In our timeline when the Japanese launch the Indian Ocean Raid in 1942 the invasion of Malaya and Singapore had succeeded and the invasion of the Dutch East Indies recently wrapped up. Do people think that the Japanese would have still launched the raid if they were still fighting in Malaya and the DEI? I'm thinking of a scenario where the invasion of Malaya has bogged down roughly half way from the landing sites to the Johor Strait, and, if it has gone ahead, on Sumatra where they have successfully captured oilfields and refinery near Palembang and hold the south-eastern third of the island but the rest is still held by Dutch and Commonwealth forces.
Indian Ocean Raid
- Thread starter Simon
- Start date
If the Malay barrier had been held the Japanese could not have got the Kido Butai past it into the Indian Ocean.
Probably not. I understand that some of the Genesis of Pearl Harbor was preparation for attacks on Singapore or Manila. If there is any kind of Naval force left in the area maybe the KB will try to duplicate their success by attacking Singapore?
If I read your post right Java and the Eastern part of the Malayan Barrier are still in Allied hands? In that case I concur with the others that the Japanese would probably not yet make a foray into the Indian Ocean. They would more likely use the Kido Butai to capure Ambon and Timor ASAP though, and then a foray into the Indian Ocean (though maybe not all the way to Ceylon) becomes very much a possiblity as a way to cut off Allied supply lines and salvage their Malayan situation.
Huh, My impression is generally that the IJN saw its job to fight other naval forces, not support invasions. I wonder how the logic would fall if the islands were the barrier between them and attacking other naval forces?
If they hold Java and have the south-east Sumatra than gives them control of the Sunda Strait, alternatively they can go to the east of Java.
Apologies, I wasn't very clear. Basically everything else has gone to plan so all of the Dutch East Indies has been captured except for the central and north-western two thirds of Sumatra, plus the south-eastern half of Malaya.
Well, if they have access, and the British Fleet is still based at Ceylon, then I don't see why they would not. Destroying the main British Fleet in the region effectively makes the Indian Ocean their lake for the time being. Basically no reinforcements can get through. And as I mentioned above, as far as the IJN is concerned destroying the British feet would be their only major objective in the region. Unless their is a greater threat from the USN than there was IOTL I would guess they would go for the raid.
Indirectly for sure. Cutting off enemy reinforcements, whittling down enemy air units and escorting invasion fleets. Directly not so much that is true, if we are talking about capital units anyway. Of course I do have my doubts about that policy if the capture of the DEI and it's oilfields runs into problems. Can't fight the Decisive Battle of the oil reserves run dry.
In that case a - if not the - Indian Ocean raid is probably on as ArtosStark says. It would mean a lot of problems for the remaining Allied positions in SEA.