Ireland remains part of the United Kingdom: What happens to the volunteers?

[white crowe]

It's the classic Ireland related what-if that deals with such a volatile period of history that makes it very difficult to plot out even a "most probable" outcome. What if Ireland didn't leave the UK? It's difficult to plot out the specifics but assuming it's relatively peaceful and results in two home rule parliaments with a Northern Ireland of somewhere between 4 and 6 counties.

So assuming the best case scenario for the British takes place as outlined above with no major violence, what happens to the Irish and Ulster volunteers?

I can't imagine the Unionists giving up their arms as the guarantor of their separatism and Irish won't be giving up their weapons while the Ulster Volunteers are maintained. Disarming the Ulster Volunteers is likely a non-runner politically in London, while disarming the Irish volunteers and not the UVF surely leads to an equivalent to the War of Independence.

The existence of private armies that answer to regional governments of the UK has the potential to really reshape British politics. It seems very likely both volunteers will he unofficially, at a minimum, funded and supplied by the respective governments. Which gives them a much stronger hand dealing with other parts of the UK. I'm imagining, for instance, a party of Volunteers boarding a Welsh fishing boat in Irish waters or officials implenting unpopular measures being turned back at the ports.

So, does anyone else have any thoughts on the impact of the Volunteers on the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland?

 

[ShortsBelfast]

If both parties peacefully achieve (mostly) their aims a lot of the heat and light goes out of the situation. If you can't beat them assimilate them! Britain is actively seeking to expand its Territorial forces at this time. New badges and meet the Royal Ulster, Leinster, Munster and Connaught Territorial Regiments! When it becomes clear that promises have been (mostly) honoured, the numbers of volunteers will drop back until only the keen weekend soldiers and (like the UDR) impecunious small farmers who appreciate the attendance allowance and call out fees as a source of ready cash remain. Ulster doesn't feel that threatened and Home Rule Ireland doesn't feel that cheated - it is about haggling between London, Belfast and Dublin now, not about existential threats (well there's the Czar and the Kaiser of course but the Skibbereen Eagle has it's eye on them)

Officials implementing unpopular measures will be local administration not dispatched by Westminster. Britain will have retained direct responsibility for military matters and weights and measures basically. No customs dues at this time as Britain is Free Trade.

 

[Ditzy Vixen (RossN)]

I think doing this without violence is going to be very, very difficult. Perhaps not the organised counter-state in operation during the War of Independence but at the absolute minimum there will be riots and pogroms are far from impossible.

Permanent partition of six counties - and if the Ulster Unionists are strong enough to get any exclusion it will be six and it will be permanent - probably cripples Redmond and there is going to be civil war in the IPP which has the very real danger of turning into actual civil wat. Within a few years you'll see a hard line anti-British government in Dublin and probably abstentionism in Westminister.

 

[ShortsBelfast]

Unionists were lucky (?) to get six counties and it was partly as a reward for their fidelity in WW1 and partly through British post war exhaustion. Tyrone and Fermanagh both had (wafer thin) small Nationalist majorities. The Unionists themselves didn't want South Armagh but weren't going to give it up without concessions elsewhere. A non-violent constitutional Home-Rule movement that isn't going to get the four Protestant majority counties and hasn't conducted a terrorist (in Unionist eyes at least) campaign isn't going to face much more than rioting. The Unionist strongholds are safe and they are not going to jeopardise that for Bann Westers any more than they did OTL for Unionists south of Newry.

 

[white crowe]

@ShortsBelfast

It's an interesting view and definitely not unlikely but I'm not sure I'm as optimistic as you are about the volunteers drifting away in the short to medium term.

Political rhetoric in the South will remain focussed on eventually achieving a united Ireland which will see the Unionists continue to feel threatened and maintain the UVF. In turn, there will be a drive to maintain the Irish Volunteers as a counterweight.

Given that they role of both organisations is to do what the Government in London won't, I don't know if they'd be regularised/territorialised without a pressing need.

 

[Ditzy Vixen (RossN)]

Unionists were lucky (?) to get six counties and it was partly as a reward for their fidelity in WW1 and partly through British post war exhaustion. Tyrone and Fermanagh both had (wafer thin) small Nationalist majorities. The Unionists themselves didn't want South Armagh but weren't going to give it up without concessions elsewhere. A non-violent constitutional Home-Rule movement that isn't going to get the four Protestant majority counties and hasn't conducted a terrorist (in Unionist eyes at least) campaign isn't going to face much more than rioting. The Unionist strongholds are safe and they are not going to jeopardise that for Bann Westers any more than they did OTL for Unionists south of Newry.

The 1914 House of Lords Amending Bill was to exclude all Ulster. Six counties was the 'compromise' position between nine or four and I can't see Asquith of all people staking a hard line on four when six seems 'fair', especially given his desperation to avoid an election he would likely lose and his public pronouncements that there could be no 'coercion' of 'Ulster' - not that the Government retained that ability March 1914.

Ronan Fanning goes into these negotiations a lot in Fatal Path detailing how in the dark Asquith (and Lloyd George) kept Redmond over secret deals and negotiations with Bonar Law and Carson. Asquith used the threat of resignation, with the obvious idea that Bonar Law would come in to force greater concessions out of the Nationalists.

 

[ShortsBelfast]

Nine counties would have given Unionists and Nationalists virtual parity in Ulster, there is no way that Northern Unionists would have wanted this. It is a negotiating tactic for both the Liberal government and the Unionists and not a serious option for any party. Would be in the long term best interests of the Home Rulers but their supporters would never see that.
Carson is a southern Unionist and a "Remainer" in modern parlance. Essentially what he is trying to do is kill the Home Rule/independence movement by making it unworkable - as frightening, difficult, complicated and unrewarding as possible. But too much water has passed under the bridge by this stage for that to be a realistic proposition.
Craig and the Ulster Unionists and the British Conservatives are happy to go along with Carson in this because (a) it is hurting the Liberals electorally and (b) it is prolonging British rule in Ireland.
But once it is clear that the British are actually packing up and leaving, Ulster Unionists will ruthlessly discard Carson in order to safeguard their own specific interests just as they did OTL. Likewise the Tories (Bonar Law's personal sympathies notwithstanding) are using Ulster as a stick to beat the Liberals with. Their support for Ulster Unionists in office is going to be much more qualified than in opposition. Carson stated in his memoirs that Ulster's cause was discarded by the Tories in event of their gaining power.