Infanta Margarita Francisca

[Vitruvius]

Margarita Francisca was the youngest daughter of Philip III of Spain. She was born in 1610 and died just short of her 7th birthday. There's been a lot of discussion about her brother, the Cardinal Infante Fernando, living and even of her other brother Carlos living but what if she had lived and Philip had 3 daughters instead of 2? What role would she play in Spanish diplomacy during the 30YW and the Franco-Spanish War and given the looming Spanish succession crisis what role would her line have played should she have had children?

I assume the first impulse is to think of the Spanish Match and pair her with Charles Stuart. I'm personally skeptical that the Spanish Match would ever have worked out but I guess it's possible.

I looked at her from a diplomatic perspective and I think an alliance with Francesco d'Este is possible. He's of a lower rank but he allied with Spain right around the time he married so I think the old standby of alliance sealed through marriage could apply here.

Another possibility would be the widowed Gaston d'Orleans. But I'm not sure Louis XIII would be in favor of that.

And the last, wild card possibility I came up with was John of Braganza, OTL John IV the restorer, which would have all sorts of crazy possibilities for the Portuguese Restoration War.

Anyone have any other ideas?

 

[JonasResende]

Margarita Francisca was the youngest daughter of Philip III of Spain. She was born in 1610 and died just short of her 7th birthday. There's been a lot of discussion about her brother, the Cardinal Infante Fernando, living and even of her other brother Carlos living but what if she had lived and Philip had 3 daughters instead of 2? What role would she play in Spanish diplomacy during the 30YW and the Franco-Spanish War and given the looming Spanish succession crisis what role would her line have played should she have had children?

I assume the first impulse is to think of the Spanish Match and pair her with Charles Stuart. I'm personally skeptical that the Spanish Match would ever have worked out but I guess it's possible.

I looked at her from a diplomatic perspective and I think an alliance with Francesco d'Este is possible. He's of a lower rank but he allied with Spain right around the time he married so I think the old standby of alliance sealed through marriage could apply here.

Another possibility would be the widowed Gaston d'Orleans. But I'm not sure Louis XIII would be in favor of that.

And the last, wild card possibility I came up with was John of Braganza, OTL John IV the restorer, which would have all sorts of crazy possibilities for the Portuguese Restoration War.

Anyone have any other ideas?

TBH, I'm not so sure the Spanish Match is as much of a stretch as hindsight would have us believe. With it being his youngest daughter/sister, the king of Spain might be willing to be more pliable than he was with Maria OTL.

However, Spain could always diversify their diplomatic portfolio and attempt to get Margarita Francisca betrothed to Maximilian I of Bavaria. It's still a Habsburg bride - his OTL wife can go to Poland (I guess) or elsewhere. A match for Margarita and Gaston seems even more unlikely than one between Margarita and Charles I, TBH. Louis XIII's 1615 match to Anne of Austria has proved barren and unhappy, and I have no doubt the anti-Habsburg party at court (lead by Richelieu) would probably be against it.

Other options might be Ferdinando II of Tuscany (his OTL wife, Vittoria della Rovere can marry one of his younger brothers), who'd be Margarita's first cousin - their moms were sisters - or Wladyslaw IV of Poland (another first cousin, and he already tried for Anne of Austria before her French match OTL AFAIK).

Portugal one would need to be extremely prescient to see that it's going to break away from Spain in 1640 - with a POD in 1617. And I don't think that the Habsburgs would consider a Bragança an equal match for one of their archduchess-infantas at the time, though.

 

[Vitruvius]

Ok, I guess the other issue I see with the Spanish Match is that, age wise, it makes more sense to pair Maria Anna (b 1606) with Charles Stuart (b 1600) and Margarita Francisca (b 1610) with Archduke Ferdinand (b 1608) than the other way around. But I think it's difficult to get Maria Anna to marry and English Protestant, it failed spectacularly OTL.

I admit Gaston was unlikely. I was thinking at the end of the Mantuan War as part of the peace. Gaston would have been 3 years a widow but not yet in love with Marguerite of Lorraine. The match would have been more appropriate than his then current infatuation with Marie Louise Gonzague I think opposition would probably be stronger from Olivares on the Spanish side. He considered the settlement of the War of Mantuan Succession to be a defeat so giving away another Spanish Infanta to France in that context might be too much for him. Richelieu and Louis might not care about potential childlessness since they were worried OTL about Gaston remarrying and producing a male heir before the King. So it might be a case of 'my brother deserves to suffer a horrible Spanish wife too' especially if they think it secures the French position vis a vis Spain and extracts another fat dowry from the Spanish coffers.

I also thought about Ferdinando de' Medici but Vittoria della Rovere had been betrothed to him since she was only a couple years old and raised by their grandmother at the Tuscan court specifically to be his wife. Of course you could break that engagement but why would you. As the heiress to her family Vittoria is probably a wealthier bride than even a Spanish Infanta. I doubt Philip could cough up a huge dowry for a third sister. So it would be purely a prestige match, one that would drag Tuscany into Spain's conflict with France. Christina would never go for it, not without a lot of money or maybe some territories (Stato dei Presidi as dowry?) that Philip probably couldn't or wouldn't provide.

So I considered Francesco d'Este and Odoardo Farnese. Of the two Francesco was the one angling for a Spanish alliance around 1630-31. He wanted Spain to settle its debts with Modena, and asked to be made Admiral of Spain and Viceroy of Naples or Sicily. Philip offered to make him Viceroy of Portugal, the idea being that Modena would become a Spanish protectorate while Francesco was away in Lisbon. Francesco declined. But maybe if the offer came with the hand of a Spanish Infanta? The offer is so prestigious for Francesco that Philip probably wouldn't have to come up with too much of a dowry.

Maximilian of Bavaria could also work if she still isn't married by the time Max's first wife dies. Or if we're waiting that long John Casimir Vasa. He was on his way to Spain in 1638 to take up a post of Viceroy when his ship was caught in a storm and put into port in France where he was imprisoned on the orders of Richelieu. So maybe things go differently and he marries Margarita.

Anyways, down the road, I'm wondering what role her children would play. Any daughter she has would be an attractive bride for Leopold, Ferdinand Charles of Tyrol, maybe a second wife for Philip IV or Ferdinand III. And would a son try and carve out a piece of the crumbling Spanish Empire, maybe in league with France?

 

[JonasResende]

The thing with Vittoria is that she married as a noblewoman rather than a princess. Christine and Magdalene (the tutrici regents) were so devoted to the church that they were willing to say that the pope could take the dukedom of Urbino back (as a lapsed fief, rather than fighting for it) and settle for Vittoria with only her dowry and the art collection, IIRC. So to say that Christina won't try for a Spanish infanta (remember, assuming Margarita marries in the early 1630s, this is Spain before the disastrous Portuguese War of Independence, Masaniello's Revolt in Naples etc etc that hemorrhaged money, so the dowry should still be quite substantial - if not on a par with her older sisters', Felipe can use the excuse that she's only marrying a grand duke not a king) without either money or territory seems a bit of a stretch (when she agreed to a wife for her (grand)son who essentially didn't bring either). Not to mention that if Vittoria marries a younger brother and the Medici have direct links to Spain, Urbino might be resurrected as a Medici secundogeniture (not likely, but it's possible).

But, we're getting ahead of ourselves. The POD in 1617 could mean that Claudia de Medici gives birth to Vittorio della Rovere (I realize the name's unlikely, but I hope you get my point) in the 1620s. It could mean that her husband never gets infected by the parasite that killed him OTL - although her and husband's marriage was hardly what one could call a match made in heaven, which means that any child (even if Federico Ubaldo were to survive) would probably be an only child.

As to Bavaria, I was thinking butterflies could let Élisabeth Renée de Lorraine die off earlier, and thus Margarita could take her place sooner. The d'Este match sounds interesting, though, since I'm guessing that Francesco's OTL Parmese matches didn't bring him much in the way of dosh to bail him out?

Another possible husband are two Palatine princes. One being Heinrich Friedrich, eldest son of the Elector Palatine and Elizabeth Stuart. According to D.R. Watson's bio of Charles I, after the idea for a Spanish match crashed and burned so spectacularly, James I shifted into attempting to arrange a match for his grandson (Heinrich) to a Habsburg girl - either Maria Anna/Cacilie Renata of Austria (OTL) or Margarita would work here. Likewise, Philipp Wilhelm - father of the Neuburg bunch with his second wife - might likewise be considered. His territories that he inherited from the Jülich-Kleve-Berg duchy lie right alongside the Spanish Netherlands IIRC. So Spain/Neuburg might be interested in a match if Brandenburg starts trying to throw its weight around. Both boys are a bit young, but it's not as though Margarita's robbing a cradle in either case.

 

[Vitruvius]

I hadn't thought about Philip William, but it does make some sense. As you said it shores up the Spanish flank in the Netherlands. Only issue I would see would be his age, being younger. If they wait too long for the marriage and Spain's position deteriorates then Philip William and his father might not view the match as being worth it.

I also considered a double marriage scenario were Maria Anna is married to her uncle Leopold V and Margarita Francisca is married to Ferdinand III. Basically to settle the Habsburg succession and unite all the lines in lieu of the defunct Onate Treaty.

And speaking of Leopold V, if Claudia de' Medici has a son (I was a Francesco) I assume she'd stay in Urbino to assume a role in the Regency. This would deprive Leopold of his OTL wife. If that's a separate POD I'm not sure if he would marry at all as there's a dearth of good candidates.

 

[isabella]

Maybe if Philip III has three daughters we can have Anna married to Charles I of England, Maria Anna to Louis XIII and Margarita Francesca fo Ferdinand III... Maybe Anne was originally engaged to Charles’ elder brother (as Anne of Denmark wished that) and the engagement was transferred after his death? If Philip still has a daughter for Austria and one to offer to France for sealing the peace with a wedding he will be more interested to find a crown for the third than to what daughter marry to which

 

[Emperor Constantine]

@Vitruvius, I'd say that the existence of three daughters makes the Spanish match much more likely to go through, at least on the Spanish side. It means Spain can afford to ally with England without flipping a bird at their Austrian Cousins. I'll go into more detail later (I have TONS of notes on a successful Spanish match scenario that I'll get into later today) but suffice to say it was a near thing that only required the Count-Duke to be convinced of its viability, which he was for a short time.

 

[isabella]

@Vitruvius, I'd say that the existence of three daughters makes the Spanish match much more likely to go through, at least on the Spanish side. It means Spain can afford to ally with England without flipping a bird at their Austrian Cousins. I'll go into more detail later (I have TONS of notes on a successful Spanish match scenario that I'll get into later today) but suffice to say it was a near thing that only required the Count-Duke to be convinced of its viability, which he was for a short time.

Considering who both James and Anne wanted a Catholic bride for their eldest son and a Spanish match was their first choice (and Charles OTL married a French Catholic princess) I will say who the need of Philip to have a bride for France and one of Austria was the biggest reason for the failure of that match...
I have a question: if Philip still has a daughter for France and one for Austria and the Count-Duke can see England as a viable ally is possible see an engagement between Anne and Henry, Prince of Wales before her OTL engagement to Louis XIII (so Maria Anna will be engaged in France and Margarita in Austria)?

 

[Vitruvius]

Interesting, I guess I was just always under the impression that the religious and political considerations presented insurmountable obstacles to the Spanish Match. I know James and Anne were for it but I thought English public opinion, both in Parliament and on the streets was against it. My understanding was that, initially, James was won over by the Spanish ambassador, Gondomar, with whom he was unusually close. Gondomar made the argument that English Catholics would support James financially against Parliament's parsimony that plus the dowry from Madrid and James would be set. In short, again as I understand it, James and Gondomar got ahead of the situation. Gondomar underestimated the resistance in Madrid to an infanta marrying a Protestant and overestimated the strength and power of the English Catholics. James then seemed to think that the marriage could provide the money which would free him from Parliamentary restraints.

So by 1617 they had agreed to a large dowry of £600k but they spent two years at loggerheads over religion. The Spanish continued to demand that Charles convert Catholicism and that English Catholics be given freedom to worship publicly. James would only concede to allow the Infanta to remain Catholic and worship privately with a vague promise to reduce persecution of Catholics so long as they worshiped discretely in private. From the Spanish side I'm not sure the issue was having to choose between England and Austria so much as the choice of England being too much of a stretch mainly on religious grounds. James was willing to accept a Catholic bride for Charles (as indeed happened OTL) but Spain was not willing to accept a Protestant husband for its Infanta. I suppose if Margarita Francisca was personally amenable (in contrast to her sister who was not OTL) that alleviates some of the problems even if age wise the other pairing makes more sense. But there are still the other Spanish demands and the conversion requirement had apparently been stated explicitly to Philip by the Pope so that would be hard to get around.

Then Germany explodes when James' son in law, the Elector Palatine, claims the Bohemian throne and with the Twelve Years Truce with the Dutch almost at an end the Spanish have pressure on them as well. So by the early 1620s James was pursuing the marriage as part of a greater diplomatic effort to resolve the ongoing war in Germany where his son in law had recently been deposed and forced into exile (with the Palatinate occupied by Spanish troops from the Netherlands) and a loud chorus in England shouting for him to intervene to help Frederick and their co-religionists. So James hoped for peace and marriage with Spain so that Philip III would lean on his brother in law, the Emperor Ferdinand II, to make peace with the Elector Palatine, Frederick. Spain in turn realized that if they didn't throw James a bone he might cave to the reigning mood in England and intervene in Germany in support of the Protestants. To me this seems to complicate the idea of marrying one daughter to Charles and one daughter to Ferdinand III considering the war in Germany was never going to be resolved so easily. Absent Spain and England somehow imposing a Peace pulled like a rabbit out of a magic hat it would have been diplomatically impossible to marry one Infanta to Austria at the same time the other was married to England while the two nations were essentially on opposite sides of the ongoing conflict.

So it just seems to me like the negotiations for a marriage were really just an end to themselves to some extent. What should have been just a diplomatic gesture spiraled out of control because Gondomar and James got it in their heads they could some how make it work then the fantasy of a huge dowry, liberty for English Catholics and later of international Peace sustained the negotiations far longer than they should have lasted. But realistically none of those impulses ever seemed to break through the fundamental impasse of the religious question. Hence why I thought it somewhat unlikely to proceed even with a 'spare' Infanta available. Personally I think you'd need a different POD that more dramatically shifts the international political order or the domestic situation in England to enable the Spanish Match.

 

[JonasResende]

@Vitruvius: Was Maria really so set against the Protestant match? ISTR reading that she wasn't entirely made of stone to Charles' advances (though, then again, if my other option was to marry my cousin I guess I'd also be flattered by a knock-kneed Scotsman with an accent coming to pay court to me in person). She was described as blushing whenever Charles' name was mentioned, for instance. Although the sources that I read this in were a bio on Velazquez and Hume's very very dated Queens of Old Spain AFAIK

 

[Vitruvius]

I'm not sure. Could it maybe have been one of those things, kind of a schoolgirl crush 'oh he's so dreamy why won't he just convert, he'd be perfect if only he wasn't a heretic'. I could see why a girl who has been (literally) cloistered at the Escorial for her whole childhood might be initially taken when a Prince from a far away land shows up to woo her.

Also just to reiterate, I don't think the Spanish Match is impossible to put off I just didn't see how this POD gets you there. I think having an extra daughter means a marriage to England would happen along with a marriage to Austria and that only seems practical if Philip and James can somehow arrange for a universal Peace, or at least a peace settlement between Frederick and Ferdinand. And that just seems beyond their capabilities unless something else happens dramatically different than OTL.