Irish Military Intervention in Northern Ireland

[Father Maryland]

it does look like an M-1 carbine.

The Ruger Mini 14 in Military Use

In the late 1960s when L. James Sullivan and William B. Ruger were kicking around a scaled down version of the M14 rifle, they did not originally think of it as a military gun. This 'Mini-14' used a similar action and operating techniques as the...

www.rugertalk.com

Yeah the Mini 14 did (considering the small number of forces that purchased them) end up in some very weird services. I mean being adopted by less then a dozen forces and somehow ending up on the shoulders of the Royal Ulster Constabulary, US Navy Seals, US marine embassy guards, and the Bermuda Regiment is pretty odd.

 

[Byzantion]

What if at some point during the Troubles in Northern Ireland (between 1969 and 1997) the Republic of Ireland for whatever reason decides that it could no longer stand idly by and that it must intervene militarily in Northern Ireland?

In 1970 military the Irish Government examined the possibility of intervention in the North with the aim of protecting the Catholic population. Whether this was a seriously considered option or some sort of internal political manoeuvre is still up for debate however a military study was produced under the name EXERCISE ARMAGEDDON.
Armageddon as written was completely unworkable and was even regarded by the Irish General Staff as utter suicide. The plan was essentially for the Irish Defence Forces to invade Northern Ireland and seize Catholic majority areas such as Newry and Londonderry from the British.
For many, many reasons the plan would have never worked and the only certainty was that it would have made things a whole lot worse for people on both sides of the border. In a way the name Armageddon would have been an appropriate name to describe the outcome irrespective of whatever that may have been.

Is there a way Exercise Armageddon could have been made workable?

Leaving Armageddon aside is there any other reason why or method by which the Irish Defence Forces could have ended up crossing the border between 1969 and 1998?

How would the British Government and Armed Forces have responded to this eventuality?

How would the various factions within Northern Ireland have reacted?

What would the long term effects have been?

Leaving aside some sort of large scale Irish Defence Forces operation what would the effects have been of something smaller scale happening such as some sort of clash on the border between British and Irish forces that results in casualties being sustained by either side or something like an Irish Army Ranger Wing force being caught on the wrong side of the border (similar to when eight members of the SAS were arrested after being discovered south of the border)?

Smells like Falkland.

 

[Ditzy Vixen (RossN)]

The only way the South is going to invade the North would be in the event of a unilateral withdrawal by the British government or the complete collapse of the government in London to internal revolution or foreign war.

So... not likely.

 

[Father Maryland]

The only way the South is going to invade the North would be in the event of a unilateral withdrawal by the British government or the complete collapse of the government in London to internal revolution or foreign war.

So... not likely.

The problem with even that is that the local Regiments/territorial forces ( I'm guessing overwhelmingly protestant) combined with the RUC and the various illegal Protestant Unionist/Loyalist paramilitary militia's would still significantly outgun the deploying Irish force. Even if the Brits are leaving it's likely the local regiments, territorial forces, and RUC would end up siding with whatever new protestant dominated Northern Irish government ends up forming. That or heavy desertion including solders taking their weapons with them as they leave and join existing or new militia's. Since there was a lot of sympathy between British regiments and the general Protestant establishment you'd also likely see the rapidly exiting British troops "losing" or selling their weapons and gear (and the local militia's trying to steal as much kit as possible in the chaos. The resulting combination of militia's would probably heavily outnumber and outgun the intervening Irish forces.

And Northern Ireland doesn't really suit itself to Partition. There aren't neat continuous "Protestant Areas" and "Catholic Areas" with various cities being divided neighborhood by neighborhood or even street side by street side. Perhaps the Irish Defense forces could take some bordering heavily Catholic area's near the border but I don't see how they could take most of the Catholic area's of the territory. The only way I could see a neat post 1920 or so (When Ireland officially became the Free State) partition of Northern Ireland would be if their was some manner of mass scale ethnic cleansing (At least more so then OTL where a good bit did happen) or some sort of agreed upon "Population Exchanges" (Like the ones the Turks and greeks did after their post WW1 petered out) with an agreement that some predominately catholic area's near the OTL border would go to the Free State/Republic.

So you don't only need the Brits to unilaterally withdraw but have the new Protestant dominated government/Paramilitary groups agree to some sort of very limited intervention involving the occupation of some bordering heavily catholic regions.

 

[BELFAST]

The only way the South is going to invade the North would be in the event of a unilateral withdrawal by the British government or the complete collapse of the government in London to internal revolution or foreign war.

So... not likely.

In that case, the Irish would ask for UN peacekeeping troops to be deployed to Northern Ireland.

 

[Bob in Pittsburgh]

At some point I would expect Peter Sellers to make an appearance.

 

[BELFAST]

At some point I would expect Peter Sellers to make an appearance.

Maybe in the mode of the pink panther as an Irish army officer who starts the war by accident.

 

[stodge]

The only way the South is going to invade the North would be in the event of a unilateral withdrawal by the British government or the complete collapse of the government in London to internal revolution or foreign war.

So... not likely.

Not perhaps as unlikely as it seems.

Both the Conservative and Labour parties in the UK had contact with the IRA. The failure of Sunningdale along with the election and re-election of a Labour Government in February and October 1974 made the possibility of a British withdrawal from Ulster very real. Harold Wilson was interested in pulling out and making Ulster an independent Dominion - I suspect that would have led to civil war.

Dublin knew nothing of any of this and were appalled when it came out years later. Wilson resigned in 1976 and James Callaghan, his successor, was opposed to any British withdrawal from Ulster but if we suppose that Wilson announced in mid 1975 that, in exchange for a ceasefire with the IRA and the latter's agreement not to pursue any further terrorist action on the UK mainland, all British troops would withdraw from Ulster by October 31st 1975 and that the following day Ulster would become an independent Dominion within the British Commonwealth.

I simply can't see this ending well - it's basically what was seen in many post-colonial rapid withdrawals from India to Angola. Whether the differences are ideological or religious, the removal of the colonial power simply allows unresolved grievances to re-surface. Ulster would have fallen into the abyss of internecine strife and it would have been equally intolerable for both Dublin and London.

 

[BELFAST]

Not perhaps as unlikely as it seems.

Both the Conservative and Labour parties in the UK had contact with the IRA. The failure of Sunningdale along with the election and re-election of a Labour Government in February and October 1974 made the possibility of a British withdrawal from Ulster very real. Harold Wilson was interested in pulling out and making Ulster an independent Dominion - I suspect that would have led to civil war.

Dublin knew nothing of any of this and were appalled when it came out years later. Wilson resigned in 1976 and James Callaghan, his successor, was opposed to any British withdrawal from Ulster but if we suppose that Wilson announced in mid 1975 that, in exchange for a ceasefire with the IRA and the latter's agreement not to pursue any further terrorist action on the UK mainland, all British troops would withdraw from Ulster by October 31st 1975 and that the following day Ulster would become an independent Dominion within the British Commonwealth.

I simply can't see this ending well - it's basically what was seen in many post-colonial rapid withdrawals from India to Angola. Whether the differences are ideological or religious, the removal of the colonial power simply allows unresolved grievances to re-surface. Ulster would have fallen into the abyss of internecine strife and it would have been equally intolerable for both Dublin and London.

Indeed.
Northern Ireland as an independent dominion even if it do not go into civil war would go bankrupt quickly.

 

[stodge]

Indeed.
Northern Ireland as an independent dominion even if it do not go into civil war would go bankrupt quickly.

Perhaps if it were propped up by American money, it could survive.

The nearest parallel would be Lebanon and there are some parallels though it's a stretch to compare Belfast to Beirut.

The endgame becomes some sort of international arrangement to preserve whatever political and constitutional settlement is thrashed out by the sides (including the USA) so whether it's the 82nd Airborne or Indian or Fijian troops in blue berets patrolling the Falls and the Shankill that becomes the only guarantee of some form of law and order until a truly independent non-sectarian Ulster Police Force can be recruited and trained.

The second part of this becomes a kind of co-dominion (such as was proposed for the Falklands at one time) with Dublin renouncing Article 2 and agreeing to act as co-guarantor with London for Ulster's independence within the EEC.

 

[BELFAST]

The nearest parallel would be Lebanon and there are some parallels though it's a stretch to compare Belfast to Beirut.

The late Robert Fisk who covered both Beruit and Belfast as a reporter would be the one person who could comment on how similar Beruit and Belfast are.
I think Lebanon is more economicly viable than Northern Ireland was at the time.

 

[sparky42]

Perhaps if it were propped up by American money, it could survive.

The nearest parallel would be Lebanon and there are some parallels though it's a stretch to compare Belfast to Beirut.

The endgame becomes some sort of international arrangement to preserve whatever political and constitutional settlement is thrashed out by the sides (including the USA) so whether it's the 82nd Airborne or Indian or Fijian troops in blue berets patrolling the Falls and the Shankill that becomes the only guarantee of some form of law and order until a truly independent non-sectarian Ulster Police Force can be recruited and trained.

The second part of this becomes a kind of co-dominion (such as was proposed for the Falklands at one time) with Dublin renouncing Article 2 and agreeing to act as co-guarantor with London for Ulster's independence within the EEC.

I’m doubtful that even the Irish lobby could get something to the tune of 10 billion a year for NI, particular if it also involved US troops having to be deployed. Any NI that’s removed from central funding from the U.K. is going to quickly find its self in trouble, hell even maintaining a police force the size they did in OTL would be unlikely.

That being said, while officially Ireland might have been “outraged” when this came to light, I’m doubtful that within Government buildings they wouldn’t have actually known about the UKs actions (it’s highly doubtful they didn’t know the U.K. was talking to the IRA for example) and hell I think both of those Labour Leaders made fairly regular trips to meet their Irish counterparts during this period (have to check which one we nearly killed taking him to the airport).

In such a situation like this, I’d more expect NI to disintegrate rather than hold together as a Dominion.

 

[Seandineen]

Honestly, the UK would consider a US force as a double edged sword, sure they are NATO allies, however even then the Irish lobby is growing in the US political environment and there's been US support for Republican terrorists. Hell one of the "hopes" of the exercise would be to cause an international intervention to replace the UK forces on the ground in the North.

Catholics had already faced plenty of issues in the North by then (hell there's a clip on social media today from the BBC back in 1973 showing street after street of destroyed housing from the riots), it's more likely that it would be the Irish in GB that would be facing the worst of the abuse.

Could American catholic congressmen promote a US peacekeeping force in partnership with NATO?

 

[BELFAST]

Could American catholic congressmen promote a US peacekeeping force in partnership with NATO?

I think that would be the business of the members of the Senate.

 

[Seandineen]

quite correct.

 

[sparky42]

Could American catholic congressmen promote a US peacekeeping force in partnership with NATO?

I doubt the US would want an open ended comitment like that, along with the potential of causing stress within NATO even if the UK had decided to leave NI go.

 

[white crowe]

I doubt the US would want an open ended comitment like that, along with the potential of causing stress within NATO even if the UK had decided to leave NI go.

The US might like the opportunity for an open ended troop deployment to the Eastern side of the Atlantic if the UK is so badly off that they've had abandon NI.

 

[sparky42]

The US might like the opportunity for an open ended troop deployment to the Eastern side of the Atlantic if the UK is so badly off that they've had abandon NI.

They already h ave some of them without the need to deploy a division worth of troops if not more, you also risk similar incidents with the locals from both sides, I can’t see any US army general wanting to get into the mud of the Troubles.

 

[flasheart]

 

[sparky42]

Ah the FCA, if you thought the DOD hated the DF, just imagine what they think of the Reserve.