Indonesia ATL: The Presidency of Try Sutrisno (1997-)
- Thread starter GSD310
- Start date
Some replies to recent comments:
@Kosaki_MacTavish and @focus9912 are correct about Sarney's government being more friendly towards the US.
I guess what I want to show is that in ITTL's multipolar world, one doesn't necessarily have to be hostile to the US for the idea of multipolarism to strike a chord. Primakov's emergence "made it okay" for other nations of stature or those aspiring to be a "pole" to make more noise and become more assertive than their OTL counterparts but it doesn't mean that everyone becomes anti-US. The BRICI is probably a symptom of this increasing assertiveness, meeting for the first time 6 years before its OTL version.
On Bolivia:
-Chavez' overthrow strengthens anti-American sentiment in Bolivia. Evo Morales gets the benefit of this on top of the unpopularity surrounding the unpopular Cochabamba water privatization.
-Evo Morales tops the presidential election and the Movement for Socialism tops the legislative elections though both get less than 50%.
-National Congress now votes for president because Morales has less than 50% of the votes.
-Morales gets elected because the Movement for Socialism combines its votes with the MIR-FRI and the Pachakuti Indigenous Movement; the latter is even more extreme than Movement for Socialism (OOC: you have to be when you criticize Morales as a neoliberal)
When Try mentions Bolivia, it's pretty much his way of saying "We're going to depart from the Washington Consensus and not do everything according to that but we're far away from being socialists."
@wahyubison if we're understanding the internal issues of China the same way, there'll be less emphasis on equitable development unlike in OTL with Hu/Wen in charge. The emphasis will be more on economic growth and also on adopting a more assertive stance.
Regarding China:
The Politburo Standing Committee are as follows:
*Luo Gan. General Secretary/President/Chairman of the Central Military Commission. Protege of Li Peng who advocated hardline approach during Tiananmen Square.
*Li Ruihuan. Chairman of the National People's Congress. Considered most politically liberal out of the PSC members.
*Wu Bangguo. Premier. Part of Jiang Zemin's Shanghai Clique. Jiang's bargain is that he will give up power if "one of his own" gets the premier's position.
*Zeng Qinghong. Chairman of the Chinese People's Consultative Political Congress. Another Jiang protege.
*Hu Jintao. Vice President. Second term as VP.
*Wen Jiabao. Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection.
* Li Changcun. Vice Premier. Close to Jiang though has not served in Shanghai. Mitigated impact of Asian Financial Crisis in China (as in OTL).
Regarding new capital city for Indonesia: At the moment, no new capital cities are envisioned.
@Kosaki_MacTavish and @focus9912 are correct about Sarney's government being more friendly towards the US.
I guess what I want to show is that in ITTL's multipolar world, one doesn't necessarily have to be hostile to the US for the idea of multipolarism to strike a chord. Primakov's emergence "made it okay" for other nations of stature or those aspiring to be a "pole" to make more noise and become more assertive than their OTL counterparts but it doesn't mean that everyone becomes anti-US. The BRICI is probably a symptom of this increasing assertiveness, meeting for the first time 6 years before its OTL version.
On Bolivia:
-Chavez' overthrow strengthens anti-American sentiment in Bolivia. Evo Morales gets the benefit of this on top of the unpopularity surrounding the unpopular Cochabamba water privatization.
-Evo Morales tops the presidential election and the Movement for Socialism tops the legislative elections though both get less than 50%.
-National Congress now votes for president because Morales has less than 50% of the votes.
-Morales gets elected because the Movement for Socialism combines its votes with the MIR-FRI and the Pachakuti Indigenous Movement; the latter is even more extreme than Movement for Socialism (OOC: you have to be when you criticize Morales as a neoliberal)
When Try mentions Bolivia, it's pretty much his way of saying "We're going to depart from the Washington Consensus and not do everything according to that but we're far away from being socialists."
@wahyubison if we're understanding the internal issues of China the same way, there'll be less emphasis on equitable development unlike in OTL with Hu/Wen in charge. The emphasis will be more on economic growth and also on adopting a more assertive stance.
Regarding China:
The Politburo Standing Committee are as follows:
*Luo Gan. General Secretary/President/Chairman of the Central Military Commission. Protege of Li Peng who advocated hardline approach during Tiananmen Square.
*Li Ruihuan. Chairman of the National People's Congress. Considered most politically liberal out of the PSC members.
*Wu Bangguo. Premier. Part of Jiang Zemin's Shanghai Clique. Jiang's bargain is that he will give up power if "one of his own" gets the premier's position.
*Zeng Qinghong. Chairman of the Chinese People's Consultative Political Congress. Another Jiang protege.
*Hu Jintao. Vice President. Second term as VP.
*Wen Jiabao. Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection.
* Li Changcun. Vice Premier. Close to Jiang though has not served in Shanghai. Mitigated impact of Asian Financial Crisis in China (as in OTL).
Regarding new capital city for Indonesia: At the moment, no new capital cities are envisioned.
Oops. Make that "Try has now been to all the habitable continents".
Well, i meant by the reporter's question about Try going into "hostile territory", at first i thought that the reporter implied that Sarney is not that pro-US compared to Try, but then again it can be meant by meeting with Primakov and Luo.
I really loved this recurring theme, tbh. Primakov staying really reduced the bipolar geopolitical trend.
Soon enough, the two would run into each other, i hope.
So unknowingly, Luo is a parallel of Try himself, eh?
Okay, Hu Jintao's focus on peaceful rise and economic development OTL in a way resembles Sumarlin's TTL preference for economic spending rather than military lol
Yeah, but nevertheless, i thought Jonggol would stayed on course of becoming its own Kotapraja sometime in the future, regardless it become a future capital or not.
Lol
Well...there is still more than 4 years left...perhaps there could be an Indonesia expedition to Antarctica...and Try decided to visit the members of the expedition there...
Iam just poking fun. Maybe have him go on to Antarctica for vacation? I’ve heard that has become more popular.
253: BRICI Part II
27th May 2003:
President Try Sutrisno sat at his part of the table as he watched the discussion going on in front of him, realizing that his “not yet, the occasion had not arrived yet” to BRIC membership was going to be yesterday’s news. It was the second day of what is now dubbed as the BRIC Informal Summit and President of Brazil Roseana Sarney and Prime Minister of India Atal Bihari Vajpayee were each now proposing reform of the United Nations’ Security Council and in particular proposing that Brazil and India be permanent members of the United Nations’ Security Council.
Vajpayee and Sarney supported each other, Try as well as President of Russia Yevgeny Primakov supported Brazil and India’s intentions while President of China Luo Gan expressed agreement “in principle” but saying that he would give unqualified support if Africa also got a Security Council permanent seat.
After the session broke up and lunch, Try met with Vajpayee. Try was accompanied by Minister of Foreign Affairs Marzuki Darusman and State Secretary Edi Sudrajat while Vajpayee was accompanied by Minister of External Affairs Yashwant Sinha.
Vajpayee thanked Try for the support for India’s proposed reform of the United Nations Security Council, to which Try joked said that it was just a matter of time before the matter emerged in their conversations. Try asked what was the rationale behind China’s attitude and Vajpayee replied that “it would seem” that China does not want to share its status as the only Asian member of the Security Council with a nation that could become an economic rival.
The discussion went to India’s geopolitical situation with Sinha telling the tale. In Pakistan, President Aziz Khan continues to consolidate his position by backing and facilitating the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) Coalition’s victory at the Pakistani General Elections, securing the appointment of Fazal-u-Rehman as Prime Minister of Pakistan, and proposing constitutional amendments which would restore the president’s power to dismiss parliament and allow Aziz to hold on to the Chief of the Army Staff’s position. On the foreign policy front, Aziz has met with Prime Minister of Bangladesh Khaleda Zia to deepen its ties with that country and of course there is Pakistan’s close relationship with China.
“Putting aside Bangladesh for the moment, all three of you have nuclear capability and that’s concerning”, Try said.
“Of Pakistan and China, I am more concerned about Pakistan given President Aziz and Prime Minister Fazal’s stance and attitude on world affairs, most notably the War on Terror. China at the very least could be relied upon to keep Pakistan from escalating matters it does not want a situation that jeopardizes the general peace it needs for its economic development”, Vajpayee explained “We are bracing ourselves for a two-front scenario, diplomatically or otherwise, though less of China lumbering around behind our back would not hurt.”
There was silence in the room for a few seconds as they processed the information.
“Mr. Prime Minister, India has a close relationship to Russia, are they of any help in this situation?” asked Marzuki “And more broadly, what are the odds that the Chinese and the Russians are not without their own internal tensions?”
“That’s a great question”, Vajpayee said “You already got weapons coming your way from the Russians and yesterday it was Russia who told China to back off when it was asking you to be firm on whether or not you want to join BRIC and who said that there must always be a place for Indonesia in this organization, doesn’t that tell you something?”
“President Luo gave me the sense when we met that all was well between the two because China did not raise a complaint when Russia gave us credit to buy weapons”, Try said.
“That’s face-saving way of putting it, Mr. President”, Vajpayee said “But if President Primakov’s account is to be treated as an accurate first-hand factual account, the Chinese were not even told in advance about the weapons credit.”
Try nodded as he tried to comprehend it.
“I’ve always thought that it was Russia’s way of showing displeasure that China’s aid to Yugoslavia during this conflict would be of a non-military nature”, Try said “But that ultimately they’ll continue to present a united front to the world, especially to the United States.”
“You’re right that they’ll want to try to present a united front to the world but you’re also right, Mr. President and Mr. Minister of Foreign Affairs, that there is tension between Russia and China”, Vajpayee said “I had dinner with President Primakov last night and he invited me to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).”
“Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan…” Marzuki muttered trying to remember the name of SCO’s members “My question is why would Russia want India in the SCO?”
“Because China’s lobbying for Russia to invite Pakistan to join the SCO, Russia’s having a hard time saying no, and Russia wants to have its own big addition to the SCO in response to China’s proposal of Pakistan”, Sinha explained.
“So influence is a potential cause of tension between Russia and China”, Marzuki said “Who’s in charge, who’s in charge, who’s setting the agenda…”
“That’s right, Mr. Minister of Foreign Affairs”, said Sinha.
“What did you say in response to President Primakov?” asked Try.
“I told him that India’s not interested in the SCO right now”, Vajpayee replied “But actually my aim here is I don’t want Russia to be able to compensate Pakistan joining with Chinese support with India joining with Russian support. That would just restore balance in Russia and China’s relationship. The goal here is to make sure there’s a wedge between Russia and China.”
The discussion went on. Vajpayee expressed concerns that the United States will downgrade the War on Terror in importance because of its focus on Yugoslavia saying that Osama Bin Laden and Al Qaeda is still at large and that “for all we know”, Bin Laden is in Pakistan and nothing is being done about it. Sinha said, to Try’s agreement, that having a stable Afghanistan would help.
This led to Vajpayee bemoaning Australia’s “undermining” of Indonesia wanting to procure T-54/T-55s in Afghanistan because this was both depriving Afghanistan of aid and preventing Indonesia from increasing its military capability. Sinha offered the opportunity for Indonesia to send a delegation to India to survey possible military procurements but said that perhaps “in light of Indonesia’s recent military exercise”, exchanges to improve Indonesian officer and personnel capability would also be useful. Try smiled sourly while Marzuki thanked Vajpayee and Sinha for the offer on his behalf.
There was a gala dinner that night attended by the five delegations and involving speeches and toasts by the five leaders.
28th May 2003:
Try’s breakfast was with a roomful of BRIC business delegations including a business delegation from Indonesia. Delivering the keynote speech in this networking breakfast, Try said that even though Indonesia is an emerging economy, it is only seeking the improvement rather than the overturning of the existing economic order. The existing economic order needs to be improved upon if it is to provide more opportunity for more nations to be prosperous.
When asked why he did not want to join BRIC, Try repeated his lines that he would, for the moment, pass on membership because the occasion for it had not arisen yet.
Back at the Summit itself, BRIC’s formation was being underlined. The declaration announcing BRIC’s formation was finalized stating that they represented the world’s emerging economies and that their increased economic weight meant that they should be more involved in the decisionmaking when it comes to the global economy. The declaration expressed support for the United Nations Security Reform though it did not specify Brazil and India by name. Indonesia’s status as a dialogue partner was underlined, as is BRIC’s resolution to continue meeting with a summit to be held in Russia in 2004.
Unofficially the grouping was known as BRIC + 1 or BRIC + I in acknowledgment that Indonesia was not a member.
There was a “family photo” with all five leaders and then it was time to head off in separate directions. Try and Primakov apologized to each other for not finding the time to talk during the summit but said that they will see each other at the G-8.
Not long after all the fanfare and after calling on Sarney to farewell her, Try and the Indonesian delegation arrived at Brasilia’s Juscelino Kubitschek International Airport where they departed for their next destination.
29th May 2003:
It was just as well that the Netherlands also observed Ascension Day Holiday. After the long flight from Brazil, Try and his delegation could observe a light schedule and their day did not begin until a meet and greet lunch with the Indonesians living in the Netherlands at the Indonesian Embassy to the Netherlands. There was a loud applause when Try made his entrance and chants of “5 More Years! 5 More Years!” in relief that he had been re-elected.
Try found these Indonesians, living far from home to be knowledgeable about developments in Indonesia. One of the questions he received as he sat down to take questions was news from the last 24 hours that the Chairwoman of the PKPB Tutut Soeharto was offering Ginandjar Kartasasmita a PKPB membership. Try only replied that Ginandjar was a private citizen and that it was his decision and right to join whichever political party he chooses.
As he rested at his hotel, Try chatted with Minister of Agriculture Sarwono Kusumaatmadja and Edi. Sarwono reported that Leader of the PKPB in the DPR/Treasurer of the PKPB continues to gather the necessary support from within the PKPB to both request for an Extraordinary PKPB National Congress and be victorious in the contest for the chairmanship. Try told both Sarwono and Edi about his conversation with Minister of Home Affairs Sintong Panjaitan.
Edi tended to agree with Sintong’s advice that the aim is to ensure Tutut’s ultimate defeat rather than simply a victory for Akbar’s. Sarwono said that Akbar understands that Try would have his own considerations but is nevertheless hoping for Try to declare his support for Akbar somewhere along the line.
30th May 2003:
Try and Tuti began the day with a visited the Huis ten Bosch to pay their respects to Queen of the Netherlands Beatrix and have a photo-op. Try then departed to the Binnehof where he was welcomed by Prime Minister of the Netherlands Hans Dijskstal and Minister of Foreign Affairs Jan Peter Balkenende. Try was joined by Marzuki Darusman and Edi Sudrajat.
As they had only met four months prior, Try and Dijkstal did not agree on anything new. Dijkstal would recall attempting to speak about progress in the “humanitarian intervention” in Yugoslavia but that Try would have none of that, focusing instead on Afghanistan. Try said that Afghanistan needed to be bolstered so that it had the capacity to fight the remnants of the Taliban and Al Qaeda including with aid and that in Indonesia’s case, the aid it is able to provide Afghanistan is to procure the Soviet T-54/T-55 tanks and pay the Afghanistan government with cash. Try concluded by saying this was a win-win situation for Indonesia, Afghanistan, and all those who participated in Operation Enduring Freedom if only those “who dislike to see such things” would get out of the way.
Dijkstal was thrown off-balance and it fell to Balkenende to explain the situation. Saying that because of the United Kingdom’s non-participation, Australia had committed more troops to Yugoslavia, that as a result “they have more of a say” within the United States’ coalition, and that they are not comfortable with Indonesia purchasing such weapons. Balkenende then conveyed Australia’s sentiments in coalition deliberations, namely “What are Indonesia’s intentions trying to get more weapons on top of the military aid given by the United States and Australia and the weapons credit by Russia just a few short months ago?”
“We are always on the record as saying that our economy is at a place where we can afford such defense spending and that we are trying to have a level of defense spending that reflects our current position in international affairs whereas previously our defense spending was low”, Marzuki replied “To that we add that military aid and weapons credit does not mean we will not be spending more on weapons, four months ago was an old fiscal year, now we’re in a new financial year.”
“Indonesia feels aggrieved that we’re trying to do things the right way by communicating with those participating in Enduring Freedom, including the Netherlands when expressing our interest in the tanks” Try said “We could have just turned around and gone to the Russians, they probably have a larger stock of those tanks, but we didn’t. I’m just wondering if doing things the right way is the wrong way to go?”
Dijkstal and Balkenende glanced at each other as though to note what Try had said so that it could be passed along to the White House.
Attempting to change the tone of the meeting, Dijkstal said with a broad smile that the Netherlands did not have the reservations that “others” have about Indonesia procuring military equipment and asked Try if Indonesia would be interested in Damen’s products to add to the 4 Sigma Corvettes already delivered. Try was politely non-commital saying that Minister of Defense and Security Wiranto was at Damen’s shipyard at that very moment and that he would wait for Wiranto’s report.
Not long after that the meeting ended and Try attended Friday Prayer at Al-Hikmah Mosque before returning to his hotel to have lunch. As luck would have it, Wiranto was the only one of his delegation who had returned; having spent the entire morning at Damen. Try told Wiranto what had happened and how Dijkstal suddenly turned “salesman” and started asking him if he wanted more Damen ships.
“It’s not only Damen, Mr. President”, Wiranto reported “In Brazil it was Avibras and I’ve got meetings with lined up with people from defense ministries and the defense industry alike at the G-8.”
“So the chances of us getting those tanks from Afghanistan are slim then, Wir?” asked Edi.
“It’s very likely we’ll be notified of this at the G-8”, said Wiranto “But as I’ve said, when we communicated our interest in those Soviet tanks to the participants of Operation Enduring Freedom that we advertised to a lot of people we’re on the lookout for weapons. This on top of other pieces of information such as that we’re increasing defense spending, that we’re looking to strengthen our military and that the President has another 5 years.”
Try turned to Marzuki, non-verbally asking for his opinion.
“Weaponry and military equipment, that’s where we can try to drive a wedge between Australia and the rest of the West” Marzuki said “Let’s try to make the United States at least feel annoyed that they’ve listened to Australia twice, the first time on the F-16s and the second time on these tanks, and the consequence is us looking for weapons from sources they don’t necessarily approve.
And if we buy Russian, we’ll be trying to drive a wedge between Russia and China too. Russia can’t ignore an market for its weapons and there’s the added of bonus of showing its independence vis and vis China.”
There was silence between the four.
“Well, that we got invited to the big kids’ table is a lucky break for our nation”, Try “Let’s make sure it counts.”
---
Much as in OTL, India and Brazil are advocating UNSC reforms. Much as in OTL, China is not warm towards the idea of India in the UNSC.
For those missing my “around the world update”, we get a mini-update of what happens in South Asia specifically in Pakistan. Aziz Khan taking steps parallel to that of Musharraf in OTL to consolidate power except it reflects his leanings.
On OTL India’s “two-front” mindset https://piyushchaubey.com/uploads/pdfs/bbcffbc80fc4275c69f3285e7a354d9e.pdf
The significance of Marzuki being the one to ask about Russia in the meeting with Vajpayee is based on information regarding Marzuki’s life where some interesting trivia could be found:
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marzuki_Darusman)
-He’s the son of Suryono Darusman a diplomat and Indonesian Ambassador to the Soviet Union (1973-1976)
-He spent his formative years in Europe following his father around on the latter’s postings. According to Tempo, he event went to university in East Germany https://majalah.tempo.co/read/memoa...n-didepak-dari-dpr-karena-ingin-jadi-presiden
OTL Marzuki went on to become a human rights advocate/activists and Attorney General under Wahid so we don’t really get to see him talk about foreign policy except in the context of human rights but it’s intriguing what possible thoughts or opinions he has on foreign affairs because of the time he had spent in Europe and seeing his father being ambassador to the USSR.
Uzbekistan is not in ITTL SCO. It has chosen to remain to be part of GUUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, and Moldova).
I wanted Try to visit a nation which is a part of the US coalition en route to the G-8 so that he can express his grievances. It came down to Spain and the Netherlands. My gut told me to go with the Netherlands. I’m saving the United Kingdom for the G-8 itself.
Why is Indonesia attending the G-8? Because it is the practice of the G-8 to invite certain non G-8 nations to G-8 summits (http://www.g8.utoronto.ca/oxford/g8rg-ox-objectives2007.pdf)
President Try Sutrisno sat at his part of the table as he watched the discussion going on in front of him, realizing that his “not yet, the occasion had not arrived yet” to BRIC membership was going to be yesterday’s news. It was the second day of what is now dubbed as the BRIC Informal Summit and President of Brazil Roseana Sarney and Prime Minister of India Atal Bihari Vajpayee were each now proposing reform of the United Nations’ Security Council and in particular proposing that Brazil and India be permanent members of the United Nations’ Security Council.
Vajpayee and Sarney supported each other, Try as well as President of Russia Yevgeny Primakov supported Brazil and India’s intentions while President of China Luo Gan expressed agreement “in principle” but saying that he would give unqualified support if Africa also got a Security Council permanent seat.
After the session broke up and lunch, Try met with Vajpayee. Try was accompanied by Minister of Foreign Affairs Marzuki Darusman and State Secretary Edi Sudrajat while Vajpayee was accompanied by Minister of External Affairs Yashwant Sinha.
Vajpayee thanked Try for the support for India’s proposed reform of the United Nations Security Council, to which Try joked said that it was just a matter of time before the matter emerged in their conversations. Try asked what was the rationale behind China’s attitude and Vajpayee replied that “it would seem” that China does not want to share its status as the only Asian member of the Security Council with a nation that could become an economic rival.
The discussion went to India’s geopolitical situation with Sinha telling the tale. In Pakistan, President Aziz Khan continues to consolidate his position by backing and facilitating the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) Coalition’s victory at the Pakistani General Elections, securing the appointment of Fazal-u-Rehman as Prime Minister of Pakistan, and proposing constitutional amendments which would restore the president’s power to dismiss parliament and allow Aziz to hold on to the Chief of the Army Staff’s position. On the foreign policy front, Aziz has met with Prime Minister of Bangladesh Khaleda Zia to deepen its ties with that country and of course there is Pakistan’s close relationship with China.
“Putting aside Bangladesh for the moment, all three of you have nuclear capability and that’s concerning”, Try said.
“Of Pakistan and China, I am more concerned about Pakistan given President Aziz and Prime Minister Fazal’s stance and attitude on world affairs, most notably the War on Terror. China at the very least could be relied upon to keep Pakistan from escalating matters it does not want a situation that jeopardizes the general peace it needs for its economic development”, Vajpayee explained “We are bracing ourselves for a two-front scenario, diplomatically or otherwise, though less of China lumbering around behind our back would not hurt.”
There was silence in the room for a few seconds as they processed the information.
“Mr. Prime Minister, India has a close relationship to Russia, are they of any help in this situation?” asked Marzuki “And more broadly, what are the odds that the Chinese and the Russians are not without their own internal tensions?”
“That’s a great question”, Vajpayee said “You already got weapons coming your way from the Russians and yesterday it was Russia who told China to back off when it was asking you to be firm on whether or not you want to join BRIC and who said that there must always be a place for Indonesia in this organization, doesn’t that tell you something?”
“President Luo gave me the sense when we met that all was well between the two because China did not raise a complaint when Russia gave us credit to buy weapons”, Try said.
“That’s face-saving way of putting it, Mr. President”, Vajpayee said “But if President Primakov’s account is to be treated as an accurate first-hand factual account, the Chinese were not even told in advance about the weapons credit.”
Try nodded as he tried to comprehend it.
“I’ve always thought that it was Russia’s way of showing displeasure that China’s aid to Yugoslavia during this conflict would be of a non-military nature”, Try said “But that ultimately they’ll continue to present a united front to the world, especially to the United States.”
“You’re right that they’ll want to try to present a united front to the world but you’re also right, Mr. President and Mr. Minister of Foreign Affairs, that there is tension between Russia and China”, Vajpayee said “I had dinner with President Primakov last night and he invited me to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).”
“Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan…” Marzuki muttered trying to remember the name of SCO’s members “My question is why would Russia want India in the SCO?”
“Because China’s lobbying for Russia to invite Pakistan to join the SCO, Russia’s having a hard time saying no, and Russia wants to have its own big addition to the SCO in response to China’s proposal of Pakistan”, Sinha explained.
“So influence is a potential cause of tension between Russia and China”, Marzuki said “Who’s in charge, who’s in charge, who’s setting the agenda…”
“That’s right, Mr. Minister of Foreign Affairs”, said Sinha.
“What did you say in response to President Primakov?” asked Try.
“I told him that India’s not interested in the SCO right now”, Vajpayee replied “But actually my aim here is I don’t want Russia to be able to compensate Pakistan joining with Chinese support with India joining with Russian support. That would just restore balance in Russia and China’s relationship. The goal here is to make sure there’s a wedge between Russia and China.”
The discussion went on. Vajpayee expressed concerns that the United States will downgrade the War on Terror in importance because of its focus on Yugoslavia saying that Osama Bin Laden and Al Qaeda is still at large and that “for all we know”, Bin Laden is in Pakistan and nothing is being done about it. Sinha said, to Try’s agreement, that having a stable Afghanistan would help.
This led to Vajpayee bemoaning Australia’s “undermining” of Indonesia wanting to procure T-54/T-55s in Afghanistan because this was both depriving Afghanistan of aid and preventing Indonesia from increasing its military capability. Sinha offered the opportunity for Indonesia to send a delegation to India to survey possible military procurements but said that perhaps “in light of Indonesia’s recent military exercise”, exchanges to improve Indonesian officer and personnel capability would also be useful. Try smiled sourly while Marzuki thanked Vajpayee and Sinha for the offer on his behalf.
There was a gala dinner that night attended by the five delegations and involving speeches and toasts by the five leaders.
28th May 2003:
Try’s breakfast was with a roomful of BRIC business delegations including a business delegation from Indonesia. Delivering the keynote speech in this networking breakfast, Try said that even though Indonesia is an emerging economy, it is only seeking the improvement rather than the overturning of the existing economic order. The existing economic order needs to be improved upon if it is to provide more opportunity for more nations to be prosperous.
When asked why he did not want to join BRIC, Try repeated his lines that he would, for the moment, pass on membership because the occasion for it had not arisen yet.
Back at the Summit itself, BRIC’s formation was being underlined. The declaration announcing BRIC’s formation was finalized stating that they represented the world’s emerging economies and that their increased economic weight meant that they should be more involved in the decisionmaking when it comes to the global economy. The declaration expressed support for the United Nations Security Reform though it did not specify Brazil and India by name. Indonesia’s status as a dialogue partner was underlined, as is BRIC’s resolution to continue meeting with a summit to be held in Russia in 2004.
Unofficially the grouping was known as BRIC + 1 or BRIC + I in acknowledgment that Indonesia was not a member.
There was a “family photo” with all five leaders and then it was time to head off in separate directions. Try and Primakov apologized to each other for not finding the time to talk during the summit but said that they will see each other at the G-8.
Not long after all the fanfare and after calling on Sarney to farewell her, Try and the Indonesian delegation arrived at Brasilia’s Juscelino Kubitschek International Airport where they departed for their next destination.
29th May 2003:
It was just as well that the Netherlands also observed Ascension Day Holiday. After the long flight from Brazil, Try and his delegation could observe a light schedule and their day did not begin until a meet and greet lunch with the Indonesians living in the Netherlands at the Indonesian Embassy to the Netherlands. There was a loud applause when Try made his entrance and chants of “5 More Years! 5 More Years!” in relief that he had been re-elected.
Try found these Indonesians, living far from home to be knowledgeable about developments in Indonesia. One of the questions he received as he sat down to take questions was news from the last 24 hours that the Chairwoman of the PKPB Tutut Soeharto was offering Ginandjar Kartasasmita a PKPB membership. Try only replied that Ginandjar was a private citizen and that it was his decision and right to join whichever political party he chooses.
As he rested at his hotel, Try chatted with Minister of Agriculture Sarwono Kusumaatmadja and Edi. Sarwono reported that Leader of the PKPB in the DPR/Treasurer of the PKPB continues to gather the necessary support from within the PKPB to both request for an Extraordinary PKPB National Congress and be victorious in the contest for the chairmanship. Try told both Sarwono and Edi about his conversation with Minister of Home Affairs Sintong Panjaitan.
Edi tended to agree with Sintong’s advice that the aim is to ensure Tutut’s ultimate defeat rather than simply a victory for Akbar’s. Sarwono said that Akbar understands that Try would have his own considerations but is nevertheless hoping for Try to declare his support for Akbar somewhere along the line.
30th May 2003:
Try and Tuti began the day with a visited the Huis ten Bosch to pay their respects to Queen of the Netherlands Beatrix and have a photo-op. Try then departed to the Binnehof where he was welcomed by Prime Minister of the Netherlands Hans Dijskstal and Minister of Foreign Affairs Jan Peter Balkenende. Try was joined by Marzuki Darusman and Edi Sudrajat.
As they had only met four months prior, Try and Dijkstal did not agree on anything new. Dijkstal would recall attempting to speak about progress in the “humanitarian intervention” in Yugoslavia but that Try would have none of that, focusing instead on Afghanistan. Try said that Afghanistan needed to be bolstered so that it had the capacity to fight the remnants of the Taliban and Al Qaeda including with aid and that in Indonesia’s case, the aid it is able to provide Afghanistan is to procure the Soviet T-54/T-55 tanks and pay the Afghanistan government with cash. Try concluded by saying this was a win-win situation for Indonesia, Afghanistan, and all those who participated in Operation Enduring Freedom if only those “who dislike to see such things” would get out of the way.
Dijkstal was thrown off-balance and it fell to Balkenende to explain the situation. Saying that because of the United Kingdom’s non-participation, Australia had committed more troops to Yugoslavia, that as a result “they have more of a say” within the United States’ coalition, and that they are not comfortable with Indonesia purchasing such weapons. Balkenende then conveyed Australia’s sentiments in coalition deliberations, namely “What are Indonesia’s intentions trying to get more weapons on top of the military aid given by the United States and Australia and the weapons credit by Russia just a few short months ago?”
“We are always on the record as saying that our economy is at a place where we can afford such defense spending and that we are trying to have a level of defense spending that reflects our current position in international affairs whereas previously our defense spending was low”, Marzuki replied “To that we add that military aid and weapons credit does not mean we will not be spending more on weapons, four months ago was an old fiscal year, now we’re in a new financial year.”
“Indonesia feels aggrieved that we’re trying to do things the right way by communicating with those participating in Enduring Freedom, including the Netherlands when expressing our interest in the tanks” Try said “We could have just turned around and gone to the Russians, they probably have a larger stock of those tanks, but we didn’t. I’m just wondering if doing things the right way is the wrong way to go?”
Dijkstal and Balkenende glanced at each other as though to note what Try had said so that it could be passed along to the White House.
Attempting to change the tone of the meeting, Dijkstal said with a broad smile that the Netherlands did not have the reservations that “others” have about Indonesia procuring military equipment and asked Try if Indonesia would be interested in Damen’s products to add to the 4 Sigma Corvettes already delivered. Try was politely non-commital saying that Minister of Defense and Security Wiranto was at Damen’s shipyard at that very moment and that he would wait for Wiranto’s report.
Not long after that the meeting ended and Try attended Friday Prayer at Al-Hikmah Mosque before returning to his hotel to have lunch. As luck would have it, Wiranto was the only one of his delegation who had returned; having spent the entire morning at Damen. Try told Wiranto what had happened and how Dijkstal suddenly turned “salesman” and started asking him if he wanted more Damen ships.
“It’s not only Damen, Mr. President”, Wiranto reported “In Brazil it was Avibras and I’ve got meetings with lined up with people from defense ministries and the defense industry alike at the G-8.”
“So the chances of us getting those tanks from Afghanistan are slim then, Wir?” asked Edi.
“It’s very likely we’ll be notified of this at the G-8”, said Wiranto “But as I’ve said, when we communicated our interest in those Soviet tanks to the participants of Operation Enduring Freedom that we advertised to a lot of people we’re on the lookout for weapons. This on top of other pieces of information such as that we’re increasing defense spending, that we’re looking to strengthen our military and that the President has another 5 years.”
Try turned to Marzuki, non-verbally asking for his opinion.
“Weaponry and military equipment, that’s where we can try to drive a wedge between Australia and the rest of the West” Marzuki said “Let’s try to make the United States at least feel annoyed that they’ve listened to Australia twice, the first time on the F-16s and the second time on these tanks, and the consequence is us looking for weapons from sources they don’t necessarily approve.
And if we buy Russian, we’ll be trying to drive a wedge between Russia and China too. Russia can’t ignore an market for its weapons and there’s the added of bonus of showing its independence vis and vis China.”
There was silence between the four.
“Well, that we got invited to the big kids’ table is a lucky break for our nation”, Try “Let’s make sure it counts.”
---
Much as in OTL, India and Brazil are advocating UNSC reforms. Much as in OTL, China is not warm towards the idea of India in the UNSC.
For those missing my “around the world update”, we get a mini-update of what happens in South Asia specifically in Pakistan. Aziz Khan taking steps parallel to that of Musharraf in OTL to consolidate power except it reflects his leanings.
On OTL India’s “two-front” mindset https://piyushchaubey.com/uploads/pdfs/bbcffbc80fc4275c69f3285e7a354d9e.pdf
The significance of Marzuki being the one to ask about Russia in the meeting with Vajpayee is based on information regarding Marzuki’s life where some interesting trivia could be found:
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marzuki_Darusman)
-He’s the son of Suryono Darusman a diplomat and Indonesian Ambassador to the Soviet Union (1973-1976)
-He spent his formative years in Europe following his father around on the latter’s postings. According to Tempo, he event went to university in East Germany https://majalah.tempo.co/read/memoa...n-didepak-dari-dpr-karena-ingin-jadi-presiden
OTL Marzuki went on to become a human rights advocate/activists and Attorney General under Wahid so we don’t really get to see him talk about foreign policy except in the context of human rights but it’s intriguing what possible thoughts or opinions he has on foreign affairs because of the time he had spent in Europe and seeing his father being ambassador to the USSR.
Uzbekistan is not in ITTL SCO. It has chosen to remain to be part of GUUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, and Moldova).
I wanted Try to visit a nation which is a part of the US coalition en route to the G-8 so that he can express his grievances. It came down to Spain and the Netherlands. My gut told me to go with the Netherlands. I’m saving the United Kingdom for the G-8 itself.
Why is Indonesia attending the G-8? Because it is the practice of the G-8 to invite certain non G-8 nations to G-8 summits (http://www.g8.utoronto.ca/oxford/g8rg-ox-objectives2007.pdf)
Good balancing acts
I have a gut feeling that it's not South Africa who would get that seat....
Whelp, fortunately Bangladesh only have nuclear power plants, no weapons yet....
Well, India has the same predicament as Indonesia.
Lol
The wonders of the Multipolar Moment
Item ditto.
Nice to have Indonesia having lots of strategic allies for going forward.
I'd say Try and Marzuki playing it off very well for the summit.
A pity i would have for them is for the Soekarno-era Exiles. At least Yusril is not there.
Lol
When the time is right, i hope.
Try playing like Vajpayee to drive a wedge between the Western Allies to keep the Multipolar Moment going is a welcomed moment.
That's only fair for Indonesia...
...especially this one.
That's to be expected from the non-Aussies WAllies, ahahahahaha....
Item ditto.
Let's go!
Looks like India is going to be the next big brother for Indonesia after Japan, especially when Ginandjar is Japan-inclined and Marzuki is more neutral.
Oh, very interesting... would be cool to have those exiles going at Marzuki for help some time down the line. Again, at least he's no Yusril.
They got Indonesia's back for that one, nice.
The 2003's G8 is going to be veeery interesting....
I have a very bad feeling about this...my guts telling me that actually the breaking behind the scenes...
Huh...didn't know that the NU also have foreign mosques...(to be fair, in Malaysia, the states religious councils have the absolute say in terms of the all of the mosque management, rather than the fragmented arrangement in western countries)
Considering the reputation of Indonesia ITTL...perhaps the possibility of the Netherlands forcing the handover of some of the mosques in the Netherlands from the extremist (whether it is in the flavor of the Saudi Salafist or the Turkish Diyanets) to the NU isn't in the realms of ASB after all/s
But keeping this in mind...I do now genuinely wonder if one of the strategies to annoy Luo Gan would be to ask Gus Dur (& even perhaps Amien Rais to ensure balance) to help with a few minor things. (The fact that those rather small mosques each have their own wiki page while the big Al-Hikmah Mosque doesn't, seems really odd)
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P/s: Sorry for double post but....
Clarify a bit for me (isn't they had already recognize the PRC and distances itself from Mandela's Two China policy by this point?)
Depends whether Sarwono's clique got their way or not.
I pointed out to certain North African country with an aspiration for a continental leadership.
Ehh...I feel like are probably too irrelevant (and more importantly too erratic) in China eyes for it to be a consideration...
Yeah, but who knows what the Chinese has up their sleeves?
Maybe it would be just in time for a collision course to be happened.
Also nice to know that you know which country i'm talking about.
I forgot from where i read this trivia, but Indonesia's Independence Debt to the Dutch since 1949 (stopped in 1956 and continued since 1966) has only been repaid entirely in 2005 (or 2006-9? IIRC it's on SBY's first term that the debt has been repaid fully).
Would it played something in the Indonesian-Dutch relations, or it has been also put on McCain's 10 years-long Debt Moratorium?
Would it played something in the Indonesian-Dutch relations, or it has been also put on McCain's 10 years-long Debt Moratorium?
According to WIkipedia that debt was largely paid off immediately after independence and by 1960 only 600 million guilders were left, about 150 million dollars / 830 million in 1998 dollars. In contrast, our OTL IMF bailout was 10 billion.
Honestly...how much was the interest rate incurred on those debt...because I feel like this has a similar "importance" to the South Sea Bubble debt that was incurred to the UK...i.e perhaps symbolically has historical significance...but nothing else...either diplomatically or financially...so perhaps nothing change ITTL unless the interest rate is being lowered enough thanks to the better economy and thus encouraged the repayment..?
Mandela switched from Two Chinas to just recognizing Beijing on 1st January 1998. Much too early in the TL for the butterflies to have any impact.
The following will be in attendance:
The G-8 Nations:
*President Alain Juppe (France)
*President John McCain (United States)
*Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama (Japan)
*Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder (Germany)
*Prime Minister Gordon Brown (United Kingdom)
*Prime Minister Francesco Rutelli (Italy)
*Prime Minister Paul Martin (Canada)
*President Yevgeny Primakov (Russia)
And the invitees are:
*President Luo Gan (China)
*Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee (India)
*President Roseana Sarney (Brazil)
*President Thabo Mbeki (South Africa)
*President Vicente Fox (Mexico)
*Crown Prince Abdullah (Saudi Arabia)
*President Leonid Kuchma (Ukraine)
*Prime Minister Khaleda Zia (Bangladesh) (Chair of Non-Aligned Movement)
*Prime Minister Costas Simitis (Greece) (Presidency of the Council of the EU)
*President Romano Prodi (European Commission of the EU)
*Secretary General Kofi Annan (United Nations)
*Managing Director Stanley Fischer (IMF)
*Caio Koch-Weser (World Bank)
254: The 2003 G-8 Summit Part I
31st May 2003:
President Try Sutrisno began the day at his hotel by recording an interview with NPO 1 which he used to promote Indonesia’s economy. After that he huddled together with Chief of BAKIN Ari Sudewo and State Secretary Edi Sudrajat. Ari reported that he must rush back to Jakarta because Chief of ABRI Intelligence Agency’s condition continues to decline and that he might not “have very long”. Edi said that Amirul should have gotten a liver transplant but Ari said that this was too late.
“And any way he might not like the disruption to his work figuring what GAM, OPM, and FRETILIN are up to”, Ari said “I told him to get some rest but from what I hear and he’s working from bed to analyze the information we got at Gabon.”
Try looked at Edi.
“Tell him to stop working and start spending his time with his family”, Try said “He can consider that to be an order from me…”
“Yes, Mr. President”, Ari said “It’s just that…
“He’s done enough, he needs to spend time with his family in however long he has left”, Try said “There’s no need for him to continuously monitor the OPM, the GAM, and the FRETILIN and whatever individual plans they have…”
When the three were finished however, they walked out of their private meeting to the Indonesian delegation sitting around the television. Minister of Foreign Affairs Marzuki Darusman began telling the others to make way for Try. On the screen were Premier of China Wu Bangguo and Prime Minister of Malaysia Najib Razak shaking hands looking very happy.
“Malaysia just got 100 Type 88 Tanks and 12 Shenyang J-8 Aircrafts from the People’s Republic of China, Mr. President”, reported Minister of Defense and Security Wiranto.
It was in that mood that Ari took the long flight back home to Jakarta while Try and his delegation took the much shorter flight south to Geneva, Switzerland where they were driven just over the French border to Evian-les-Bains where the G-8 Summit was being held. The Indonesian press following along were told that the government continues to study the situation.
After resting for a few hours, it was off to the Evian Resort which was to function at the venue of the summit the next day. There, Try accompanied by Minister of Foreign Affairs Marzuki Darusman and Minister of Economics and National Development Planning Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti met with a G-8 leader who had arrived early, Prime Minister of Canada Paul Martin. Martin brought along Minister of Foreign Affairs John Manley and Minister of Finance Jim Peterson to the meeting.
Try found Martin to be pleasant but having a set of determined opinions behind the smiles. Though expressing happiness that Indonesia had not joined BRIC and hoping that the “occasion” never arises that Indonesia would join this organization, he said he “expected nothing less” from the nation that got a moratorium on the repayment of debt for 10 years for its support on the War On Terror. Try countered by gently reminding that this moratorium has been guaranteed by the White House and that the War On Terror is handicapped without the largest Islamic nation on the planet on board.
Martin countered that the guaranteed moratorium did not mean Canada would not urge Indonesia for further economic reform and to be concerned about the way Indonesia is using the additional funds from the moratorium. At this point, Peterson took over with the “urging” for more economic reform to mean that Indonesia should continue reducing tariffs as per its commitment to APEC as opposed to prioritizing AFTA. Dorodjatun said that Indonesia is committed to both APEC and AFTA but that it was prioritizing the resumption of AFTA because AFTA was the agreement that had previously been in effect.
Then it was Manley’s turn asking why Indonesia was looking to procure more weapons which got the by now Indonesian standard response (“We have been underspending on defense…") from Marzuki.
“What my Minister of Foreign Affairs is saying is, we’re too far away from Canada to be a threat no matter how many military equipment we procure, Mr. Prime Minister”, Try said causing Martin to laugh.
“Those who are closer to you tell me that they think differently, Mr. President”, Martin said with a smile.
“Well since you’re speaking for them, you can tell them I’ll be sure to watch their reaction to today’s developments”, Try said.
The meeting did not last long beyond that.
1st June 2003:
Try shook hands with President of France Alain Juppe and posed for pictures when he arrived to the Evian Resort for the G-8 Summit. He took his seat with the other invitees and found himself chatting with President of Mexico Vicente Fox. President of China Luo Gan also attended and Try nodded his head at him from afar to greet him. Luo nodded his head in acknowledgment and Try thought his smile looked a little smug.
The geopolitical impact of Malaysia procuring weapons from China far from the main topic at hand as the G-8 Summit underway. Juppe spoke about there being a multipolar world and called for dialogue and cooperation between the various “poles” of the world. But Juppe’s conciliatory message was quickly overshadowed by President of the United States John McCain who invited all those “who may have reservations” about the humanitarian intervention in Yugoslavia to participate in the reconstruction of Montenegro. This was countered by President of Russia Yevgeny Primakov who, while re-iterating that he would not go beyond providing military aid to Yugoslavia, reminded the summit that the ground invasion of Yugoslavia has not been sanctioned by the United Nations much less by NATO.
When the plenary session broke up, Try left the plenary hall to the room being used by the Indonesian delegation. Marzuki instructed a staff to play a tape that had only been recorded minutes earlier. It was a broadcast of the Australian Broadcasting Corporation’s Parliamentary Question time and Prime Minister of Australia Peter Costello was asked by a member of his own coalition about the government’s thoughts on Malaysia’s procurement of weapons from China.
“Simply put, Australia has good and constructive relations with China and Australia has good and constructive relations with Malaysia”, Costello said “So for these two to not only have good constructive relations but also to solidify these relations is a positive development for Australia and for Australia’s strategic position.”
After lunch as he went to his next meeting, a group of reporters and cameramen came to Try to ask what he thought about Malaysia’s procurement of Chinese weapons.
“What military equipment to procure and where to procure them from is a matter for the Malaysians”, Try said “Indonesia takes note accordingly of this development and hopes others in the region will take note accordingly.”
There was a question about Australia’s response but Try brushed it off, repeating that Indonesia takes notes of developments.
From there, Try took Marzuki and Edi to a meeting with McCain who was accompanied by Secretary of State Richard Williamson, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Richard Wolfowitz.
McCain congratulated Try on his re-election and expressed his belief that Indonesia would continue to be a bulwark against Islamic extremism. He also thanked Indonesia for keeping a “low-key” stance during the first few months of the humanitarian intervention and that the weapons promised in January 2003 would arrive as quickly as possible. And then came the news that Try had been expecting, that perhaps Indonesia’s interest in the T-54/T-55 tanks in Afghanistan “would not be advisable” due to transport factors saying that Afghanistan did not have the means to transport the tanks.
There was silence in the room for a while though all eyes now were on Try. Try could see, even on McCain’s face, that what was just said was a piece of diplomatic sugarcoating.
“I accept it if would not be possible for Indonesia to procure certain equipment, Mr. President”, Try said “I do find it difficult, however, if the reason why Indonesia cannot procure equipment is because there are those who don’t like the idea of Indonesia strengthening its military. Because it’s twice now that this has happened first over the F-16s and now this; and it’s galling that the same people who has tripped over twice are now saying it’s all right for others to get weapons.”
McCain massaged his head and then he let loose.
“Mr. President, I have my priorities and I have to make sure that my decisions serve those priorities”, McCain said “The Australians has now sent over more personnel and equipment to Yugoslavia when it became apparent that the United Kingdom will not participate, the Australians are keeping China’s involvement to very negligible levels because they have the leverage of coal over China. If they’re concerned about something, I have to address it because Australia helps me serve my priorities. And if their concern is you then it’s simple, I have to address it…it’s as simple as that.”
Marzuki and Edi felt Try coming up with a response, tried to intervene so that he would not open his mouth but Try beat them to the punch.
“If Indonesia cannot procure equipment in places where Australia can exert its influence”, Try said “Then we will look elsewhere and not necessarily in places you will like, Mr. President.”
“What you say is redundant because you’ve already gone to the Russians and have gotten something, it’s redundant for you to say what you have just said”, McCain snapped as his face went red “And yet here you are without anyone standing between your Air Force and getting a Sukhoi Wing. You don’t think there wasn’t anybody in my ear trying to tell me that there should be consequences for that?
What about last week, you in Brazil saying that you’re not going to join BRIC because the “circumstances” hasn’t emerged yet? By “circumstances” you mean if something happens to the weapons that were promised to you earlier in the year or something happens to the debt moratorium, you’ll join BRIC and start singing from their multipolar emerging economy hymn sheet, right? You might as well just say it out loud that you’re using BRIC as a sword of Damocles. You don’t think there wasn’t anybody in my ear telling me that I should just cancel that debt moratorium at that point?”
Try winced at the fact that McCain had figured out his gameplan.
“Yes, Indonesia is a valuable partner in the War On Terror and yes, in this situation there is something unjust about the way Indonesia is being prevented from strengthening its military” McCain explained “But make no mistake, I’ve already been more than fair with Indonesia. More than fair. Don’t come in here and say otherwise and threaten that you’re going to buy Russian or Iranian or hell, maybe even Iraqi for all I know…”
Marzuki and Williamson took over the meeting at that point as they formulated a statement about a “frank and productive” discussion between their two presidents. McCain looked impatient and looked like he had more useful things to do than try to mediate between Indonesia and Australia.
“Kena semprot deh”, Try muttered to Edi as the meeting came to a close.
Try laughed it off but Edi knew that Try was considering this to be a bad day already. Having the President of the United States yell at him was nothing for it was China selling Malaysia weapons with Australia apparently cheering them on was the real thing causing him stress.
---
I wanted China to increase its influence in SE Asia through Malaysia, counter Indonesia, and solidify its relationship with Malaysia. Considering Indonesia is strengthening its military what better way to respond than by selling Malaysia some weapons. In the OTL of course the MBT is the PT-91 Pendekar.
Canada’s hostile, the United States has bigger priorities, who’s going to help Indonesia’s cause at the G-8?
President Try Sutrisno began the day at his hotel by recording an interview with NPO 1 which he used to promote Indonesia’s economy. After that he huddled together with Chief of BAKIN Ari Sudewo and State Secretary Edi Sudrajat. Ari reported that he must rush back to Jakarta because Chief of ABRI Intelligence Agency’s condition continues to decline and that he might not “have very long”. Edi said that Amirul should have gotten a liver transplant but Ari said that this was too late.
“And any way he might not like the disruption to his work figuring what GAM, OPM, and FRETILIN are up to”, Ari said “I told him to get some rest but from what I hear and he’s working from bed to analyze the information we got at Gabon.”
Try looked at Edi.
“Tell him to stop working and start spending his time with his family”, Try said “He can consider that to be an order from me…”
“Yes, Mr. President”, Ari said “It’s just that…
“He’s done enough, he needs to spend time with his family in however long he has left”, Try said “There’s no need for him to continuously monitor the OPM, the GAM, and the FRETILIN and whatever individual plans they have…”
When the three were finished however, they walked out of their private meeting to the Indonesian delegation sitting around the television. Minister of Foreign Affairs Marzuki Darusman began telling the others to make way for Try. On the screen were Premier of China Wu Bangguo and Prime Minister of Malaysia Najib Razak shaking hands looking very happy.
“Malaysia just got 100 Type 88 Tanks and 12 Shenyang J-8 Aircrafts from the People’s Republic of China, Mr. President”, reported Minister of Defense and Security Wiranto.
It was in that mood that Ari took the long flight back home to Jakarta while Try and his delegation took the much shorter flight south to Geneva, Switzerland where they were driven just over the French border to Evian-les-Bains where the G-8 Summit was being held. The Indonesian press following along were told that the government continues to study the situation.
After resting for a few hours, it was off to the Evian Resort which was to function at the venue of the summit the next day. There, Try accompanied by Minister of Foreign Affairs Marzuki Darusman and Minister of Economics and National Development Planning Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti met with a G-8 leader who had arrived early, Prime Minister of Canada Paul Martin. Martin brought along Minister of Foreign Affairs John Manley and Minister of Finance Jim Peterson to the meeting.
Try found Martin to be pleasant but having a set of determined opinions behind the smiles. Though expressing happiness that Indonesia had not joined BRIC and hoping that the “occasion” never arises that Indonesia would join this organization, he said he “expected nothing less” from the nation that got a moratorium on the repayment of debt for 10 years for its support on the War On Terror. Try countered by gently reminding that this moratorium has been guaranteed by the White House and that the War On Terror is handicapped without the largest Islamic nation on the planet on board.
Martin countered that the guaranteed moratorium did not mean Canada would not urge Indonesia for further economic reform and to be concerned about the way Indonesia is using the additional funds from the moratorium. At this point, Peterson took over with the “urging” for more economic reform to mean that Indonesia should continue reducing tariffs as per its commitment to APEC as opposed to prioritizing AFTA. Dorodjatun said that Indonesia is committed to both APEC and AFTA but that it was prioritizing the resumption of AFTA because AFTA was the agreement that had previously been in effect.
Then it was Manley’s turn asking why Indonesia was looking to procure more weapons which got the by now Indonesian standard response (“We have been underspending on defense…") from Marzuki.
“What my Minister of Foreign Affairs is saying is, we’re too far away from Canada to be a threat no matter how many military equipment we procure, Mr. Prime Minister”, Try said causing Martin to laugh.
“Those who are closer to you tell me that they think differently, Mr. President”, Martin said with a smile.
“Well since you’re speaking for them, you can tell them I’ll be sure to watch their reaction to today’s developments”, Try said.
The meeting did not last long beyond that.
1st June 2003:
Try shook hands with President of France Alain Juppe and posed for pictures when he arrived to the Evian Resort for the G-8 Summit. He took his seat with the other invitees and found himself chatting with President of Mexico Vicente Fox. President of China Luo Gan also attended and Try nodded his head at him from afar to greet him. Luo nodded his head in acknowledgment and Try thought his smile looked a little smug.
The geopolitical impact of Malaysia procuring weapons from China far from the main topic at hand as the G-8 Summit underway. Juppe spoke about there being a multipolar world and called for dialogue and cooperation between the various “poles” of the world. But Juppe’s conciliatory message was quickly overshadowed by President of the United States John McCain who invited all those “who may have reservations” about the humanitarian intervention in Yugoslavia to participate in the reconstruction of Montenegro. This was countered by President of Russia Yevgeny Primakov who, while re-iterating that he would not go beyond providing military aid to Yugoslavia, reminded the summit that the ground invasion of Yugoslavia has not been sanctioned by the United Nations much less by NATO.
When the plenary session broke up, Try left the plenary hall to the room being used by the Indonesian delegation. Marzuki instructed a staff to play a tape that had only been recorded minutes earlier. It was a broadcast of the Australian Broadcasting Corporation’s Parliamentary Question time and Prime Minister of Australia Peter Costello was asked by a member of his own coalition about the government’s thoughts on Malaysia’s procurement of weapons from China.
“Simply put, Australia has good and constructive relations with China and Australia has good and constructive relations with Malaysia”, Costello said “So for these two to not only have good constructive relations but also to solidify these relations is a positive development for Australia and for Australia’s strategic position.”
After lunch as he went to his next meeting, a group of reporters and cameramen came to Try to ask what he thought about Malaysia’s procurement of Chinese weapons.
“What military equipment to procure and where to procure them from is a matter for the Malaysians”, Try said “Indonesia takes note accordingly of this development and hopes others in the region will take note accordingly.”
There was a question about Australia’s response but Try brushed it off, repeating that Indonesia takes notes of developments.
From there, Try took Marzuki and Edi to a meeting with McCain who was accompanied by Secretary of State Richard Williamson, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Richard Wolfowitz.
McCain congratulated Try on his re-election and expressed his belief that Indonesia would continue to be a bulwark against Islamic extremism. He also thanked Indonesia for keeping a “low-key” stance during the first few months of the humanitarian intervention and that the weapons promised in January 2003 would arrive as quickly as possible. And then came the news that Try had been expecting, that perhaps Indonesia’s interest in the T-54/T-55 tanks in Afghanistan “would not be advisable” due to transport factors saying that Afghanistan did not have the means to transport the tanks.
There was silence in the room for a while though all eyes now were on Try. Try could see, even on McCain’s face, that what was just said was a piece of diplomatic sugarcoating.
“I accept it if would not be possible for Indonesia to procure certain equipment, Mr. President”, Try said “I do find it difficult, however, if the reason why Indonesia cannot procure equipment is because there are those who don’t like the idea of Indonesia strengthening its military. Because it’s twice now that this has happened first over the F-16s and now this; and it’s galling that the same people who has tripped over twice are now saying it’s all right for others to get weapons.”
McCain massaged his head and then he let loose.
“Mr. President, I have my priorities and I have to make sure that my decisions serve those priorities”, McCain said “The Australians has now sent over more personnel and equipment to Yugoslavia when it became apparent that the United Kingdom will not participate, the Australians are keeping China’s involvement to very negligible levels because they have the leverage of coal over China. If they’re concerned about something, I have to address it because Australia helps me serve my priorities. And if their concern is you then it’s simple, I have to address it…it’s as simple as that.”
Marzuki and Edi felt Try coming up with a response, tried to intervene so that he would not open his mouth but Try beat them to the punch.
“If Indonesia cannot procure equipment in places where Australia can exert its influence”, Try said “Then we will look elsewhere and not necessarily in places you will like, Mr. President.”
“What you say is redundant because you’ve already gone to the Russians and have gotten something, it’s redundant for you to say what you have just said”, McCain snapped as his face went red “And yet here you are without anyone standing between your Air Force and getting a Sukhoi Wing. You don’t think there wasn’t anybody in my ear trying to tell me that there should be consequences for that?
What about last week, you in Brazil saying that you’re not going to join BRIC because the “circumstances” hasn’t emerged yet? By “circumstances” you mean if something happens to the weapons that were promised to you earlier in the year or something happens to the debt moratorium, you’ll join BRIC and start singing from their multipolar emerging economy hymn sheet, right? You might as well just say it out loud that you’re using BRIC as a sword of Damocles. You don’t think there wasn’t anybody in my ear telling me that I should just cancel that debt moratorium at that point?”
Try winced at the fact that McCain had figured out his gameplan.
“Yes, Indonesia is a valuable partner in the War On Terror and yes, in this situation there is something unjust about the way Indonesia is being prevented from strengthening its military” McCain explained “But make no mistake, I’ve already been more than fair with Indonesia. More than fair. Don’t come in here and say otherwise and threaten that you’re going to buy Russian or Iranian or hell, maybe even Iraqi for all I know…”
Marzuki and Williamson took over the meeting at that point as they formulated a statement about a “frank and productive” discussion between their two presidents. McCain looked impatient and looked like he had more useful things to do than try to mediate between Indonesia and Australia.
“Kena semprot deh”, Try muttered to Edi as the meeting came to a close.
Try laughed it off but Edi knew that Try was considering this to be a bad day already. Having the President of the United States yell at him was nothing for it was China selling Malaysia weapons with Australia apparently cheering them on was the real thing causing him stress.
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I wanted China to increase its influence in SE Asia through Malaysia, counter Indonesia, and solidify its relationship with Malaysia. Considering Indonesia is strengthening its military what better way to respond than by selling Malaysia some weapons. In the OTL of course the MBT is the PT-91 Pendekar.
Canada’s hostile, the United States has bigger priorities, who’s going to help Indonesia’s cause at the G-8?
Preparing my F for Pak Amirul, and Try still doesn't know the ISA's members are... well, in an alliance.
Sonova....
Sorry, eh? We're too busy to borrow our neighbors' strength to collectively going against China instead of strengthening your alliance. Heck, Japan even got it already... but i hope without Ginandjar on board, they would stayed warm with us.
Well, i hope the Aussies would not be that stupid.
Primakov is still the sanest "pole" leader so far.
Speaking of being not that stupid... hey, why i got a dejavu? Last time i uttered that phrase is right before Ginandjar met with Tutut without Try's approval lol.
The Canucks, Chinese, and Aussies... Well, we still have many countries to be counted on at G-8.
Long time no see, Mr. Wolfowitz! And McCain too.
Lol, as long as Khatami leads Iran, Iran would be still reliable on the moment, at least at being Non-Aligned. But well, McCain being a bipolarist, just like Luo Gan....
Ah here we go, a lecture again.
There, he said those words (or should i said, "There, he let his intrusive thoughts win."). And i believe it would not going as well as the last time.
Ah well, not as lucky for now, Pak Try.
There goes my wishes for a Try-Saddam Summit for at least in 2003, lol.
Well, well... But the G-8 summit is not just USA and China.
DARI SABANG SAMPAI MERAUKE, BERJAJAR PULAU-PULAU
SAMBUNG MENYAMBUNG MENJA-
*ahem
AUX ARMES, LES CITOYENS!!!!
Pardon, but it's a long time coming for me awokawokawok.
Also, just as funnily enough, it's a third time occuring already that when i'm just over rereading a particular plot thread, you've uploaded a new threadmark that sort-of continues on it. And yeah, the country whose national anthem i screamed here also appeared (albeit not as much as the other three countries) in the exact last plot thread i've read.