Israel/Jewish homeland in CP Victorious TL

[birdy]

apolgies for being late jumping on the bandwagon, also sorry if this belongs in the colloborative thread.

just wondered what peoples thoughts are on whether Israel or an analogue would exist should the CP 'win' ie dominant over mainland europe.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

Well, since most Jews in Europe live either in victorious CP nations or in Tsarist Russia and see Germany and Austria-Hungary as liberators...

 

[The Federalist]

The Jews in the Ottoman Empire will be fine, Jews along with Christians have always been treated equally there. If Zionism still becomes popular somehow, the Ottomans would have to create an autonomous Israel province of some sorts.

 

[Kidblast]

Perhaps a Jewish state in Galicia? Galicia had a high percent population of Jews. (I cannot remember what exactly... maybe 10%?)

 

[luakel]

Best the Jews could probably hope for would be some sort of autonomous zone around Tel Aviv- any Israel similar to that of OTL seems implausible.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Best the Jews could probably hope for would be some sort of autonomous zone around Tel Aviv- any Israel similar to that of OTL seems implausible.

There will be no autonomous Jewish zone - I think that's inconceivable. The Ottoman government at this time was on a strong centralization drive and even revoked the Organic Law that governed the autonomy of Mt. Lebanon. They are certainly not going to give any to Zionists, whose program is to create a Jewish state on Ottoman territory!

A CP victory is a pretty big setback for Zionism, at least Palestine-centered Zionism. I wonder if this would create a greater impetus for locating a Jewish state elsewhere? And if elswhere, where? If the war ends after something like the Balfour Declaration, the British government is in a bit of a pickle.

 

[luakel]

There will be no autonomous Jewish zone - I think that's inconceivable. The Ottoman government at this time was on a strong centralization drive and even revoked the Organic Law that governed the autonomy of Mt. Lebanon. They are certainly not going to give any to Zionists, whose program is to create a Jewish state on Ottoman territory!

Yeah, I'll agree here. The Jews will be allowed to live and work in Palestine if they wish, anything involving autonomy won't be allowed.

A CP victory is a pretty big setback for Zionism, at least Palestine-centered Zionism. I wonder if this would create a greater impetus for locating a Jewish state elsewhere? And if elswhere, where? If the war ends after something like the Balfour Declaration, the British government is in a bit of a pickle.

Depends how far the British have gotten up to this point- a Balfour Declaration would seem to indicate they're pretty far into Palestine. They might be able to get it in the peace deal, then again if the Brits would get any land I think they'd be more concerned about getting it in Iraq.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Yeah, I'll agree here. The Jews will be allowed to live and work in Palestine if they wish, anything involving autonomy won't be allowed.

Depends how far the British have gotten up to this point- a Balfour Declaration would seem to indicate they're pretty far into Palestine. They might be able to get it in the peace deal, then again if the Brits would get any land I think they'd be more concerned about getting it in Iraq.

Actually, they weren't very far in at all - the Ottomans didn't really collapse on this front until 1918. The Balfour declaration was made about a month before Jerusalem was captured.

 

[Homer]

IOTL, there were plans to colonize Anatolia with German settlers alongside tha Bagdad trails. I think in a CP-victorious Timeline, the Germans would concentrate on the Ottoman Empire as a vassal-like state - of course, this depends on how the Cp win, whether Britain is truly defeated...
Furthermore, someone once stated in this forum that the Zionists proposed a Jewish state to the Kaiser once. The Kaiser wouldn't be to reluctant to let all Jews emmigrate from Germany or its new possessions in the east. This could lead to a very easy installment of german war goals: The Germans wanted to colonize land in the east. When the Jews there go to Palestine under German "protection", Germans could move in. Germany would win a thankful, relyable ally next to the Suez channel, to.
The question is what state the Ottoman Empire is in after the war. The Germans expected it to be rather weakened and therefore dominated by Germany, and I'd agree with that the later the war ended.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Ther problem was that no Germans were particularly interested in moving to Anatolia, and you would never get enough to establish a colonial regime. Some went to Mesopotamia, where they tended to drop dead upon arrival.

As for the Zionist thing, I doubt the Germans would be happy to totally antagonize one of their only allies by trying to partition them.

In OTL, the Ottomans did not become German dominated as the war progressed - quite the opposite. After the collapse of Russia the Germans tried to prevent the Ottomans from occupying the Caucasus (in 1918) and failed to make a dent on them. I don't see how this would be any different if the CP actually win. That would make the Ottomans stronger than in OTL, not weaker, and Germany doesn't have much to pressure them with.

The Ottomans will recover from the war faster than Germany, as their economy was so heavily agricultural.

IOTL, there were plans to colonize Anatolia with German settlers alongside tha Bagdad trails. I think in a CP-victorious Timeline, the Germans would concentrate on the Ottoman Empire as a vassal-like state - of course, this depends on how the Cp win, whether Britain is truly defeated...
Furthermore, someone once stated in this forum that the Zionists proposed a Jewish state to the Kaiser once. The Kaiser wouldn't be to reluctant to let all Jews emmigrate from Germany or its new possessions in the east. This could lead to a very easy installment of german war goals: The Germans wanted to colonize land in the east. When the Jews there go to Palestine under German "protection", Germans could move in. Germany would win a thankful, relyable ally next to the Suez channel, to.
The question is what state the Ottoman Empire is in after the war. The Germans expected it to be rather weakened and therefore dominated by Germany, and I'd agree with that the later the war ended.

 

[Aussey]

You could try the Uganada Plan?

Or maybe the Falklands...or Western Australia?

 

[ninebucks]

Do the Zionists really need to wait for the Ottomans to grant them any kind of autonomy? In OTL, the ideology certainly was virulent enough to inspire many people to take up armed struggle. Could TTL witness some kind of War of Israeli Secession?

 

[luakel]

You could try the Uganada Plan?

Or maybe the Falklands...or Western Australia?

Who says there's an Israel at all? Without the Holocaust there's nothing to bring the plight of the Jews to worldwide attention.

Do the Zionists really need to wait for the Ottomans to grant them any kind of autonomy? In OTL, the ideology certainly was virulent enough to inspire many people to take up armed struggle. Could TTL witness some kind of War of Israeli Secession?

Them gaining independence IOTL involved an incredible amount of luck. Here it would be almost impossible.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Do the Zionists really need to wait for the Ottomans to grant them any kind of autonomy? In OTL, the ideology certainly was virulent enough to inspire many people to take up armed struggle. Could TTL witness some kind of War of Israeli Secession?

Against the Palestinian part of the Mandate, maybe, but not the entire Ottoman Empire - that's orders of magnitude more power to deal with. Plus, the Sephardic Jews, which formed a large majority of the empire's Jews, and held a priviledged position in it, were heavily anti-Zionist. I don't see under any circumstances how Zionists are going to seize Palestine, which is less than 5% Jewish at this time, from the Ottoman Empire.

 

[Susano]

It depends on how the OE coems out of it. If Germany wins but the OE is badly battered, then Germany might simpl ytry to, ah,s alvage as much of the OE as possible. Hertzl initially planned to have the Kaiser be the protector of the Jewish state, and planned that the states language be German. And I can see how some anti-semite-but-not-genocidal forces in Germany would want to solve "the Jewish question this way".
Before the war, the Jews in Germany were promised equal rights if they fought - which they did. Instead, the idea of the Jewish Homeland could be sold to them as reward instead.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

It depends on how the OE coems out of it. If Germany wins but the OE is badly battered, then Germany might simpl ytry to, ah,s alvage as much of the OE as possible. Hertzl initially planned to have the Kaiser be the protector of the Jewish state, and planned that the states language be German. And I can see how some anti-semite-but-not-genocidal forces in Germany would want to solve "the Jewish question this way".
Before the war, the Jews in Germany were promised equal rights if they fought - which they did. Instead, the idea of the Jewish Homeland could be sold to them as reward instead.

If the CP win, there is very little required to restore Ottoman control over everything they've lost. At the end of 1917 only small bits of Mesopotamia and Palestine had been lost. A part of the Hijaz was in revolt, easily crushed without a war, and Yemen was still under Ottoman control. With rail links established to Istanbul, I don't see how any whacky scheme to put Hertzl in charge of Palestine could possibly be worth throwing away the Ottomans as allies - especially since the spread of German influence in the East is so dependent upon Ottoman cooperation.

 

[Susano]

I must say I am (like maybe most here) not entriely informed a sto the situation of the OE during the war. I just assumed a scenario for a badly bruised OE.

Hm. Still, apart from the region, my logic IMO still makes some sense. So maybe indeed the Uganda scheme? GB gives up the colony, and the Germans try toe stablish a jewish state there...

 

[HurganPL]

German zionists under leadership of Max Bodenheimer tried to convice Germany to create a Jewish dominated state in territories of modern Ukraine, Belarus, Baltics and Poland but German Ober Ost declined the offer, also some other Jewish leaders were opposed because they rejected the idea of Jewish people representing German interests as Bodenheimer proposed.
But I guess Jews would gain more autonomy in territories taken from Russian Empire, which in turn would fuel much of anti-German resentment among Polish and Ukrainian nationalists.
The OTL proposal of Bodehaimer fuels resentment in nationalist circles in Poland to this day btw.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

I must say I am (like maybe most here) not entriely informed a sto the situation of the OE during the war. I just assumed a scenario for a badly bruised OE.

Hm. Still, apart from the region, my logic IMO still makes some sense. So maybe indeed the Uganda scheme? GB gives up the colony, and the Germans try toe stablish a jewish state there...

The Ottomans actually didn't lose all that much until the last months of the war - and even then the army wasn't really dangerously damaged, because a strategic withdrawal was conducted (this, BTW, was the REAL demonstration of Mustafa Kemal's military abilities) and the army, although lacking a lot of Arab deserters, still contained it's core of Turkish veterans, which were later demobilized per the terms of the Armistice, which the British then immediately violated in a treacherous occupation of large parts of Ottoman territory, like Mosul and Istanbul.

If the CP won, Ottoman military capability would be quite healthy, at least for dealing with putting down the Hijaz revolt and reestablishing control. As per OTL, if necessary, they are capable of several more years of warfare. I think people forget that the army Mustafa Kemal used from 1918-1923 was the same army as fought in 1914-1918. If it hadn't been demobilized, the war against the Greeks wouldn't have lasted very long.

 

[Michael B]

Given that the early Zionists had a number of objectives, not all of which were political, they would backpedal on the latter whilst working on one of the others, namely settling Eretz-Israel.

Using American and German money they could buy up land for farming. As long as they did not openly oppose the Ottoman empire and the numbers arriving in any one year were not high, it is doubtful that there would be any serious objections by the Ottomans or for that matter by local Arabs many of whom I know from quotes from their descendants did not have a problem with the new arrivals until things turned nasty.