Israel pre-empts in 1973

[Blochead]

Israeli intelligence dismissed a lot of the buildup to Yom Kippur as 'exercises', and as a result, was hit first in a surprise attack.

But suppose, as a result of increased terrorism or luck, Israeli intelligence decides to interpret the troop movements for what they are, and launches a pre-emptive attack on the Arab nations...

How will this affect the war outcome? Geopolitics in the Mideast and the world? Would the oil crisis have been worse?

 

[David bar Elias]

If the Israelis win in a Six Day War-like situation, then the Americans won't have to airlift aid to them, fortalling something like OTL's energy crisis.

But I wouldn't be surprised if the Arabs still use their defeat as an excuse to boycott every nation that recognizes and does business with the Jewish state.....

 

[Viriato]

The war was more or less an excuse for the embargo. The OPEC countries had been looking for ways to cut oil supplies since fall of the value of the dollar in 1971. Many OPEC leaders complained of how inflation was having an effect on everything and the price of oil remained incredibly low. I'm sure they still would have found a pretext of some sort to limit the supply of cheap oil to the world and bring up prices.

 

[Blochead]

Well, I doubt the Israelis would have won nearly as quickly...

Would Israeli aggression have increased Soviet aid to the Arabs?

 

[CalBear]

Israeli Intellegence had some inkiling that something was up. Golda Meir, forbade the military to strike without solid evidence, not wanting Israel to appear to be an aggressor.

In a way, since Israel survived and rallied to win, the 1973 War helped the Israeli State. Jordan & Egypt both finally saw the handwriting on the wall and made peace. The Israeli Army and Air Force learned some difficult, but important lessons. Balance of forces were changed, the amount of Artillery was greatly increased, and the tactics of the IDF, especially in relationship to anti-tank and and anti-air missiles, were brought into the modern era.

The 1973 war was also the last real attempt by the Arab STATES to defeat Israel. Unlike 1967, the Arab states couldn't pretend that they had lost because Israel had managed to catch them with their pants down. They had surprised Israel, made the first move, and still got their asses handed to them. In a war that started with the U.S. making a frenzied resupply effort to Israel, the ending was the U.S. more or less forceing Israel to let the Tenth Army survive. The Arab states had to accept that Israel was not going to be swept into the sea by force of arms.

Ever since it has been political and low intensity warfare. 1973 was a real education for all involved.

 

[MarkWhittington]

Israeli intelligence dismissed a lot of the buildup to Yom Kippur as 'exercises', and as a result, was hit first in a surprise attack.

But suppose, as a result of increased terrorism or luck, Israeli intelligence decides to interpret the troop movements for what they are, and launches a pre-emptive attack on the Arab nations...

How will this affect the war outcome? Geopolitics in the Mideast and the world? Would the oil crisis have been worse?

My guess is that the Israelis would not so much attacked first as they would have massively reinforced their defenses in the Sinia and the Golan. If the Egyptians had crossed the canal expecting to face one Israeli division and ran into three and if the Syrians had moved on the Golan expecting to face two brigades and ran into two divisions, it would have been bad news for both. Israel would have then gone on the offensive against a shattered foe on the second or third day.

 

[Blochead]

I agree CalBear...

So, here's my train of thought:

Soviets increase aid to Arabs & pressure on them... Would the Israelis escalate?

OPEC still carries out their embargo, but does the US respond in the way they did during Nickel Grass...

 

[Dave Howery]

by pre-emptive strike, are we talking about a massive Israeli air strike like the one before the 6-day war? If so, that might have been an expensive option. The Arabs had been preparing for Israeli aircraft ever since their defeat in '67. Egypt had one of the densest anti-aircraft lines in the world along the Suez canal, and both Arab states had large numbers of handheld AA launchers. During the war, the Israelis had a lot of problems penetrating the Arab lines with their aircraft... for that matter, so did their tanks, due to the huge number of RPGs the Arabs had. It wasn't until the Egyptians moved beyond their defenses that the Israelis were able to defeat them, and then penetrate their defense lines....
If the Israelis did launch a pre-emptive air strike, the very first wave would likely do well due to sheer surprise, but subsequent waves would take heavy losses....