialists (which shall be marginalized in a far left fringe), and build a movement kinda like British Labor or American Progressists. Conservative Protestants and OC, right-wing liberals and nationalists, and most of the conservative old elites are going to join and form a movement kinda like Britsh Tories or American Republicans (without the fundamentalism, of course). Such movements could either become "big tent" parties, or coalition of parties. A centrist moderate liberal-conservative party or coalition may or may not form among the two big ones. The marxist-socialist far left and the reactionary far right are going to take shape as well, but they shall mostly remain marginalized at the fringes of the political system.

Although this political system is only going to take shape during and after the stay in office of the di Castagna-Barletto-Bismarck generation, they could be supported by and ideally belong to this aborning "Tory" movement: Barletto would belong in its far-right fringe, Bismarck (despite its own strong conservative leanings, out of his political pragmatism) in the center or right mainstream, di Castagna as well or leaning towards its progressist fringe.

 

[DuQuense]

In an Italy where there is non of the right traits to make fascism, what kind of new group can emerge?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futurism

 

[Franciscus Caesar]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futurism

Thanks, I can use that

 

[Franciscus Caesar]

A return to IDF is quite possible. I'm sorry for my sudden hiatus but family and work led me to the decision that IDF would resume in the summer. I'm eager to continue the TL and I hope everyone is as enthusiastic as I am to see what happens to the Italy that we have created

With that, the discussion begins. In regards to the peace treaty with France, could Italy get Toulon, which is currently occupied by its armies?

 

[Eurofed]

With that, the discussion begins. In regards to the peace treaty with France, could Italy get Toulon, which is currently occupied by its armies?

I think that the reasonable high-end of what Italy may ask in the peace treaty is to place the new border from the southern tip of Savoy down a mostly straight line to roughly halfway between Marseilles and Toulon, so the answer is yes. Of course, if Italy is getting so much, Germany ought to get all of Alsace and Lorraine, including Verdun, and place the new border on the Maas.

 

[The Kiat]

I was wondering what became of your timeline. It just ended abruptly.